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Why Is Theravance Bio (TBPH) Down 3.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Theravance Biopharma (TBPH - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Theravance Bio due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Q1 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates

Theravance reported first-quarter 2023 net loss of 32 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 27 cents. The figure excludes restructuring and related costs, including which the loss was 35 cents per share compared with 34 cents in the prior-year period. The company recorded a loss of 22 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenues of $10.4 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.8 million and our model estimates of $12.4 million. Revenues declined 21% year over year due to a milestone payment received from Pfizer in the year-ago quarter.

Quarter in Detail

The top line almost fully comprised of Viatris collaboration revenues in relation to Yupelri (revefenacin).

Unfavorable changes in ordering patterns hurt sales of Yupelri in the first quarter, which lowered Theravance’s share of profits.

Research & development expenses totaled $14.6 million, down 37.3% from the year-ago quarter’s level. Selling, general & administrative expenses rose 7.9% year over year to $19.2 million.

2023 Guidance

Theravance expects adjusted research & development expenses (excluding one-time restructuring expenses and share-based compensation) in the $35-$45 million range. Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses are projected between $45 million and $55 million.

TBPH expects to generate adjusted profit by the second half of 2023.

Capital Return Program

In September 2022, Theravance initiated a $250 million capital return program. This included purchasing GSK’s entire equity stake in Theravance Biopharma, consisting of approximately 9.6 million shares at $9.75 per unit. 

TBPH has authorized a $75 million increase to the existing $250 million capital return program, bringing the total value to $325 million. The company has repurchased shares worth $183.3 million since its inception. The remaining $109.7 million, as of Apr 30, 2023, is expected to be completed by the end of 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.95% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Theravance Bio has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Theravance Bio has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Theravance Bio belongs to the Zacks Medical - Drugs industry. Another stock from the same industry, ImmunoGen , has gained 10.2% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2023.

ImmunoGen reported revenues of $49.87 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +31%. EPS of -$0.16 for the same period compares with -$0.10 a year ago.

For the current quarter, ImmunoGen is expected to post a loss of $0.17 per share, indicating a change of +29.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2% over the last 30 days.

ImmunoGen has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.


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