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Will New Drugs Drive Pfizer (PFE) Sales in Q4 Earnings?
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Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) has been relying on its newly launched and newly acquired products to improve its sales performance amid a decline in revenues from its COVID-19 products.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) , for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.
Investors will be keen to know the sales numbers of Pfizer’s several newly launched drugs like Abrysvo, Velsipity, Penbraya, Zavzpret as well as newly acquired products like Nurtec and Oxbryta on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Pfizer’s RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, was approved and launched to help protect older adults, as well as infants through maternal immunization in the United States as well as EU in 2023. In October 2023, the FDA approved its once-daily pill called Velsipity (etrasimod) to treat moderately-to-severely active ulcerative colitis (UC) as well as its pentavalent meningococcal vaccine, Penbraya. In August, the FDA approved Elrexfio (elranatamab), a BCMA-CD3-targeted bispecific antibody for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. In June, the FDA approved Litfulo (ritlecitinib), its JAK3 inhibitor for treating severe alopecia areata and Ngenla, a long-acting once-weekly treatment for pediatric growth hormone deficiency.
Litfulo was approved in Europe in September 2023, Elrexfio in December while etrasimod (for UC) and pentavalent meningococcal vaccines are under review in the EU. Ngenla is already approved in EU and some other countries like Japan. Pfizer’s CGRP receptor antagonist, Zavzpret/zavegepant nasal spray, for the acute treatment of migraine was approved in 2022.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 36.9% in the past year against an increase of 19.8% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Sales of Abrysvo, which was launched in 2023, were above management’s expectations in the third quarter, driven by strong demand as well as some stocking benefits. It remains to be seen how the vaccine contributed to the top line in the fourth quarter. Our model estimate for Abrysvo for the fourth quarter is $510 million.
Sales of Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta improved sequentially in the third quarter, a trend expected to have continued in the fourth quarter. Nurtec ODT/Vydura was added to Pfizer’s portfolio with the acquisition of most of Biohaven in 2022. Oxbryta was added with the October 2022 acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics. Our model estimates for Nurtec and Oxbryta are $246 million and $94.5 million, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nurtec and Oxbryta for the fourth quarter is $251 million and $96.0 million, respectively.
The December 2023 acquisition of Seagen added a class of antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs, Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak to Pfizer’s portfolio. Antibody-drug conjugates are being considered a disruptive innovation in the pharmaceutical industry as these will allow better treatment of cancer by harnessing the targeting power of antibodies to deliver cytotoxic molecule drugs to tumors. Though the contribution of these four drugs to Pfizer’s top line is expected to have been minimal in the fourth quarter of 2023 (as the Seagen acquisition was closed on Dec 14), investors will still keep a tab on the sales performance of these drugs in the quarter.
Overall, though sales from BioNTech partnered Comirnaty and Paxlovid are expected to have declined due to lower demand, some key non-COVID products like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and Prevnar family of vaccines, newly acquired products like Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta and new product launches are likely to have provided some top-line support in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.89 billion, while our model estimates the same to be $1.76 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $945.0 million, while our model estimates the same to be $921.0 million.
Zacks Rank and Stocks to Consider
Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) currently.
In the past 60 days, estimates for Regeneron’s 2024 earnings have risen from $41.60 per share to $44.28 per share. Regeneron’s stock has surged 27.6% in the past year.
Regeneron beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 12.34%.
Estimates for Novo Nordisk’s 2024 earnings per share have increased from $3.15 to $3.32 over the past 60 days. NVO’s stock has surged 55.5% in the past year.
Earnings of Novo Nordisk beat estimates in two of the last four quarters, missed in one and matched estimates in one, delivering an earnings surprise of 0.58% on average.
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Will New Drugs Drive Pfizer (PFE) Sales in Q4 Earnings?
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) has been relying on its newly launched and newly acquired products to improve its sales performance amid a decline in revenues from its COVID-19 products.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) , for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.
Investors will be keen to know the sales numbers of Pfizer’s several newly launched drugs like Abrysvo, Velsipity, Penbraya, Zavzpret as well as newly acquired products like Nurtec and Oxbryta on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Pfizer’s RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, was approved and launched to help protect older adults, as well as infants through maternal immunization in the United States as well as EU in 2023. In October 2023, the FDA approved its once-daily pill called Velsipity (etrasimod) to treat moderately-to-severely active ulcerative colitis (UC) as well as its pentavalent meningococcal vaccine, Penbraya. In August, the FDA approved Elrexfio (elranatamab), a BCMA-CD3-targeted bispecific antibody for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. In June, the FDA approved Litfulo (ritlecitinib), its JAK3 inhibitor for treating severe alopecia areata and Ngenla, a long-acting once-weekly treatment for pediatric growth hormone deficiency.
Litfulo was approved in Europe in September 2023, Elrexfio in December while etrasimod (for UC) and pentavalent meningococcal vaccines are under review in the EU. Ngenla is already approved in EU and some other countries like Japan. Pfizer’s CGRP receptor antagonist, Zavzpret/zavegepant nasal spray, for the acute treatment of migraine was approved in 2022.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 36.9% in the past year against an increase of 19.8% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Sales of Abrysvo, which was launched in 2023, were above management’s expectations in the third quarter, driven by strong demand as well as some stocking benefits. It remains to be seen how the vaccine contributed to the top line in the fourth quarter. Our model estimate for Abrysvo for the fourth quarter is $510 million.
Sales of Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta improved sequentially in the third quarter, a trend expected to have continued in the fourth quarter. Nurtec ODT/Vydura was added to Pfizer’s portfolio with the acquisition of most of Biohaven in 2022. Oxbryta was added with the October 2022 acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics. Our model estimates for Nurtec and Oxbryta are $246 million and $94.5 million, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nurtec and Oxbryta for the fourth quarter is $251 million and $96.0 million, respectively.
The December 2023 acquisition of Seagen added a class of antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs, Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak to Pfizer’s portfolio. Antibody-drug conjugates are being considered a disruptive innovation in the pharmaceutical industry as these will allow better treatment of cancer by harnessing the targeting power of antibodies to deliver cytotoxic molecule drugs to tumors. Though the contribution of these four drugs to Pfizer’s top line is expected to have been minimal in the fourth quarter of 2023 (as the Seagen acquisition was closed on Dec 14), investors will still keep a tab on the sales performance of these drugs in the quarter.
Overall, though sales from BioNTech partnered Comirnaty and Paxlovid are expected to have declined due to lower demand, some key non-COVID products like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and Prevnar family of vaccines, newly acquired products like Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Oxbryta and new product launches are likely to have provided some top-line support in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.89 billion, while our model estimates the same to be $1.76 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $945.0 million, while our model estimates the same to be $921.0 million.
Zacks Rank and Stocks to Consider
Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) currently.
Pfizer Inc. Price and Consensus
Pfizer Inc. price-consensus-chart | Pfizer Inc. Quote
Some better-ranked large drugmakers worth considering are Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN - Free Report) and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) , both sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the past 60 days, estimates for Regeneron’s 2024 earnings have risen from $41.60 per share to $44.28 per share. Regeneron’s stock has surged 27.6% in the past year.
Regeneron beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 12.34%.
Estimates for Novo Nordisk’s 2024 earnings per share have increased from $3.15 to $3.32 over the past 60 days. NVO’s stock has surged 55.5% in the past year.
Earnings of Novo Nordisk beat estimates in two of the last four quarters, missed in one and matched estimates in one, delivering an earnings surprise of 0.58% on average.