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Tale of the Tape

Zacks Equity Research

3 Reasons Momentum Stock Investors Will Love Apollo Commercial (ARI)
September 23, 2016

ARI

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Many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, but this can be very tough to define. There is great debate regarding which metrics are the best to focus on in this regard, and which are not really quality indicators of future performance. Fortunately, with our new style score system we have identified the key statistics to pay close attention to and thus which stocks might be the best for momentum investors in the near term.

This method discovered several great candidates for momentum-oriented investors, but today let’s focus in on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI - Free Report) as this stock is looking especially impressive right now. And while there are numerous ways in which this company could be a great choice, we have highlighted three of the most vital reasons for ARI’s status as a solid momentum stock below:

Longer Term Price Change for Apollo Commercial

While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. That is why looking at longer term price metrics—such as performance over the past three months or year-- and comparing these to an industry at large can be very useful.

And in the case of ARI, the results are quite impressive. The company has beaten out the industry at large over the past 12 weeks by a margin of 7% to 5.8% while it has also outperformed when looking at the past year, putting up a gain of 0.5%. Clearly, ARI is riding a bit of a hot streak and is worth a closer look by investors. 

Quarter EPS Estimate Change for Apollo Commercial Stock

While looking at price performance or full year earnings can be essential to understanding a momentum stock, you shouldn’t forget about the current quarter EPS and the trend in estimates there. This change can signal how a stock might perform in the next earnings season which is obviously vital for momentum investors.

Right now, ARI is seeing a nice trend over the past month when it comes to this quarter’s earnings estimate projections. In the time frame, EPS estimates for Apollo Commercial have gone up by 3.3% compared to an industry average move of 0.0%, suggesting that not only is ARI heading in the right direction, but it is seeing an increase relative to the industry too.

ARI Earnings Estimate Revisions Moving in the Right Direction

While the great momentum factors outlined in the preceding paragraphs might be enough for some investors, we should also take into account broad earnings estimate revision trends. A nice path here can really help to show us a promising stock, and we have actually been seeing that with ARI as of late too.

Over the past two months, 1 earnings estimate has gone higher compared to no downward revisions for the full year, while we are also seeing 1 upward revision with no downward revisions for the next year time frame too.  These revisions have helped to boost the consensus estimate as two months ago ARI was expected to post earnings of $1.87/share for the full year, though today it looks to have EPS of $1.93 for the full year now, representing a solid increase which is something that should definitely be welcomed news to would-be investors.

Bottom Line

Given these factors, investors shouldn’t be surprised to note that we have ARI as a security with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and a Momentum Score of ‘A’.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

So if you are looking for a fresh pick that has potential to move in the right direction, definitely keep ARI on your short list as this looks be a stock that is very well-positioned to soar in the near term.

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