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Q4 GDP and Consumption Revisions

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This morning, economic prints are mostly in anticipation of Thursday morning’s all-important Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Q4 GDP, Consumption and the Pricing Index are all updated with an initial revision this morning. Pre-market futures went from being negative in the triple digits on the Dow to negative in double digits upon the numbers reported.

The first revision to Q4 GDP came in 10 basis points (bps) light of estimates and the previous print, to +3.2% this morning. Consumption was expected to dip from its initial read of +2.8% last month, but rose 20 bps to +3.0% in today’s report. The Pricing Index, which had been expected in-line with the original +1.5% figure, is now up +1.6%. These numbers are mixed enough to not give a clear look at headline PCE year over year, which had come in at +2.4% in the first installation, +2.8% on core year over year.

Advanced Trade in Goods for January sank deeper month over month, to -$90.2 billion from -$87.9 billion previously, the widest deficit we’ve seen since July of last year but far better than the sub-$12 billion that spiked in early 2022. Advanced Retail Inventories came up 10 bps month over month to +0.5% in January, while Wholesale Inventories dropped notably to -0.1% last month from a downwardly revised +0.4% the prior month, which also happened to be the only positive print of the last year.

Reporting Q4 earnings this morning, The TJX Companies (TJX - Free Report) — consisting of discount retailers T.J. Maxx, Marshall’s, HomeGoods and more — reported in-line earnings per share with the Zacks consensus to $1.12, while revenues of $16.41 billion outpaced expectations by +1.30%. Shares are up modestly in today’s pre-market, but TJX shares are +7% year to date and +30% over the past year. Not bad for a retail company. For more on TJX’s earnings, click here.

After today’s closing bell, we’ll gather a few more important quarterly earnings results, from cloud innovator Salesforce (CRM - Free Report) , Montana-based software company Snowflake (SNOW - Free Report) and tech hardware mainstay HP (HPQ - Free Report) . We’re nearly finished with Q4 earnings season as a whole, and aside from a handful of companies reporting next week — like CrowdStrike (CRWD - Free Report) , NIO (NIO - Free Report) , Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) and Costco (COST - Free Report)   — we won’t pick up again until Q1 reports start coming in a few weeks from now.

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