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Will UnitedHealth's (UNH) UnitedHealthcare Unit Aid Q2 Earnings?

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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) is set to release its second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 14, before the opening bell. As the company has significant exposure to the healthcare business, continued membership growth is likely to have aided the quarterly performance. Community-based and senior offerings, as well as Commercial Domestic Group, are expected to have aided the unit.

UnitedHealthcare Business

Through this segment, UNH offers healthcare benefits around the world. While it has significant exposure to the Medicare and Medicaid markets, it also serves individuals and employers. The defensive properties of the sector enable UnitedHealth to maintain its momentum despite economic headwinds.

In the last reported quarter, the segment’s revenues jumped 12.6% year over year to $70.5 billion, whereas operating income improved 14.3% to $4.3 billion.

UnitedHealthcare's Q1 Performance

Considering the unit’s products, premiums increased 12.5% year over year to $67.5 billion in the first quarter, whereas service revenues rose 1.6% to $2.6 billion. Total revenues from Employer & Individual Domestic, Medicare & Retirement, and Community & State businesses came in at $68.3 billion, increasing 13% year over year. Also, from global operations, UNH reported revenues of $2.2 billion, up 1.4% year over year.

Forecast for Q2 Segment Performance

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealthcare’s revenues indicates an 11.2% year-over-year increase from the year-ago level of $62.1 billion, whereas our estimate suggests a 9.3% rise. The consensus mark for second-quarter operating income signals a marginal year-over-year rise from $3,850 million a year ago.

As seniors undergoing elective procedures, which were delayed due to pandemic-related constraints, have resumed, medical costs are expected to have risen in the second quarter. This is likely to have left lower premiums in hand for UNH after payments. As such, the consensus mark for second-quarter 2023 medical care ratio is pegged at 82.66%, indicating a deterioration from the year-ago level of 81.50%, while our estimate of 83.20% suggests a higher slump.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2023 global revenues indicates 2.2% year-over-year decline from $2,247 million while our estimate implies a 2.6% fall. The consensus mark for UnitedHealthcare’s Community & State revenues suggests a 13.8% rise from the year-ago period’s $15.7 billion.

The consensus mark for Medicare & Retirement business’ revenues suggests 13.8% year-over-year growth from $28.6 billion a year ago while our estimate indicates a 9.8% improvement.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealthcare’s total number of people served in commercial domestic business indicates a 3.4% increase from the year-ago level of 26,490 thousand, while our estimate implies a 2.4% rise.

Final Thoughts

The UnitedHealthcare unit is expected to have positioned the company for remarkable year-over-year growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNH’s second-quarter earnings of $6.03 per share signals an 8.3% increase from the prior-year figure of $5.57. The consensus estimate for revenues of $90.6 billion indicates a 12.8% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

However, higher costs and expenses are likely to have affected the margins in the second quarter, making an earnings beat uncertain. Our estimate for medical costs indicates a 12.2% year-over-year increase while we expect operating expenses to have jumped 9.8%. Further, we expect the cost of products sold to have jumped 5.4% year over year in the second quarter.

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UnitedHealth this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

UnitedHealth has an Earnings ESP of -1.41% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Neogen Corporation (NEOG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +33.33% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Neogen’s earnings per share for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 3 cents, which improved 200% over the past 30 days. NEOG beat earnings estimates thrice in the past four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 123.4%.

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AstraZeneca’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 98 cents per share, signaling 14% year-over-year growth. AZN beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, the average surprise being 8.1%.

Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +33.72% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Community Health’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates an improvement of 88.5% from the year-ago period. The consensus mark for CYH’s revenues is pegged at more than $3 billion, signaling 2.9% year-over-year growth.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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