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Why Is O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Down 7.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 7.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is O'Reilly Automotive due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

O'Reilly Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates

O’Reilly reported first-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS of $9.20, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.18. The bottom line increased from $8.28 per share reported in the prior-year quarter. The automotive parts retailer registered quarterly revenues of $3.98 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.96 billion. The top line also increased 7% year over year.

During the quarter, comparable store sales grew 3.4%. The company opened 37 new stores in the United States and Mexico and started operating 23 stores in Canada after completing the acquisition of Vast Auto in January. The total store count was 6,217 as of Mar 31, 2024.

Financials, Share Repurchase & Costs

In the reported quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses flared up 9% year over year to $1.28 billion. Operating income rose to $752 million from $717 million generated in the year-ago period. Net income was $547 million, up from $517 million in the year-ago quarter.

During the reported quarter, O’Reilly repurchased 0.3 million shares for $270 million at an average price of $1,029.24 per share. After the end of the quarter until the release date, ORLY repurchased an additional 0.1 million shares of common stock for a total investment of $79 million at an average price of $1,102 per share. As of Apr 24, the company had nearly $2.22 billion remaining under the current share repurchase authorization.

It had cash and cash equivalents of $89.3 million at the end of the reported quarter, down from $279.1 million recorded as of 2023-end. Its long-term debt was $5.29 billion, lower than $5.57 billion as of Dec 31, 2023.

During the reported quarter, O’Reilly generated $704.2 million in cash from operating activities, down from the year-ago period’s $713.8 million. Capital expenditures totaled $249.2 million, rising from $223.3 million in the year-ago period. Free cash flow was $438.9 million, indicating a decline of 9.7% year over year.

Updated 2024 Outlook

For full-year 2024, O’Reilly’s total revenue estimate remained unchanged at $16.8-$17.1 billion. It now expects diluted earnings per share in the range of $41.35-$41.85, up from the previous estimate of $41.05-$41.55. The outlook for comparable store sales growth remained unchanged at 3-5%. The outlook for free cash flow remained unchanged at $1.8-$2.1 billion. Capital expenditures remained unchanged at $900 million to $1 billion. The company intends to open 190-200 stores this year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, O'Reilly Automotive has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, O'Reilly Automotive has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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