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What's in Store for Bristol-Myers (BMY) in Q3 Earnings?
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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 26, before market open.
The company’s shares have lost 21.5% in the past year compared with the industry's 21.7% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bristol-Myers beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the remaining one, the average surprise being 1.66%. In the previously reported quarter, the company missed the mark by 12.06%.
Factors at Play
Total revenues in the third quarter are likely to have been boosted by growth in in-line product revenues and new product portfolio revenues. Increased sales of the key immuno-oncology drug Opdivo on consistent label expansions for newer metastatic and adjuvant indications is likely to have boosted the top line in the third quarter.
Demand in the United States is primarily driven by demand for first-line lung, upper gastrointestinal and adjuvant bladder cancer indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Opdivo is $2.3 billion, while our estimate is pinned at $2.2 billion.
The blood thinner drug Eliquis was one of the top revenue generators in the last reported quarter due to strong demand in the United States. The solid performance of the drug in the United States is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Still, pricing pressure and generic competition in Canada and the U.K. have likely pulled down total sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Eliquis is pegged at $2.8 billion and our estimate is pinned at $2.9 million.
Pomalyst’s sales were impacted in the second quarter due to increased patients receiving free drug products from the company’s patient assistance program. This might have affected sales in the third quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug is pegged at $849 million and our estimate is pinned at $858 million.
Arthritis drug Orencia increased in the previous quarter and the third quarter is likely to have witnessed the same trend.
An increase in Yervoy sales on label expansions has likely boosted sales in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $566 million and $547.8 million, respectively.
Among the new products, Reblozyl posted strong growth in the last reported quarter due to continued total prescription share growth, driven by longer duration of treatment in the United States and reimbursement in additional countries outside the United States. Sales in the third quarter have likely seen an increase in label expansion.
The FDA approved Reblozyl (luspatercept-aamt) as a first-line treatment of anemia in adults with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes who may require transfusions. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Reblozyl sales are pinned at $265 million and $277 million, respectively.
Abecma’s revenues are likely to be lower than in the second quarter, partly due to planned manufacturing maintenance in June, with growth expected in the fourth quarter.
Breyanzi sales have likely seen increased uptake and sequential growth, primarily driven by demand in second-line and third-line large B cell lymphoma and the increased manufacturing capacity.
Opdualag (first-line melanoma) has most likely registered an increase in the third quarter on increased market share. Zeposia sales are likely to have increased as well, driven by demand in multiple sclerosis and an expanding contribution from ulcerative colitis. International sales have increased primarily due to demand for multiple sclerosis and securing reimbursement in additional countries. Sotyktu sales, too, have likely seen growth on increased uptake.
However, the decline in Revlimid’s revenues from generic erosion across several countries has likely pulled down the top line.
Operating expenses are likely to have remained flat with the previous quarter.
Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
BMY announced that it will acquire commercial-stage oncology company Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. for $58.00 per share in cash, amounting to a total equity value of $4.8 billion. In addition to cash, each Mirati stockholder will receive one non-tradeable Contingent Value Right for each share held. This, in turn, will entitle its holder to receive a one-time potential payment of $12.00 in cash, for a total value of approximately $1.0 billion.
The payment is contingent upon a potential FDA acceptance of a new drug application for MRTX1719 for the treatment of either locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer in patients who have received no more than two prior lines of systemic therapy within seven years after the merger's closing.
The acquisition will be completed by the first half of 2024, subject to the receipt of required regulatory approvals. The transaction is expected to dilute Bristol Myers’ bottom line (non-GAAP) by approximately $0.35 per share in the first 12 months after closing.
Additional updates on the same are expected in the third quarter’s earnings conference call.
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bristol-Myers this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for BMY is -1.74% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pinned at $1.77 per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.73 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
BIIB beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters, the average earnings surprise being 10.53%. Biogen is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 8.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank #3. AstraZeneca topped earnings estimates in all the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.38%, on average.
