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Europe, Asia Rates Stay Put: Global Week Ahead

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In the Global Week Ahead, central bank (CB) decisions in Europe, from the U.K., Switzerland and Norway, are expected to provide more evidence -- that the global rate-cutting dash is slowing to a crawl.

Ditto for static central bank (CB) decisions likely taken in Brazil and Mainland China.

Meanwhile, June’s retail sales data from the United States and Mainland China, will provide a global consumer health check.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—

(1) On Thursday, three major European central bank meetings happen.

Britain, Switzerland and Norway hold central bank meetings on Thursday.

The Bank of England will likely dash any hopes the ruling Conservative party had of a pre-July 4th election interest rate cut.

Markets now expect easing later rather than sooner, pricing a roughly 40% chance of an August quarter point move and a 70% chance in September with pay and services inflation sticky.

The Swiss National Bank kicked of rate cuts in March. Another cut on Thursday is seen as 50-50 after steady March inflation.

Norway, in no rush to cut rates with core inflation around 4%, releases new economic projections.

Australia's central bank meets on Tuesday and is not expected to ease for some time.

(2) On June 18th, fresh May U.S. Retail Sales numbers land.

Investors trying to get a handle on the strength of the U.S. economy — and the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts which are now not expected before September — will dig into the June 18 monthly retail sales numbers.

Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.3% in May, according to a Reuters poll of economists, after they were unexpectedly flat in April.

Consumer spending is an area of focus for Wall Street as investors seek to gauge the impact of higher interest rates on the economy. Data earlier this month showed the U.S. economy created far more jobs than expected in May, and annual wage growth picked up again.

However, recent data showed U.S. consumer prices were flat in May as cheaper gasoline and other goods offset higher costs for rental housing.

(3) Fading hopes for a Mainland China recovery. Home price data due on Monday.

Investors are sitting on the sidelines as they await a more robust recovery in China, particularly with the beleaguered property sector continuing to cast a dark cloud over the growth outlook.

Data on China's home prices is due on Monday — the first such release after Beijing announced "historic" steps to stabilize the property market last month, though to limited effect so far.

May industrial output, urban unemployment rate and retail sales data are all due too, with hopes the latter could point to a stronger uptick after April's disappointment.

Still, recent data continues to underscore the need for further stimulus from policymakers with the loan prime rate decision due on Thursday.

(4) Where do high cocoa prices go from here?

Cocoa prices are back above the watershed $10,000 per metric ton and closing in on all-time highs as the chocolate industry's supply crisis worsens amid global supply shortages due to adverse weather, chronic under-investment in cocoa farms and investor speculation.

Top producer Ivory Coast halted cocoa exports for June and forward sales for next season in recent days. Number two Ghana is looking to delay delivery of up to 350,000 tons of beans to next season due to poor crops.

Cocoa has more than doubled in price this year, and is now costlier than many metals. Chocolate producers are passing on the burden to consumers or tweaking their products.

Fresh production from countries outside of Africa such as Brazil and Ecuador will take time to come to the market.

(5) The UEFA European Football Championship kicks off.

The UEFA European Football Championship kicks off later on Friday in Munich, and with 24 teams playing 51 matches across 22 match-days, it won't just be Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane hoping to score big in Germany.

German beer halls and companies hope fans will drink more and buy a big TV. Berlin wants the tournament to give its lumbering economy the same kind of lift the sizzling 2006 World Cup did.

Kitmakers are pacing — almost two-thirds of the teams are sponsored by Nike and Adidas, including the two big favorites England and France as well as hosts Germany. France, Germany, and England's kit deals are worth over $150 million alone.

Here's a few stats to consider: A whopping 330 million people watched the 2020 Italy and England final — well over double that watched the Super Bowl.

Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

This week, I chose two European stocks, and one big U.S. chemical maker.

(1) ASM International (ASMIY - Free Report) : This is a $747 share price stock, found in the Semiconductor – Communications industry, with a market cap of $36.9B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

Zacks Investment Research
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ASM International is a leading supplier of equipment and solutions used to produce semiconductor devices, or integrated circuits, for both the front-end and back-end segments of the semiconductor market.

The company enables the customers to lower their production costs by providing leading-edge technology solutions and efficient manufacturing processes.

The company also designs, manufactures and sells equipment that deposits thin films, or layers, of electronically insulating or conductive material onto silicon wafers.

