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Here's Why Procter & Gamble (PG) is Poised for Q4 Earnings Beat

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The Procter & Gamble Company (PG - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Jul 28, before the opening bell. The company is expected to deliver sales and earnings growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.32 per share, indicating a 9.1% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark has been unchanged in the past 30 days. For fiscal fourth-quarter revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $19.93 billion, suggesting a 2.1% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

In the last reported quarter, the company recorded an earnings surprise of 3.79%. It has delivered a bottom-line beat of 1.02%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Procter & Gamble Company (The) Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Procter & Gamble Company (The) Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Procter & Gamble Company (The) price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Procter & Gamble Company (The) Quote

Key Factors to Note

Procter & Gamble has been demonstrating its dominance in the global market by strategically leveraging its brand strength to drive organic sales growth. As a manufacturer of products catering to the essential daily needs of consumers worldwide, P&G's success in the preceding quarters can be attributed to its robust brand portfolio and effective business strategies. The persistence of these trends is expected to get reflected in the company’s organic sales for the fiscal fourth quarter.

We expect organic sales to increase 5.2% in the to-be-reported quarter. Organic sales are expected to increase 7% for the Beauty segment, 5% for Grooming, 5% for Fabric & Home Care, 8% for Health Care, and 3% for the Baby, Feminine & Family Care segment.

P&G has been diligently pursuing cost-saving and productivity measures to drive margins and reinforce its competitive advantage. The company's commitment to enhancing productivity, while mitigating macro cost headwinds has been integral to maintaining a balanced top and bottom-line growth.

We expect P&G's gross margin for the fiscal fourth quarter to have been influenced by significant productivity savings. Our model predicts a gross margin expansion of 50 bps for the to-be-reported quarter.
 
However, currency headwinds are likely to have hurt the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Rising input costs are expected to have weighed on the fiscal fourth-quarter performance. Our estimate indicates a 4% impact from currency headwinds in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.

On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, the company anticipated year-over-year all-in sales growth of 1% for fiscal 2023, with organic sales likely to increase 6%. The company expects currency movements to negatively impact all-in sales growth by 5%.

Management predicted reported EPS to be flat to up 4% from the $5.81 posted in fiscal 2022. The company expects EPS to be at the low end of the above-mentioned range due to the ongoing commodity and material cost headwinds, and currency impacts.

Zacks Model

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Procter & Gamble this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Procter & Gamble has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.66%.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around.

Molson Coors (TAP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.96% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). TAP is anticipated to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molson Coors’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.21 billion, indicating an increase of 10% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molson Coors’ bottom line has moved up 0.7% in the past seven days to $1.49 per share. The consensus estimate for earnings suggests a rise of 25.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. TAP has delivered an earnings beat of 32.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHD’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.42 billion, which suggests an increase of 7.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHD’s quarterly earnings is unchanged at 79 cents in the past 30 days, suggesting a 4% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. CHD has delivered an earnings beat of 9.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Coty (COTY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +28.57% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.32 billion, which suggests growth of 13.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coty’s quarterly earnings has moved up by a penny in the past 30 days to 2 cents per share. The consensus estimate for earnings suggests a significant improvement from a loss per share of 1 cent reported in the year-ago quarter. COTY has delivered an earnings surprise of 145%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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