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How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Retail and Wholesale Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

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Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Ulta Beauty?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.97 a share seven days away from its upcoming earnings release on November 30, 2023.

ULTA has an Earnings ESP figure of +0.06%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $4.97 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.96. Ulta Beauty is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

ULTA is part of a big group of Retail and Wholesale stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Costco (COST - Free Report) as well.

Costco, which is readying to report earnings on December 14, 2023, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $3.56 a share, and COST is 21 days out from its next earnings report.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco is $3.44, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +3.49%.

ULTA and COST's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) - free report >>

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) - free report >>

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