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Markets Close in the Green; Services Prints Modest

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Markets finally had a good day in what has become fairly bleak market conditions of late. Second guessing Fed rate decisions in the face of much higher bond yields, especially on the 10-year, have been weighing on markets of late. Yesterday’s robust JOLTS numbers suggested the Fed may not be done tightening interest rates at its November meeting.

But today, even though it was a little topsy-turvy on the indices, all four majors finished in the green: the Dow closed +127 points, +0.39%, the Nasdaq gained +176 points, +1.35%, the S&P 500 split the difference at +0.81% and the small-cap Russell 2000 brought up the rear, +0.19%. The Dow is currently only marginally in the red year to date; the Russell is still more than 1% under water. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq, even with a lousy performance since September 1st, is still up +27% year to date.

Considering we haven’t seen a ton of economic reports out this week, today was a busy day: not only did we see new private-sector payroll results from ADP (ADP - Free Report) before today’s opening bell (which were only about half what they were the previous month), but after the open we got new prints on the Services sector and on Factory Orders.

S&P final Services PMI for September came in at 50.1 today, down 10 basis points (bps) month over month, so pretty much in-line, and still above the crucial 50 level, which indicates growth. It is, however, the lowest monthly read since January, and sits at the low end of the multi-year range, not counting the Covid months. Weakened consumer demand was linked to lower results, as higher costs are keeping prospective customers away from restaurants, drinking establishments, hotels, etc.

The ISM Services report, also for September, notched down to 53.6% in the month, another 10 bps lower than anticipated. It’s previous level, 54.5%, was the highest we’d seen in six months. Obviously, it too is above the 50% precipice, so is in no danger of contracting anytime soon. The drawdown of back orders was prevalent in this data, as well, though still fairly buoyant, especially considering the S&P PMI.

Tomorrow continues our quest for labor market knowledge with the Weekly Jobless Claims data out prior to the opening bell. These numbers have been extraordinarily low of late — while the cycle highs were somewhere in the neighborhood of 260K claims a few months back, last week’s 204K demonstrated that the labor market is still an operating force in our current economy. Expectations are for 210K new claims for last week.

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