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Dexcom (DXCM) to Launch New Product in 2024, Ups Long-Term View

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Dexcom (DXCM - Free Report) announced its strategy to expand the accessibility of its glucose sensing technology products to millions of other patients than currently covered. Its plan includes expansion in international markets and launch of a new product targeting diabetic patients who don’t use insulin yet. The company also stated that private payers are including its products under their coverage, earlier than expected.

New Product Launch

Dexcom is currently developing a new product with a 15-day sensor, designed specifically for diabetic patients who are not on insulin. The company is planning to launch the new product in the United States in 2024.

DXCM estimated that almost 70% of Americans living with diabetes will likely be eligible for using the new product to track and manage their glucose levels. The product will also offer a new software experience for diabetic patients not using insulin.

International Launch

The company continues to expand its presence in new countries. Its Dexcom G7 is now available in 14 countries. DXCM launched Dexcom ONE in Argentina earlier this year, marking its entry into Latin America.

Payer Coverage

In April, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, administering the government’s Medicare program, expanded its coverage for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) products to include additional patients. The added coverage now includes CGM for type II diabetic patients on basal insulin.

Dexcom estimates that the expanded coverage should increase targeted patient population by millions. Per the press release, it is estimated that 3-4 million people in the United States have a history of problematic hypoglycemia and majority of them are now included under Medicare coverage.

Moreover, commercial insurers or private payers are also following Medicare’s steps to cover this additional patient population. The inclusion of type II diabetic patients on basal insulin by the commercial players has been faster than expected, with 60% commercial coverage for this population already in place.

The expanded coverage will provide the patient population with access to Dexcom G7, the most accurate CGM system. This should boost Dexcom’s top-line growth going forward.

Dexcom Raises Long-Term Outlook

Based on robust demand for its products in the last two years, DXCM has raised its guidance for 2025. The company now expects a $500 million increase in revenues (from that projected earlier).

Dexcom now projects revenues of $4.6-$5.1 billion in 2025, up from the previous guided range of $4.0-$4.5 billion.

The company raised its guidance for adjusted operating and EBIDTA margins by 1 percentage point to 21% and 31%, respectively. However, it continues to expect adjusted gross margin of 65%.

Dexcom’s revenues are anticipated to grow 17-21% in 2023 to $3.4-$3.515 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues in 2023 is pegged at $3.49 billion. The bottom line is expected to improve 23% to $1.07 in the same year.

Price Performance

Shares of Dexcom have risen 10% year to date compared with the industry’s 7% growth. The S&P 500 Index has risen 14% in the said time frame.

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Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider

Dexcom currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks from the broader medical space are Hologic (HOLX - Free Report) , Alcon (ALC - Free Report) and Perrigo (PRGO - Free Report) , each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Hologic has an estimated growth rate of 5% for fiscal 2024. The company’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 27.32%.

HOLX’s shares have risen 8.4% year to date compared with the industry's 6.4% growth.

Alcon has an estimated long-term growth rate of 14.9%. Its earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and met the same once, delivering an average surprise of 8.85%.

ALC’s shares have rallied 17.2% year to date compared with the industry’s 6.4% growth.

Perrigo’s earnings are expected to improve 24.6% in 2023. The strong momentum is likely to continue in 2024 as well. PRGO’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the same twice, delivering an average negative surprise of 0.79%.

The company’s shares have lost 1.9% year to date against the industry’s 4.8% growth.


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