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NextEra (NEE) Up 1.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for NextEra Energy (NEE - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is NextEra due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

NextEra Energy Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Lag

NextEra Energy, Inc. released third-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of 94 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 86 cents by 9.3%. The bottom line was also up 10.6% from the prior-year quarter. The year-over-year improvement was due to the solid performances of Florida Power & Light Company and NextEra Energy Resources.

GAAP earnings for the third quarter were 60 cents compared with earnings of 86 cents in the year-ago period.

Total Revenues

For the third quarter, NextEra’s operating revenues were $7,172 million, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7,453 million by 3.8%. The top line improved 6.7% year over year.

Segment Results

Florida Power & Light Company (“FPL”): The segment’s revenues amounted to $5,475 million, up 7.9% from the prior-year figure of $5,075 million. Its earnings came in at 58 cents per share compared with 54 cents recorded a year ago.

NextEra Energy Resources: Its revenues amounted to $1,669 million, up 1.02% from the prior-year figure of $1,652 million. The segment’s earnings came in at 43 cents per share in comparison with 37 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Corporate and Other: Operating revenues for the reported quarter were $28 million. The operating loss in the reported quarter was 7 cents per share compared with a loss of 6 cents in the year-ago period.

Highlights of the Release

NextEra Energy’s operating income in the third quarter was $1,836 million compared with $1,862 million in the year-ago period.

Courtesy of Florida’s ongoing economic improvement, FPL's average number of customers in third-quarter 2023 increased by nearly 65,000 from the prior-year period.

NextEra Energy Resources expanded its contracted renewables backlog by adding 1,485 megawatts (“MW”) of renewable projects during second-quarter 2023. Its backlog additions include nearly 400 MW of wind projects, 1,485 MW of solar projects, 905 MW of battery storage projects and 455 MW of wind repowering. The company’s renewables backlog is now nearly at 21 gigawatts.

Financial Update

The company had cash and cash equivalents of $1,568 million as of Sep 30, 2023 compared with $1,601 million on Dec 31, 2022.

Long-term debt as of Sep 30, 2023, was $59.2 billion, up from $55.25 billion on Dec 31, 2022.

Cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2023 was $8,423 million compared with $7,267 million in the first nine months of the prior year.

Guidance

NextEra Energy reaffirmed 2023 earnings of $2.98-$3.13 per share. The midpoint of the range is $3.05 per share, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.12.

For 2024, the company expects earnings per share of $3.23-$3.43. Through 2026, NextEra Energy expects earnings per share to grow 6-8% per year, taking the 2024 adjusted earnings per share as the base. This translates to earnings per share of $3.45-$3.70 for 2025 and $3.63-$4.00 for 2026.

The company’s unit, Energy Resources, currently aims to add 32,700-41,800 MW of renewable power projects to its portfolio within 2023-2026.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -7.56% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, NextEra has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, NextEra has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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