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What is happening across this four-trading day Global Week Ahead?
A momentous first half of 2025 comes to an end.
Trade, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitics stay high on the market watch list; for the second half.
There's plenty to chew over:
U.S. Federal June non-farm jobs data is out on Thursday
A European Central Bank (ECB) conference happens in Sintra, Portugal, and
Mainland China, U.S., and Euro Area manufacturing PMI numbers come out
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) The First Half of 2025 Is Over!
The year crosses the halfway line, and while U.S. President Donald Trump's return to power in January was always going to ruffle markets, even the most grizzled of traders have been shocked by the rodeo ride.
Some describe it as a once-in-a-generation "great rotation.”
The main evidence is that King Dollar is having its worst start to a year since the era of free-floating currencies began in the early 1970s, as U.S. debt worries grow.
The "Magnificent 7" stocks are flat for the year too, compared to a near +20% leap by Chinese "Big Tech,” gold's +25% surge and a +60% boom in European defense stocks.
There won't be much time for an H2 breather, either.
Trump wants to ram his "Big Beautiful" fiscal bill though by the Independence Day holiday, his temporary ceasefire in the global trade war is due to run out five days later.
(2) The June 2025 Federal Nonfarm Jobs Numbers Come In
Latest U.S. jobs data will shed light on the health of the labor market at a time when investors are debating at what point the Fed will next cut rates.
June numbers, due on July 3rd in the holiday-shortened week, are expected to show employment grew by +129K jobs, according to a Reuters poll.
That would be modestly slower growth than May's +139K increase.
While a possibly weaker labor market is one consideration for rate cuts, the Fed is also monitoring inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell just told Congress that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer.
Investors are also watching the progress of Trump's tax-cut and spending bill in Congress, with his Republican party hoping to keep it on track for the president to sign into law before the July 4th holiday.
(3) Global M&A is up +25% y/y across the First Half of 2025
Given tariffs and heightened market volatility, the first half has not gone too badly for dealmakers.
China and Japan, for instance, saw huge jumps in M&A, Dealogic data in the year to June 23rd suggests.
Hong Kong awaits a possible Shein IPO, which would give Asia equity issuance a further boost.
Global M&A remains off 2021 highs, but is still up on the same period last year, by nearly +25% at just over $2 trillion.
The activity was driven by fewer but bigger deals like Charter Communications' (CHTR - Free Report) , $22 billion bid for rival Cox Communications.
This trend is likely to persist, at least in the U.S., where M&A rose +8% to nearly $885 billion.
While a KPMG survey of U.S.-based corporate and private equity dealmakers found that nearly all said tariffs had impacted dealmaking plans, nearly three quarters expected M&A to exceed last year's levels.
For about two-thirds, potential tax policy changes would increase their appetite for M&A, and the new U.S. administration's approach to anti-trust would make deals easier.
(4) The European Central Bank’s Annual Forum Happens in Sintra, Portugal
Central bankers meet for the ECB's annual forum in the foothills of Portugal's Sintra Mountains on Tuesday, with focus on what rates-setters from ECB chief Christine Lagarde to the Fed's Powell say on never-ending geopolitical turbulence.
Whether it's the economic impact of renewed Middle East tensions or the July 9 tariff deadline, there's little clarity ahead, blurring rate cut expectations.
Investors will look for clues on ECB policy, and Powell is in the spotlight with Trump considering naming his successor early, fanning worries over Fed independence.
The ECB could also announce the results of its strategy review. For all the post-pandemic turmoil, policymakers are seen side-stepping calls for self-criticism, standing by the last decade's aggressive stimulus.
And Tuesday's data should show whether Eurozone inflation returns to its 2% target in June after dipping below it in May.
(5) Mainland China PMIs Will Educate Traders on the Growth Outlook There
It's already midway through the year, but China's long-awaited economic recovery has barely taken off.
Monday's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures are likely to paint the same bleak picture investors have faced for most of the year as Trump's tariffs hit manufacturing activity.
The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI reading follows the official release a day later, and the bar to surpass May's dismal numbers is relatively low.
Chinese officials sound upbeat about the growth outlook, but huge uncertainties loom.
Domestic deflationary pressures continue to deepen and a fragile Sino-U.S. trade truce is hardly the endgame. Tensions between the world's two largest economies remain, even if they are out of sight for now.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I deliberately picked three U.S. Info Tech sector large-cap stocks, to compare and contrast their charts and narratives.
They are U.S.-based. But their main corporate offices are not headquartered in Silicon Valley proper.
(1) Rockwell Automation (ROK - Free Report) : This is a $326 a share stock, with a market cap of $36.3B. It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Miscellaneous Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Based in Milwaukee, WI, Rockwell Automation provides industrial automation and information solutions worldwide. The company has a wide network spanning more than 100 countries.
The United States generates around 50% of the company’s total sales. Outside the U.S., the company’s primary markets are China, Canada, Mexico, Italy, the U.K., Germany, and Australia.
The company operates manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and multiple other countries. Manufacturing space occupied approximately 2.8 million square feet, of which 38% is in North America. Its brands include Rockwell Automation, Allen-Bradley and Rockwell Software.
Effective first-quarter fiscal 2021, Rockwell Automation started reporting results based on three operating segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services.
This change simplifies its structure around essential offerings, leverages its sharpened industry focus, and recognizes the growing importance of software in delivering value to customers.
Major markets served by the company consist of discrete end-markets (Automotive, Semiconductor, and Warehousing & Logistics, General Industries), which accounted for 25% of Rockwell Automation’s total sales in fiscal 2022.
