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The so-called “jobs week” gets underway this morning, with private-sector payrolls for October having been reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) , as it does at the top of every month. A headline number of +113K new private-sector jobs filled was below the +130K analysts were expecting, while it surpassed the unrevised +89K reported for the previous month. This means we’re still creating more than the amount of monthly private-sector jobs the economy needs to offset retiring Baby Boomers.
Services dominated, as per usual, with +107K of the total going to sectors such as Education/Healthcare +45K, Trade/Transportation/Utilities +35K, Financials +21K and Leisure/Hospitality +17K. We saw a surprise -10K private-sector jobs in Professional/Business Services last month, which had previously been one of the stronger industries for private-sector jobs growth. Medium-sized companies (50-499 employees) brought the lion’s share in the month, +78K. Small firms and large corporations were pretty well even at +19K and +18K, respectively.
The South continued to lead the way overall, gaining +64K on these new private-sector jobs, followed by the West at +46K and the Northeast +21K. The Midwest brought a surprise negative -13K for the month. These figures are about to enter months where holiday shopping season static gets in the way of job growth data, as retailers, warehouses and delivery services start to add to their payrolls through the end of the year.
We saw continued pay increases, both for those staying at their current jobs (+5.7%) and those changing employers (+8.4%), but these are the smallest monthly prints we’ve seen since 2021. Low-wage jobs are gaining among sectors, most clearly displayed by the drop in Professional/Business Services and the biggest growth among teachers, nurses, etc. Thus, we’re not seeing a dreaded “wage/price spiral” that would keep inflation pushing upward on the economy, and we expect the Fed — currently together for their latest FOMC meeting — to take note of this when they deliver today’s decision on interest rates.
After today’s opening bell, we’ll also get a look at the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for the month of September. Expectations here are for a tick-down to 9.4 million from 9.6 million posed a month ago. This would make the sixth-straight month below the psychologically important 10 million, and well off the 11.2 million we were seeing as recently as last December. Also ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending numbers await.
At 2pm ET today, the Fed will officially release the latest Fed funds rate level, with most analysts believing the monetary policy body will stand pat at 5.25-5.50%, and not raise another 25 basis points (bps) to the highest level we’ve seen since the start of this century. Fed Chair Jay Powell will step to the podium for a press conference afterward, where he will no doubt be pressed whether the Fed intends to consider raising rates at the final FOMC meeting of the year, on December 12-13.
Image: Bigstock
ADP Jobs +113K Lower than Expected; Fed at 2pm
The so-called “jobs week” gets underway this morning, with private-sector payrolls for October having been reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) , as it does at the top of every month. A headline number of +113K new private-sector jobs filled was below the +130K analysts were expecting, while it surpassed the unrevised +89K reported for the previous month. This means we’re still creating more than the amount of monthly private-sector jobs the economy needs to offset retiring Baby Boomers.
Services dominated, as per usual, with +107K of the total going to sectors such as Education/Healthcare +45K, Trade/Transportation/Utilities +35K, Financials +21K and Leisure/Hospitality +17K. We saw a surprise -10K private-sector jobs in Professional/Business Services last month, which had previously been one of the stronger industries for private-sector jobs growth. Medium-sized companies (50-499 employees) brought the lion’s share in the month, +78K. Small firms and large corporations were pretty well even at +19K and +18K, respectively.
The South continued to lead the way overall, gaining +64K on these new private-sector jobs, followed by the West at +46K and the Northeast +21K. The Midwest brought a surprise negative -13K for the month. These figures are about to enter months where holiday shopping season static gets in the way of job growth data, as retailers, warehouses and delivery services start to add to their payrolls through the end of the year.
We saw continued pay increases, both for those staying at their current jobs (+5.7%) and those changing employers (+8.4%), but these are the smallest monthly prints we’ve seen since 2021. Low-wage jobs are gaining among sectors, most clearly displayed by the drop in Professional/Business Services and the biggest growth among teachers, nurses, etc. Thus, we’re not seeing a dreaded “wage/price spiral” that would keep inflation pushing upward on the economy, and we expect the Fed — currently together for their latest FOMC meeting — to take note of this when they deliver today’s decision on interest rates.
After today’s opening bell, we’ll also get a look at the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for the month of September. Expectations here are for a tick-down to 9.4 million from 9.6 million posed a month ago. This would make the sixth-straight month below the psychologically important 10 million, and well off the 11.2 million we were seeing as recently as last December. Also ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending numbers await.
At 2pm ET today, the Fed will officially release the latest Fed funds rate level, with most analysts believing the monetary policy body will stand pat at 5.25-5.50%, and not raise another 25 basis points (bps) to the highest level we’ve seen since the start of this century. Fed Chair Jay Powell will step to the podium for a press conference afterward, where he will no doubt be pressed whether the Fed intends to consider raising rates at the final FOMC meeting of the year, on December 12-13.
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