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Fee Income to Aid Truist's (TFC) Q2 Earnings, Lower NII to Ail
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Truist Financial (TFC - Free Report) is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 20, before market open. The to-be-reported quarter has witnessed a gradual slowdown in overall lending activities. Per the Federal Reserve’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial loan balances (accounting for roughly 50% of TFC’s total loans and leases held for investment) has waned.
We project total loans of $325.7 billion, indicating a 1.3% decline from the prior quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average earning assets is pegged at $503.1 billion, indicating almost a 1% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the metric is $500.6 billion, suggesting a marginal rise.
Further, the Fed increased rates by 25 basis points in May and kept the rates unchanged at 5-5.25% during the June FOMC meeting. This is likely to have had a favorable impact on TFC’s net interest margin (NIM) and net interest income (NII). Nonetheless, the inverted yield curve and rising funding costs, as rates remained high, are expected to have weighed on NIM to some extent.
The consensus estimate for NII (FTE) is $3.74 billion, which implies a 4.5% decline sequentially. We project the metric to decrease 3.3% to $3.79 billion.
The company expects NII to decline on higher deposit and funding costs.
Other Key Factors
Non-Interest Income: Deposit balances are not expected to have grown much in the second quarter as customers are looking for better returns elsewhere. This is likely to have had an adverse impact on revenues from service charges on deposits. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $246.1 million for the same implies a fall of 1.2% from the prior period’s reported number. Our estimate for the metric is $250 million.
Rising mortgage rates (the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage remaining above the 6% mark) and inflation weighed on mortgage originations and refinancing activities in the second quarter, which is expected to have hurt TFC’s mortgage banking income. We expect residential mortgage income to decline 18.9% sequentially to $98.9 million, while commercial mortgage income will remain relatively stable at $21.3 million.
The consensus estimate for investment banking and brokerage fees and commissions of $241.3 million indicates a 7.5% decrease sequentially. We project the same to slide 21.8% to $204 million.
Seasonally strong performance in the insurance business and benefits of business streamlining undertaken last year as expected to have supported Truist’s insurance income. The consensus estimate for insurance income of $889.4 million reflects a 9.4% increase. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $818.3 million.
A modest loan demand is expected to have offered support to the company’s lending-related fees. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same of $108.8 million indicates a rise of 2.6% from the prior quarter. We anticipate the metric to increase 3.4% to $109.6 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and payment-related fees of $240.7 million suggests 4.7% growth. We expect the same to rise 4.4% to $240.2 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $2.3 billion, which indicates a 2.9% rise sequentially. Our estimate for the same is $2.2 billion, implying a fall of 1.6%.
Expenses: Truist has been witnessing a continued rise in overall expenses over the past several quarters because of investments in technology upgrades and strategic expansion efforts. A similar trend is expected to have continued in the second quarter.
Our estimate for total adjusted non-interest expenses is pegged at $3.54 billion, suggesting an increase of 1.5% from the prior-quarter number.
Management expects adjusted expenses to rise 1-2% sequentially, mainly due to higher incentive-based compensation from insurance revenue growth.
Asset Quality: Truist is expected to have set aside substantial money for potential bad loans, given the global recession risk due to geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns and tighter financial conditions. Our estimate for provision for credit losses is pegged at $545.5 million, indicating an increase of 8.7% from the prior quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets (NPAs) is pegged at $1.43 billion, indicating a rise of 13.3% from the last reported quarter. The consensus estimate for total non-accrual loans and leases of $1.36 billion suggests a 13.8% increase.
Our estimates for NPAs and non-accrual loans and leases are $1.28 billion and $1.22 billion, respectively.
What the Zacks Model Reveals
According to our quantitative model, the chances of Truist beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Truist is +1.01%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Truist Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TFC’s second-quarter earnings of 98 cents per share has been revised 3% lower over the past seven days. The figure indicates a fall of 18.3% from the year-ago reported number. Our estimate for earnings is the same as the consensus number.
The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $5.94 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 5%. Our estimate for sales is $5.93 billion, implying an increase of 4.9%.
Other Major Banks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of major bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK - Free Report) is +0.16% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 18.
Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BK’s quarterly earnings has moved marginally north.
