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PBPB Stock Outruns Industry in Past Three Months: Should You Buy Now?

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Shares of Potbelly Corporation (PBPB - Free Report) have gained 8.7% in the past three months, outperforming the industry’s 5.3% growth. Despite facing macroeconomic pressures, the company’s ability to grow in a tough environment, alongside its successful expansion strategy, has caught the attention of investors. But does this mean it’s time to buy PBPB stock?

Major Growth Drivers for PBPB Stock

Franchise Expansion: Potbelly’s growth strategy revolves around aggressive franchising, and the company is making significant progress in expanding its footprint. With 663 open and committed shops, Potbelly is on track to reach its long-term goal of 2,000 units across the United States. Franchise expansion provides Potbelly with a capital-light growth model, allowing the company to open more stores while minimizing risk. The company is optimistic about the franchise model's potential to fuel sustained growth, as Potbelly continues to sign deals in new markets, including its entry into Georgia.

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Digital Transformation: Potbelly has made significant strides in growing its digital sales. During the second quarter of 2024, digital channels accounted for 40% of total shop sales, up 200 basis points year over year. The company’s enhanced loyalty program, Potbelly Perks, is playing a major role in this success. Customers who join the Perks program demonstrate increased frequency in visits and higher engagement, making it a powerful tool for customer retention and sales growth. The ongoing shift toward Potbelly-owned digital channels also enhances profitability, as it reduces reliance on third-party platforms. As Potbelly continues to innovate in this space, it is likely to drive higher frequency and increased sales from its growing base of loyal customers.

Value-Driven Menu: With inflationary pressures impacting consumer spending, Potbelly has positioned itself as a value-driven brand. The introduction of the $7.99 Everyday Value Combo has been a notable success, attracting price-conscious customers while still protecting margins. This value-driven menu strategy has not only driven incremental sales but has also boosted customer satisfaction and return intent, making Potbelly a go-to option in a price-sensitive market.

Strong Future Outlook: Potbelly is set to continue expanding, with plans to open at least 30 new shops in 2024 and even more in 2025. The strong performance of recently opened shops, which are outperforming sales forecasts, is another indicator of the company’s successful market planning and operational execution. While the broader economic environment remains uncertain, Potbelly’s proactive approach to customer value, operational efficiency and digital transformation ensures that it is well-positioned for future growth.

The Bottom Line: Should You Buy PBPB Now?

Potbelly’s recent success is undeniable. The company is firing on all cylinders — expanding through franchising, transforming digitally and offering great value to customers. However, PBPB stock is currently trading at a premium, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 33.10X, well above the industry average of 24.59X. This high valuation, combined with an uncertain economic climate, means that it may not be the best time now to dive into a fresh purchase.

For current shareholders, holding onto your PBPB stock and watching how the company continues to grow seems like a smart move. But for new investors, it may be wise to wait for a more favorable entry point before jumping in.

PBPB's Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

PBPB currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Some other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector include Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH - Free Report) , Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL - Free Report) and El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO - Free Report) , each carrying a  Zacks Rank #2  at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Texas Roadhouse has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.4%, on average. TXRH’s shares have risen 65.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TXRH’s 2024 sales and earnings per Share (EPS) indicates 15.6% and 39.2% growth, respectively, from the year-earlier actuals.

Cracker Barrel has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average. CBRL’s shares have declined 38.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBRL’s 2024 EPS indicates 0.94% growth from the year-earlier actuals.

El Pollo Loco Holdings has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.6%, on average. LOCO’s shares have risen 52.7% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LOCO’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS indicates 2% and 12.7% growth, respectively, from the prior-year figures.

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