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Hologic (HOLX) Q1 Earnings Might Rise on Breast Health Growth

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Hologic Inc. (HOLX - Free Report) Breast Health segment is likely to have witnessed strong performance owing to increased sales of its interventional breast solutions products driven by Brevera systems and related needles

The growing adoption of Panther instruments and an expanded Panther installed base are likely to have boosted the company’s growth.

We anticipate HOLX’s first-quarter fiscal 2024 performance, scheduled for release on Feb 1 after the closing bell, to reflect these aspects.

Click here to know how the company’s overall fiscal first-quarter performance is expected to be.

Breast Health

Hologic’s Breast Health segment is gaining from a broad portfolio of solutions for breast cancer care, primarily in the burgeoning spaces of radiology, breast surgery, pathology and treatment. Since the past few quarters, the company has been making impressive progress in its Breast Health arm, leveraging its strategic expansion efforts to diversify business across the patient continuum of care. We believe this positive trend to have continued through first-quarter fiscal 2024 as well, thus adding to the top line.

Similar to the fourth quarter, we expect the Hologic Breast Health arm to witness an increase in sales of Trident systems unit and higher Faxitron breast-conserving surgery products, driven by the improvement in supply chain constraints related to electronic components, primarily semiconductor chips.
Since the past few months, the company also witnessed increased sales of its interventional breast solutions products driven by Brevera systems and related needles. Hologic's breast service business continues to grow and is becoming an even larger part of the division's mix. The strong service performance represents stable contracted recurring revenues and deepens customer relationships. We expect these positive trends to back Hologic’s growth within Breast Health in the fiscal first quarter as well.

In the fiscal fourth quarter, management noted that with the gantry backlog remaining elevated compared with historic levels, Hologic has greater visibility into its pipeline, translating to higher confidence in future gantry sales. We believe this will have a positive contribution to the company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.

Hologic, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hologic Breast Health revenue is pegged at $353 million, suggesting an increase of 5.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

Diagnostics

Similar to the past few quarters, Hologic is expected to have witnessed growth in the Diagnostics business (excluding COVID) in the fiscal first quarter, driven by the growing adoption of Panther instruments and an expanded Panther installed base.

The company’s expanded global installed base of more than 3,260 Panthers represents the catalyst for the division's sustained growth. As customers add more menus and drive incremental volume, Hologic’s Molecular Diagnostics business continues to grow. We believe these growth catalysts to have driven the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

As the severity of the pandemic is over, Hologic’s Molecular Diagnostics business is registering strong growth driven by a combination of newer assays like BV, CV/TV and contributions from Amgen and HSV and strong growth from the long-standing women's health menu. The company’s Biotheranostics business (acquired in 2021) is consistently delivering double-digit growth, being accretive even to its Molecular growth rate. We believe these trends to have continued through the fiscal first quarter as well, adding to the top line.

Following the industry-wide trend, Hologic’s Diagnostics business is expected to decline globally compared with the prior year’s levels due to significantly lower COVID testing.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hologic Diagnostics’ revenues is pegged at $447 million, suggesting a decline of 25.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

What Our Model Suggests

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hologic this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Hologic has an Earnings ESP of -0.76%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Hologic currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some medical stocks worth considering as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

SiBone (SIBN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to release fourth quarter 2023 results in February 2024. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

SiBone has a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 15.2%. SIBN surpassed earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 24.21%.

Merit Medical Systems (MMSI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is due to release fourth quarter 2023 results on Feb 28, 2024.

MMSI has an expected long-term earnings growth rate of 11.5%. The company surpassed earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 14.41%.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.18% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to release its fourth quarter of 2023 results in February 2024.

ACAD has a remarkable 2024 earnings growth rate of 415.2%. In the trailing four quarters, the company delivered an average earnings surprise of 20.7%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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