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Fee Income to Aid Truist's (TFC) Q2 Earnings, Lower NII to Ail
Truist Financial (TFC - Free Report) is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 20, before market open. The to-be-reported quarter has witnessed a gradual slowdown in overall lending activities. Per the Federal Reserve’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial loan balances (accounting for roughly 50% of TFC’s total loans and leases held for investment) has waned.
We project total loans of $325.7 billion, indicating a 1.3% decline from the prior quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average earning assets is pegged at $503.1 billion, indicating almost a 1% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the metric is $500.6 billion, suggesting a marginal rise.
Further, the Fed increased rates by 25 basis points in May and kept the rates unchanged at 5-5.25% during the June FOMC meeting. This is likely to have had a favorable impact on TFC’s net interest margin (NIM) and net interest income (NII). Nonetheless, the inverted yield curve and rising funding costs, as rates remained high, are expected to have weighed on NIM to some extent.
The consensus estimate for NII (FTE) is $3.74 billion, which implies a 4.5% decline sequentially. We project the metric to decrease 3.3% to $3.79 billion.
The company expects NII to decline on higher deposit and funding costs.
Other Key Factors
Non-Interest Income: Deposit balances are not expected to have grown much in the second quarter as customers are looking for better returns elsewhere. This is likely to have had an adverse impact on revenues from service charges on deposits. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $246.1 million for the same implies a fall of 1.2% from the prior period’s reported number. Our estimate for the metric is $250 million.
Rising mortgage rates (the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage remaining above the 6% mark) and inflation weighed on mortgage originations and refinancing activities in the second quarter, which is expected to have hurt TFC’s mortgage banking income. We expect residential mortgage income to decline 18.9% sequentially to $98.9 million, while commercial mortgage income will remain relatively stable at $21.3 million.
The consensus estimate for investment banking and brokerage fees and commissions of $241.3 million indicates a 7.5% decrease sequentially. We project the same to slide 21.8% to $204 million.
Seasonally strong performance in the insurance business and benefits of business streamlining undertaken last year as expected to have supported Truist’s insurance income. The consensus estimate for insurance income of $889.4 million reflects a 9.4% increase. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $818.3 million.
A modest loan demand is expected to have offered support to the company’s lending-related fees. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same of $108.8 million indicates a rise of 2.6% from the prior quarter. We anticipate the metric to increase 3.4% to $109.6 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and payment-related fees of $240.7 million suggests 4.7% growth. We expect the same to rise 4.4% to $240.2 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $2.3 billion, which indicates a 2.9% rise sequentially. Our estimate for the same is $2.2 billion, implying a fall of 1.6%.
Expenses: Truist has been witnessing a continued rise in overall expenses over the past several quarters because of investments in technology upgrades and strategic expansion efforts. A similar trend is expected to have continued in the second quarter.
Our estimate for total adjusted non-interest expenses is pegged at $3.54 billion, suggesting an increase of 1.5% from the prior-quarter number.
Management expects adjusted expenses to rise 1-2% sequentially, mainly due to higher incentive-based compensation from insurance revenue growth.
Asset Quality: Truist is expected to have set aside substantial money for potential bad loans, given the global recession risk due to geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns and tighter financial conditions. Our estimate for provision for credit losses is pegged at $545.5 million, indicating an increase of 8.7% from the prior quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets (NPAs) is pegged at $1.43 billion, indicating a rise of 13.3% from the last reported quarter. The consensus estimate for total non-accrual loans and leases of $1.36 billion suggests a 13.8% increase.
Our estimates for NPAs and non-accrual loans and leases are $1.28 billion and $1.22 billion, respectively.
What the Zacks Model Reveals
According to our quantitative model, the chances of Truist beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Truist is +1.01%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Truist Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Truist Financial Corporation price-eps-surprise | Truist Financial Corporation Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TFC’s second-quarter earnings of 98 cents per share has been revised 3% lower over the past seven days. The figure indicates a fall of 18.3% from the year-ago reported number. Our estimate for earnings is the same as the consensus number.
The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $5.94 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 5%. Our estimate for sales is $5.93 billion, implying an increase of 4.9%.
Other Major Banks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of major bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK - Free Report) is +0.16% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 18.
Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BK’s quarterly earnings has moved marginally north.
U.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) is scheduled to release second-quarter 2023 earnings on Jul 19. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +0.39%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
USB’s quarterly earnings estimates have moved 3.4% lower over the past month.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.