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Why Is Enphase Energy (ENPH) Up 6.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Enphase Energy (ENPH - Free Report) . Shares have added about 6.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Enphase Energy due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Enphase Energy Q4 Earnings Meet, Revenues Fall Y/Y

Enphase Energy reported fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of 54 cents per share, indicating a 64.2% decline from $1.51 reported in the prior-year quarter. The bottom line came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Including one-time adjustments, the company posted GAAP earnings of 15 cents per share, which came in lower than the year-ago quarter’s level of $1.06.

For 2023, the company reported adjusted earnings of $4.41 per share, which highlights a 4.5% decline from $4.62 reported in the prior-year quarter. The full-year bottom line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.42 by a tad.

Revenues

Enphase Energy’s fourth-quarter revenues of $302.6 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $327 million by 7.5%. The top line also declined 58.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $724.7 million.

The year-over-year deterioration can be attributed to reduced shipments for managing high inventory at ENPH’s distribution partners, along with a further softening in demand.

For 2023, Enphase Energy generated revenues of $2.29 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.31 billion by 0.9%. The top line also declined 1.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $2.33 billion.

Operational Highlights

The company’s shipments amounted to approximately 660.1 megawatts-direct current (MWdc) or 1,595,677 microinverters and 80.7 MW hours of Enphase IQ Batteries.

The adjusted gross margin expanded 650 basis points year over year to 50.3%.

Adjusted operating expenses dropped 1.3% year over year to $86.6 million.

The adjusted operating income totaled $65.6 million, down 71.4% from $229.4 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Financial Performance

Enphase Energy had $288.7 million in cash and cash equivalents as of Dec 31, 2023, compared with $473.2 million as of Dec 31, 2022.

Cash flow from operating activities amounted to $696.8 million at the end of 2023 compared with $744.8 million in the prior-year period.

Q1 Guidance

For the first quarter of 2024, ENPH expects revenues in the range of $260-$300 million. The consensus estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $332.4 million, which lies above the company’s guided range.

Enphase Energy expects shipments in the range of 70-90 MW hours of IQ batteries.

Adjusted operating expenses are expected between $80 million and $84 million. This excludes approximately $64 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition-related costs and amortization, as well as restructuring and asset impairment charges.

The adjusted gross margin is expected in the range of 44-47%, excluding stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition-related amortization.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -58.17% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Enphase Energy has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Enphase Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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