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How to Find Strong Consumer Discretionary Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
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Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Carnival?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Carnival (CCL - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) three days from its next quarterly earnings release on June 26, 2023, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at -$0.33 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the -$0.33 Most Accurate Estimate and the -$0.35 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Carnival has an Earnings ESP of +3.82%. Investors should also know that CCL is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
CCL is part of a big group of Consumer Discretionary stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Caesars Entertainment (CZR - Free Report) as well.
Caesars Entertainment, which is readying to report earnings on August 1, 2023, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.49 a share, and CZR is 39 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Caesars Entertainment is $0.34, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +43.18%.
CCL and CZR's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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How to Find Strong Consumer Discretionary Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Carnival?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Carnival (CCL - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) three days from its next quarterly earnings release on June 26, 2023, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at -$0.33 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the -$0.33 Most Accurate Estimate and the -$0.35 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Carnival has an Earnings ESP of +3.82%. Investors should also know that CCL is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
CCL is part of a big group of Consumer Discretionary stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Caesars Entertainment (CZR - Free Report) as well.
Caesars Entertainment, which is readying to report earnings on August 1, 2023, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.49 a share, and CZR is 39 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Caesars Entertainment is $0.34, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +43.18%.
CCL and CZR's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>