Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider United States Steel?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. United States Steel (X) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.89 a share, just 10 days from its upcoming earnings release on April 25, 2024.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.89 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.79 Zacks Consensus Estimate, United States Steel has an Earnings ESP of +11.94%. Investors should also know that X is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
X is one of just a large database of Basic Materials stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is B2Gold (BTG).
Slated to report earnings on May 14, 2024, B2Gold holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.06 a share 29 days from its next quarterly update.
For B2Gold, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.05 is +33.33%.
X and BTG's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Why Investors Need to Take Advantage of These 2 Basic Materials Stocks Now
Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider United States Steel?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. United States Steel (X) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.89 a share, just 10 days from its upcoming earnings release on April 25, 2024.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.89 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.79 Zacks Consensus Estimate, United States Steel has an Earnings ESP of +11.94%. Investors should also know that X is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
X is one of just a large database of Basic Materials stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is B2Gold (BTG).
Slated to report earnings on May 14, 2024, B2Gold holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.06 a share 29 days from its next quarterly update.
For B2Gold, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.05 is +33.33%.
X and BTG's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>