Image: Shutterstock
What's in Store for Bristol-Myers (BMY) in Q3 Earnings?
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 26, before market open.
The company’s shares have lost 21.5% in the past year compared with the industry's 21.7% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bristol-Myers beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the remaining one, the average surprise being 1.66%. In the previously reported quarter, the company missed the mark by 12.06%.
Factors at Play
Total revenues in the third quarter are likely to have been boosted by growth in in-line product revenues and new product portfolio revenues. Increased sales of the key immuno-oncology drug Opdivo on consistent label expansions for newer metastatic and adjuvant indications is likely to have boosted the top line in the third quarter.
Demand in the United States is primarily driven by demand for first-line lung, upper gastrointestinal and adjuvant bladder cancer indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Opdivo is $2.3 billion, while our estimate is pinned at $2.2 billion.
The blood thinner drug Eliquis was one of the top revenue generators in the last reported quarter due to strong demand in the United States. The solid performance of the drug in the United States is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Still, pricing pressure and generic competition in Canada and the U.K. have likely pulled down total sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Eliquis is pegged at $2.8 billion and our estimate is pinned at $2.9 million.
Pomalyst’s sales were impacted in the second quarter due to increased patients receiving free drug products from the company’s patient assistance program. This might have affected sales in the third quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug is pegged at $849 million and our estimate is pinned at $858 million.
Arthritis drug Orencia increased in the previous quarter and the third quarter is likely to have witnessed the same trend.
An increase in Yervoy sales on label expansions has likely boosted sales in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $566 million and $547.8 million, respectively.
Among the new products, Reblozyl posted strong growth in the last reported quarter due to continued total prescription share growth, driven by longer duration of treatment in the United States and reimbursement in additional countries outside the United States. Sales in the third quarter have likely seen an increase in label expansion.
The FDA approved Reblozyl (luspatercept-aamt) as a first-line treatment of anemia in adults with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes who may require transfusions. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Reblozyl sales are pinned at $265 million and $277 million, respectively.
Abecma’s revenues are likely to be lower than in the second quarter, partly due to planned manufacturing maintenance in June, with growth expected in the fourth quarter.
Breyanzi sales have likely seen increased uptake and sequential growth, primarily driven by demand in second-line and third-line large B cell lymphoma and the increased manufacturing capacity.
Opdualag (first-line melanoma) has most likely registered an increase in the third quarter on increased market share. Zeposia sales are likely to have increased as well, driven by demand in multiple sclerosis and an expanding contribution from ulcerative colitis. International sales have increased primarily due to demand for multiple sclerosis and securing reimbursement in additional countries. Sotyktu sales, too, have likely seen growth on increased uptake.
However, the decline in Revlimid’s revenues from generic erosion across several countries has likely pulled down the top line.
Operating expenses are likely to have remained flat with the previous quarter.
Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Bristol Myers Squibb Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Bristol Myers Squibb Company Quote
Recent Key Developments
BMY announced that it will acquire commercial-stage oncology company Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. for $58.00 per share in cash, amounting to a total equity value of $4.8 billion. In addition to cash, each Mirati stockholder will receive one non-tradeable Contingent Value Right for each share held. This, in turn, will entitle its holder to receive a one-time potential payment of $12.00 in cash, for a total value of approximately $1.0 billion.
The payment is contingent upon a potential FDA acceptance of a new drug application for MRTX1719 for the treatment of either locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer in patients who have received no more than two prior lines of systemic therapy within seven years after the merger's closing.
The acquisition will be completed by the first half of 2024, subject to the receipt of required regulatory approvals. The transaction is expected to dilute Bristol Myers’ bottom line (non-GAAP) by approximately $0.35 per share in the first 12 months after closing.
Additional updates on the same are expected in the third quarter’s earnings conference call.
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bristol-Myers this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for BMY is -1.74% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pinned at $1.77 per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.73 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.41% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
BIIB beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters, the average earnings surprise being 10.53%. Biogen is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 8.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca topped earnings estimates in all the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.38%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.