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Chevron (CVX) Q2 Earnings on Tap: What Would it Reveal?
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Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter results on Jul 28. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $3.06 per share on revenues of $52.7 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the American energy biggie’s performance in the June quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Chevron’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q1 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the San Ramon, CA-based integrated player beat the consensus mark due to its higher-than-expected downstream segment bottom line. Chevron had reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.55, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.36. Revenues of $50.8 billion had also come in 6% above the consensus mark.
CVX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, resulting in an earnings surprise of 7.7%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has been revised 1.6% downward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 47.4% deterioration year over year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a 23.3% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Chevron is expected to have faced some production headwinds due to asset sales. But it will be offset by robust output in the showpiece Permian Basin region. As a matter of fact, for the to-be-reported quarter, our estimate for the U.S. volume is pegged at 1,219.1 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), indicating a rise from the prior-year quarter’s volume of 1,172 MBOE/d.
On a further bullish mote, Chevron’s higher U.S. output will be complemented by a slight increase in overseas production with impressive liftings from major projects in the Gulf of Mexico, Australia, Khazakstan, West Africa, as well as the Israeli offshore assets. Our model estimates Chevron’s international volumes to average 1,739.7 MBOE/d in the second quarter, edging up 0.9% from the year-ago period.
However, a plunge in its downstream (or refining) unit earnings is likely to have seriously hurt Chevron’s bottom line. A comparatively softer macro environment is expected to have impacted refined product sales, which we estimate will fall 8.7% year over year to 2,324.4 thousand barrels per day. Echoing Chevron’s tepid downstream dynamics and going by our model, the to-be-reported quarter’s income is projected at $897.9 million. The number suggests a significant drop from the profit of $3.5 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Chevron is likely to beat estimates in the second quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -5.73%.
Zacks Rank: CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for CVX, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
TC Energy Corporation (TRP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.72% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jul 28.
TC Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.1%, on average. Valued at around $40.7 billion, TRP has lost 27.9% in a year.
MPLX LP (MPLX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Aug 1.
MPLX has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.9%, on average. Over the past 60 days, the partnership saw the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 move up 8.5%. Valued at around $35 billion, the company has gained 11.7% in a year.
Murphy USA (MUSA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Aug 2.
Murphy USA has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.6%, on average. Over the past 60 days, MUSA saw the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 move up 1.7%. Valued at around $6.9 billion, the company has gained 17.5% in a year.
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Chevron (CVX) Q2 Earnings on Tap: What Would it Reveal?
Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter results on Jul 28. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $3.06 per share on revenues of $52.7 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the American energy biggie’s performance in the June quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Chevron’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q1 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the San Ramon, CA-based integrated player beat the consensus mark due to its higher-than-expected downstream segment bottom line. Chevron had reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.55, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.36. Revenues of $50.8 billion had also come in 6% above the consensus mark.
CVX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, resulting in an earnings surprise of 7.7%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Chevron Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Chevron Corporation price-eps-surprise | Chevron Corporation Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has been revised 1.6% downward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 47.4% deterioration year over year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a 23.3% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Chevron is expected to have faced some production headwinds due to asset sales. But it will be offset by robust output in the showpiece Permian Basin region. As a matter of fact, for the to-be-reported quarter, our estimate for the U.S. volume is pegged at 1,219.1 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), indicating a rise from the prior-year quarter’s volume of 1,172 MBOE/d.
On a further bullish mote, Chevron’s higher U.S. output will be complemented by a slight increase in overseas production with impressive liftings from major projects in the Gulf of Mexico, Australia, Khazakstan, West Africa, as well as the Israeli offshore assets. Our model estimates Chevron’s international volumes to average 1,739.7 MBOE/d in the second quarter, edging up 0.9% from the year-ago period.
However, a plunge in its downstream (or refining) unit earnings is likely to have seriously hurt Chevron’s bottom line. A comparatively softer macro environment is expected to have impacted refined product sales, which we estimate will fall 8.7% year over year to 2,324.4 thousand barrels per day. Echoing Chevron’s tepid downstream dynamics and going by our model, the to-be-reported quarter’s income is projected at $897.9 million. The number suggests a significant drop from the profit of $3.5 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Chevron is likely to beat estimates in the second quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -5.73%.
Zacks Rank: CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for CVX, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
TC Energy Corporation (TRP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.72% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jul 28.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
TC Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.1%, on average. Valued at around $40.7 billion, TRP has lost 27.9% in a year.
MPLX LP (MPLX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Aug 1.
MPLX has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.9%, on average. Over the past 60 days, the partnership saw the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 move up 8.5%. Valued at around $35 billion, the company has gained 11.7% in a year.
Murphy USA (MUSA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Aug 2.
Murphy USA has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.6%, on average. Over the past 60 days, MUSA saw the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 move up 1.7%. Valued at around $6.9 billion, the company has gained 17.5% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.