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First Watch (FWRG) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 5, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 125%.
Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 4 cents, indicating an improvement of 500% from a reported loss of 1 cent per share in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $238.6 million, implying growth of 28.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Let’s analyze the factors likely to impact the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported.
Factors at Play
FWRG’s fiscal fourth-quarter top line is expected to increase from the year-ago levels, backed by same-restaurant sales growth and new restaurant openings. Recently, the company reported a business update, stating an improvement in dining room traffic.
Preliminary results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 revealed a 4% uptick in same-restaurant sales compared with the previous year's level. This marked a 35.2% rise from 2019 levels. However, there was a 1.3% decline in same-restaurant traffic during the fourth quarter, albeit with a slight 0.2% increase for the entire fiscal year.
Increased focus on strategic franchise acquisitions and adjustments in menu pricing strategies are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for franchise revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter is pegged at $3.2 million compared with $2.9 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
However, softness in off-premises channel (due to evolving consumer behavior post-pandemic) and labor cost inflation are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for First Watch this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: First Watch has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: First Watch has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Recent Retail-Wholesale Releases
McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) reported mixed fourth-quarter 2023 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. Both the top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
During the quarter, MCD reported adjusted EPS of $2.95, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.81. Adjusted earnings increased 11% year over year.
Quarterly net revenues of $6.4 billion missed the consensus mark of $6.5 billion. The top line rose 8% year over year. The upside was backed by menu price increases, effective marketing campaigns, and continued digital and delivery growth. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC - Free Report) reported impressive fourth-quarter 2023 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Both the top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
During the quarter, YUMC reported adjusted EPS of 25 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 13 cents. The bottom line surged 92.3% from 13 cents reported a year ago.
Quarterly revenues of $2.5 billion outpaced the consensus mark of $2.4 billion. The top line rose 19.4% on a year-over-year basis. Excluding foreign currency translation, revenues increased 21% year over year. The upside can be attributed to net new unit contribution (12%) and same-store sales growth (4%).
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) reported mixed second-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. Both the top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis. Effective marketing and pricing strategies backed the upside. Sequential improvements in guest traffic bode well.
During the quarter, EAT reported adjusted EPS of 99 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.47. The company reported adjusted EPS of 76 cents in the prior-year quarter.
Quarterly revenues of $1.07 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08 billion. However, the top line increased 5.4% on a year-over-year basis. EAT gained from Chili's solid performance.
Image: Bigstock
First Watch (FWRG) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 5, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 125%.
Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 4 cents, indicating an improvement of 500% from a reported loss of 1 cent per share in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $238.6 million, implying growth of 28.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Quote
Let’s analyze the factors likely to impact the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported.
Factors at Play
FWRG’s fiscal fourth-quarter top line is expected to increase from the year-ago levels, backed by same-restaurant sales growth and new restaurant openings. Recently, the company reported a business update, stating an improvement in dining room traffic.
Preliminary results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 revealed a 4% uptick in same-restaurant sales compared with the previous year's level. This marked a 35.2% rise from 2019 levels. However, there was a 1.3% decline in same-restaurant traffic during the fourth quarter, albeit with a slight 0.2% increase for the entire fiscal year.
Increased focus on strategic franchise acquisitions and adjustments in menu pricing strategies are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for franchise revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter is pegged at $3.2 million compared with $2.9 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
However, softness in off-premises channel (due to evolving consumer behavior post-pandemic) and labor cost inflation are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for First Watch this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: First Watch has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: First Watch has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Recent Retail-Wholesale Releases
McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) reported mixed fourth-quarter 2023 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. Both the top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
During the quarter, MCD reported adjusted EPS of $2.95, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.81. Adjusted earnings increased 11% year over year.
Quarterly net revenues of $6.4 billion missed the consensus mark of $6.5 billion. The top line rose 8% year over year. The upside was backed by menu price increases, effective marketing campaigns, and continued digital and delivery growth. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC - Free Report) reported impressive fourth-quarter 2023 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Both the top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
During the quarter, YUMC reported adjusted EPS of 25 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 13 cents. The bottom line surged 92.3% from 13 cents reported a year ago.
Quarterly revenues of $2.5 billion outpaced the consensus mark of $2.4 billion. The top line rose 19.4% on a year-over-year basis. Excluding foreign currency translation, revenues increased 21% year over year. The upside can be attributed to net new unit contribution (12%) and same-store sales growth (4%).
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) reported mixed second-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. Both the top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis. Effective marketing and pricing strategies backed the upside. Sequential improvements in guest traffic bode well.
During the quarter, EAT reported adjusted EPS of 99 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.47. The company reported adjusted EPS of 76 cents in the prior-year quarter.
Quarterly revenues of $1.07 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08 billion. However, the top line increased 5.4% on a year-over-year basis. EAT gained from Chili's solid performance.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.