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Aflac (AFL) Q1 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

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Aflac (AFL - Free Report) reported $5.44 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.3%. EPS of $1.66 for the same period compares to $1.55 a year ago.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +25.94% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.32 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.58, the EPS surprise was +5.06%.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.

Here is how Aflac performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

  • Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac Japan: 67% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 67.5%.
  • Tot. Adj. Expenses/Total Adj. Rev. - Aflac U.S. 38.7% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 39.2%.
  • Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac U.S. 46.5% compared to the 47.1% average estimate based on three analysts.
  • Tot. Adj. Expenses/Total Adj. Rev. - Aflac Japan: 18% compared to the 19.8% average estimate based on three analysts.
  • Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan: $2.47 billion versus $2.57 billion estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -11.4% change.
  • Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Total net earned premiums: $1.82 billion versus the four-analyst average estimate of $1.92 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -16.3%.
  • Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Net investment income: $655 million versus $650.27 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -2.1% change.
  • Total adjusted revenues- Aflac U.S.- Other income: $18 million compared to the $30 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -48.6% year over year.
  • Revenues- Other income (loss): $29 million versus the five-analyst average estimate of $42.49 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -37%.
  • Revenues- Net investment income: $1 billion versus $907.89 million estimated by five analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +6% change.
  • Revenues- Total net earned premiums: $3.46 billion versus the five-analyst average estimate of $3.43 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -6.3%.
  • Total adjusted revenues- Corporate and other: $247 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $142.70 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +91.5%.
View all Key Company Metrics for Aflac here>>>

Shares of Aflac have returned -1.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -4.1% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

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