A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Incyte (INCY Quick QuoteINCY - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Incyte due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Incyte Q1 Earnings & Revenues Fall Shy of Estimates

Incyte reported first-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of 64 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88 cents. The company had recorded earnings of 37 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenues in the reported quarter were $881 million, which grew 9% year over year, driven by the sustained performance of its lead drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib), and increased sales of Opzelura (ruxolitinib) cream on strong launch and demand. The top line, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $935.8 million.

Quarter in Detail

Jakafi’s (a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor approved for polycythemia vera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease) revenues came in at $571.8 million, down 1% from the year-ago quarter, owing to inventory drawdown. Jakafi's sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $634 million.

Opzelura (ruxolitinib) cream generated $85.7 million in sales, increasing 52% year over year but missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $100 million. The year-over-year rise in sales was driven by patient demand and expansion in payer coverage as launch in atopic dermatitis and vitiligo continues.

Opzelura (ruxolitinib) cream generated $85.7 million in sales, increasing 52% year over year but missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $100 million. The year-over-year rise in sales was driven by patient demand and expansion in payer coverage as the launch of atopic dermatitis and vitiligo continues.

The newly approved medicine, Zynyz (retifanlimab-dlwr), generated sales of $0.46 million. The company obtained accelerated approval for Zynyz to treat metastatic or recurrent locally advanced Merkel cell carcinoma.

Net product revenues of Iclusig were almost $30.3 million, up 10% year over year. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $27.7 million.
Pemazyre generated $17.6 million in sales, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 21%. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $22.1 million.

Minjuvi's revenues totaled $23.8 million, surging 264% from the prior year quarter’s number. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.9 million.

Incyte gained worldwide exclusive global rights for tafasitamab from MorphoSys AG, which is marketed as Monjuvi in the United States and as Minjuvi in the ex-U.S markets in February.

Jakavi royalty revenues from Novartis for commercialization in ex-U.S. markets rose 17% to $89.6 million. Jakavi royalties beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $86 million.

Incyte also receives royalties from the sales of Tabrecta (capmatinib) for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. Its partner, Novartis, has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights for Tabrecta. The royalty revenues from the drug’s sales amounted to $5.2 million, up 25% year over year.

Olumiant’s (baricitinib) product royalty revenues from Eli Lilly totaled $30.6 million, down 10% year over year. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $39.4 million.

Incyte has a collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for Olumiant.

The drug is a once-daily oral JAK inhibitor discovered by Incyte and licensed to LLY. It is approved for several types of autoimmune diseases.

Adjusted research and development expenses totaled $388.4 million, up 3% year over year. This was due to continued higher investment in late-stage development pipeline and assets.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses amounted to $277.3 million, down 6% from the prior-year quarter’s number. This was due to the timing of consumer marketing activities and of certain other expenses.

Incyte’s cash and cash equivalents totaled $3.9 billion as of Mar 31, 2024, compared with $3.7 billion as of Dec 31, 2023.

2024 Guidance

Incyte reiterated the guidance it provided earlier this year. The company continues to expect Jakafi revenues in the range of $2.69-$2.75 billion in 2024.

Adjusted research and development expenses are expected in the band of $1.58-$1.61 billion, while adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses are expected in the range of $1.11-$1.14 billion.

Pipeline Updates

Incyte has a collaboration and license agreement with Syndax to develop and commercialize axatilimab, the latter’s anti-CSF-1R monoclonal antibody, in chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and other fibrotic diseases.
In February 2024, the FDA accepted INCY and SNDX’s biologics license application (BLA) for axatilimab for Priority Review. The candidate was evaluated for the treatment of chronic GVHD after failure of at least two prior lines of systemic therapy. A decision from the regulatory body is due on Aug 28, 2024.

Incyte and Syndax submitted the BLA for axatilimab in chronic GVHD in December 2023.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.85% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Incyte has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Incyte has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.