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Why Is Cimpress (CMPR) Up 16.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cimpress (CMPR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 16.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cimpress due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Cimpress Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y

Cimpress reported first-quarter fiscal 2024 (ended Sep 30, 2023) adjusted earnings of 17 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 34 cents per share. Cimpress incurred a loss of 97 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Top-Line Details

Total revenues in the fiscal first quarter were $757.3 million, reflecting an increase of 7.7% from $703.4 million in the year-ago quarter. The organic constant-currency revenue growth was also 4%, driven by growth across most of its businesses. The top line missed the Zack Consensus Estimate of $771 million.

Segmental Information

The National Pen segment generated revenues of $87.3 million, up from $81.7 million in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the quarter was $91.2 million. Vista — the largest revenue-generating segment — reported aggregate revenues of $396.6 million, in line with the year-ago quarter.

The Upload and Print segment’s revenues increased to $232.7 million from $209.5 million in the year-ago quarter. The segment consists of two subgroups, namely PrintBrothers and The Print Group. In the fiscal first quarter, PrintBrothers’ revenues increased to $152.2 million from $132.7 million reported in the year-ago period.

In the fiscal first quarter, the Print Group generated revenues of $80.5 million, up from $76.8 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the quarter was $86.9 million. Revenues from All Other Businesses increased to $51.8 million, in line with the year-ago quarter.

Margin Details

In the fiscal quarter, Cimpress' cost of revenues was $398.8 million, up 5.6% on a year-over-year basis. Marketing and selling expenses totaled $192.2 million, down 4.4% year over year.  Total general & administrative expenses were $48.3 million, down from $54.1 million reported in the year-ago fiscal quarter.

Gross profit increased 10.1% year over year to $359 million. The margin was 47.3%, up 100 basis points. Net interest expenses rose 17.7% to $29.2 million.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

As of Sep 30, 2023, Cimpress had $125.2 million of cash and cash equivalents compared with $130.3 million at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. Also, CMPR’s total debt (net of issuance costs) was $1,473 million in the first three months of the year.

In the same time period, net cash provided by operating activities was $42.3 million against $25.3 million cash spent in the year-ago period.

Outlook

For fiscal 2024, the company expects consolidated reported revenue growth (assuming recent currency rates) to be at least 8% and organic constant-currency revenue growth to be at least 6%.

CMPR predicts operating income to be at least $206.2 million for the fiscal year and adjusted EBITDA to be at least $425 million. The company also expects the conversion of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow to be approximately 40% for fiscal 2024.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -10% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Cimpress has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Cimpress has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Cimpress belongs to the Zacks Consumer Services - Miscellaneous industry. Another stock from the same industry, Aaron's Company, Inc. (AAN - Free Report) , has gained 20.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2023.

Aaron's reported revenues of $525.68 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -11.4%. EPS of $0.01 for the same period compares with $0.31 a year ago.

Aaron's is expected to post earnings of $0.03 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -66.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -58.5%.

Aaron's has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.


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