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What's in the Offing for Alcoa (AA) This Earnings Season?
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Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) is likely to register a decrease in the top line from last year’s quarterly reading when it reports first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 17, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.5 billion, reflecting a decline of 5.6% from the prior year’s quarterly reported figure.
The bottom line of this leading producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminum products is expected to decline from the earlier year’s quarterly figure. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has decreased 150% to a loss of 50 cents per share, suggesting a decline of 117.4% from last year’s quarterly level.
The company has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 69.2%, on average.
Key Factors to Note
A decrease in value-added product sales due to lower market demand and product premiums in both Europe and North America is expected to have hurt Alcoa’s Aluminum segment in the first quarter of 2024. Also, reduced Warrick power plant energy sales, lower average realized prices and decreased trading activities and shipments are likely to have weighed on the Aluminum segment’s sales in the quarter. For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aluminum segment’s third-party sales is $1.71 billion, implying a 5.8% decline from the year-ago reported number. The consensus mark for the Aluminum segment’s total sales is pegged at $1.65 billion, indicating an 8.8% dip from the year-ago reported number.
Given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have hurt Alcoa's overseas business in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, Alcoa’s Alumina segment has been reaping the benefits from higher shipments of alumina and increased volumes and prices from bauxite offtake and supply agreements. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $880 million, implying a 22.1% increase from the year-ago reported number.
Also, lower raw material and decreasing production costs across both segments are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alcoa this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Alcoa has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 50 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Alcoa presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings
In fourth-quarter 2023, Alcoa incurred an adjusted loss of 56 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 99 cents per share. The bottom line fared better than the adjusted loss of 70 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. However, the company’s revenues of $2.6 billion underperformed the consensus estimate by 0.7%. The top line declined 2.6% year over year.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies within the broader Industrial Products sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.
The company is slated to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 22. Crane Company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 25.1%.
AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25.
AptarGroup’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 7.8%.
Allegion plc (ALLE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is slated to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25.
Allegion’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 10.4%.
Image: Bigstock
What's in the Offing for Alcoa (AA) This Earnings Season?
Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) is likely to register a decrease in the top line from last year’s quarterly reading when it reports first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 17, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.5 billion, reflecting a decline of 5.6% from the prior year’s quarterly reported figure.
The bottom line of this leading producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminum products is expected to decline from the earlier year’s quarterly figure. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has decreased 150% to a loss of 50 cents per share, suggesting a decline of 117.4% from last year’s quarterly level.
The company has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 69.2%, on average.
Key Factors to Note
A decrease in value-added product sales due to lower market demand and product premiums in both Europe and North America is expected to have hurt Alcoa’s Aluminum segment in the first quarter of 2024. Also, reduced Warrick power plant energy sales, lower average realized prices and decreased trading activities and shipments are likely to have weighed on the Aluminum segment’s sales in the quarter. For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aluminum segment’s third-party sales is $1.71 billion, implying a 5.8% decline from the year-ago reported number. The consensus mark for the Aluminum segment’s total sales is pegged at $1.65 billion, indicating an 8.8% dip from the year-ago reported number.
Given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have hurt Alcoa's overseas business in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, Alcoa’s Alumina segment has been reaping the benefits from higher shipments of alumina and increased volumes and prices from bauxite offtake and supply agreements. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $880 million, implying a 22.1% increase from the year-ago reported number.
Also, lower raw material and decreasing production costs across both segments are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Alcoa Price and Consensus
Alcoa price-consensus-chart | Alcoa Quote
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alcoa this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Alcoa has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 50 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Alcoa presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings
In fourth-quarter 2023, Alcoa incurred an adjusted loss of 56 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 99 cents per share. The bottom line fared better than the adjusted loss of 70 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. However, the company’s revenues of $2.6 billion underperformed the consensus estimate by 0.7%. The top line declined 2.6% year over year.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies within the broader Industrial Products sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.
Crane Company (CR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 22. Crane Company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 25.1%.
AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25.
AptarGroup’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 7.8%.
Allegion plc (ALLE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is slated to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25.
Allegion’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 10.4%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.