(2) Henkel AG and Co. (HENKY - Free Report) : This is a $20 share price stock, found in the Soap & Cleaning industry, with a market cap of $35.1B. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of C.


Zacks Investment Research
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Henkel AG ADR's principal activities are divided into four product divisions:

(a) Henkel technologies-industrial adhesives, contact adhesives and sealant
(b) Cosmetics/toiletries-hair cosmetics, toiletries, oral and skin care, hair salon products
(c) Detergents/household cleaners-heavy duty and specialty detergents, fabric softeners, household cleansers, kitchen care products, shoe care products, plant care products
(d) Adhesives-adhesives, contact adhesives and sealant for consumer and craftsman

(3) DuPont de Nemours (DD - Free Report) : This is a $80 share price stock, found in the Diversified Chemicals industry, with a market cap of $34.5B. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

Zacks Investment Research
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DuPont de Nemours, Inc., which was formerly known as DowDuPont Inc., started trading as a stand-alone company on Jun 3rd, 2019 following the separation of its Agriculture division through the spin-off of Corteva, Inc.

Following the Corteva separation, DuPont now holds the specialty products business of the former DowDuPont.

DuPont provides technology-based materials, ingredients and solutions. It serves markets including electronics, transportation, construction, health and wellness, food and worker safety. The company, which recorded revenues of $12.1 billion in 2023, has strong geographic, customer and end-market diversification and leading positions in core markets with businesses aligned with high-growth market trends.

Effective first-quarter 2021, the company realigned its businesses to three segments — Electronics & Industrial, Mobility & Materials and Water & Protection.

DuPont, in February 2022, agreed divest a majority of the Mobility & Materials (M&M) division to Celanese Corporation. The deal completed on Nov 1, 2022.

Following the divestment, DuPont currently has two segments: Electronics & Industrial and Water & Protection.

Electronics & Industrial: The segment is a leading supplier of differentiated materials and systems for a vast range of consumer electronics including electronics, mobile devices, television monitors and personal computers used in a number of industries. Products and technologies include chemical mechanical planarization consumables, semiconductor fabrication materials, circuit packaging film and laminate materials, digital inks, organic light emitting diode and other display process materials. It accounted for 44% of 2023 sales.

Water & Protection: The unit provides engineered products and integrated systems for a range of industries including water purification and separation, aerospace, energy, medical packaging, worker safety and building materials. Key products include Kevlar fiber, Nomex fiber and paper and Tyvek protective materials. It accounted for 47% of 2023 sales.

Corporate & Other, which includes the retained businesses and certain divested businesses, accounted for 9% of 2023 sales.

Key Global Macro

Lots of central bank decision happen, all week long. This is the traditional pattern, after a U.S. Fed meeting the week prior.

On Monday, there is a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy rate decision. 4.35% is not expected to change.

On Tuesday, U.S. Retail Sales for the month of May come out. Consensus sees a +0.3% m/m improvement. The prior reading was 0% m/m flatness.

On Wednesday, the Brazilian central bank is not expected to change its policy rate from 10.5%.

The Bank of China (PBoC) will likely keep its 1-year term loan prime rate at 4.35%, once again.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) will likely keep its policy rate at 5.25%.

On Friday, the flash Zone HCOB manufacturing PMI should be 48.5 in June, up from a 47.3 number in May.


Let’s wrap up, with a look ahead to second quarter S&P500 earnings.

Here are Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian’s four key Q2-24 earnings season points, made on June 12th:

(1) The setup for the Q2-24 earnings season, whose early reports have started trickling in, is one of continued resilience, coupled with a steadily improving outlook.

Given the favorable revisions trend, ahead of the beginning of this reporting cycle, we will be looking for further improvement in the Q2-24 outlook.

(2) For Q2-24, S&P500 earnings are expected to be up +8.6% from the same period last year, on +4.6% higher revenues.

While Q2-24 estimates have ticked down in recent weeks, they are barely down from where they stood in the aggregate, at the start of the period.

(3) Upward revisions to the Energy sector have been a big contributor to the favorable revisions trend since the start of Q2.

But estimates have also moved higher for the Transportation, Tech, Autos and Utilities sectors.

(4) Earnings growth for the Energy sector is on track to turn positive in Q2, after remaining in negative territory over the preceding four quarters.

Have an excellent week, trading and investing.

Warm Regards,

John Blank

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