Hybrid end-markets including Food & Beverage, Life Sciences and Household and Personal Care (among others) generated 40% of the company’s sales. The balance 35% of sales were generated from process end markets such as Oil & Gas, Metals, Chemicals, Pulp & Paper, to name a few.
Intelligent Devices (45.2% of revenues in fiscal 2023), segment includes drives, motion, safety, sensing, industrial components, and configured-to-order products
Software & Control (31.9% of revenues in fiscal 2023), includes control and visualization software and hardware, information software, and network and security infrastructure
Lifecycle Services (22.9% of revenues in fiscal 2023) includes consulting, professional services and solutions, connected services, and maintenance services, and the Sensia joint venture
(2) Jabil (JBL - Free Report) : This is a $215 a share stock, with a market cap of $23.0B. It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Manufacturing Services Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in St. Petersburg, FL, Jabil, Inc. is one of the largest global suppliers of electronic manufacturing services.
The company offers electronics design, production, product management and after-market services to customers in the aerospace, automotive, computing, consumer, defense, industrial, instrumentation, medical, networking, peripherals, storage and telecommunications industries.
The company reported revenues of $28.9 billion in fiscal 2024.
Jabil has reorganized its internal structure, and beginning fiscal 2025, the company is set to report its quarterly numbers under three reporting segments: Regulated Industries, Intelligent Infrastructure, Connected Living & Digital Commerce.
Regulated Industries (42.6% of fiscal 2024 net sales): The segment primarily focuses on developing high-quality manufacturing products for automotive & transportation, renewables & energy infrastructure, and healthcare end markets.
Intelligent Infrastructure (31.8%): The segment’s portfolio includes products related to capital equipment, networking & communications, and cloud & data center infrastructure end markets.
Connected Living & Digital Commerce (25.6%): The segment offerings include various consumer-facing products under the connected living end market and retail & warehouse automation products in the digital commerce end market.
The company’s largest customers are Apple, Cisco, Hewlett-Packard Company, Keysight Technologies, LM Ericsson, NetApp, Nokia Networks, SolarEdge Technologies, Valeo S.A. and Zebra Technologies.
Jabil faces significant competition from the likes of Benchmark Electronics, Celestica, Flex, Hon-Hai Precision Industry, Plexus and Sanmina.
(3) Paycom Software (PAYC - Free Report) : This is a $225 a share stock, with a market cap of $12.9B. It is found in the Zacks Internet Software Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Oklahoma City, Paycom Software, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) software as a service solution for integrated software for both employee records and talent management processes.
Founded in 1998, the company offers analytics that manages the complete employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement.
Paycom serves nearly 37,500 clients or nearly 19,400 customers based on Parent Company Grouping.
Its human resource services include retirement services administration, workers’ compensation administration, employee benefit solutions, professional employer organization and other administrative services for businesses.
Paycom’s HCM solution offers a full suite of applications that generally falls within the following categories, namely talent acquisition, time and labor management, payroll, talent management and HR management.
Its HCM software streamlines and automates many of the day-to-day record-keeping processes and provides a framework for HR staff to manage benefits administration and payroll, map out succession planning and document such things as personnel actions and compliance with industry and/or government regulations.
The cloud-based HCM reduces the administrative burden on employers and increases employee productivity.
In 2024, Paycom reported revenues of $1.88 billion, representing growth of +11% year over year. Recurring revenues of $1.76 billion grew +11% from the prior year and constituted 93% of total revenues.
Paycom talent acquisition and talent management applications compete primarily with Cornerstone OnDemand, Oracle, SAP and Workday
Its payroll applications including payroll processing rival primarily with Automatic Data Processing, Ceridian, Paychex, Paylocity and The Ultimate Software
Its HR management applications contend mainly with ADP, Ceridian, Oracle, Paychex, Paylocity, SAP and Workday
The company’s time and labor management applications compete primarily with ADP, Ceridian, Kronos, Paylocity and The Ultimate Software Group
As of Dec. 31st, 2024, the company had 7,300 employees across the United States.
Key Global Macro
Thursday’s June U.S. non-farm jobs data is the key print. Any meaningful surprises from this set of U.S. co-incident macro data will move stock and bond markets, up or down.
On Monday, Mainland China’s NBS manufacturing PMI for June ticked up to 49.7 from the prior May reading of 49.5. The consensus for June was 49.6. Non-Manufacturing PMI reached 50.5 for the month.
The Chicago PMI for June also came out at the second-lowest reading of 2025: 40.4. The prior May reading was already weak at 40.5. The June consensus was for 42.7.
The ECB’s President LaGarde gives a speech.
On Tuesday, the Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for June comes out. The prior May reading was 50.4.
The smaller company Caixin Manufacturing PMI for Mainland China comes out for June. The prior May reading was 48.3. The June reading was 49.0.
The Euro Area HCOB manufacturing PMI for June comes out. The prior May readding was 49.4.
The BoJ Governor Ueda, the BoE’s Governor Bailey, and the Fed’s Chair Powell give speeches from the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June comes out. The prior May reading was 48.5, while the June consensus is for 48.8.
U.S. JOLTS job openings for May come out. The prior month’s reading of 7.39M is roughly +400K more than the pre-COVID era.
On Wednesday, the Euro Area household unemployment rate for May comes out. The prior reading was 6.2%.
U.S. ADP job additions for June should be +81K. The May job adds were +37K.
On Thursday, U.S. weekly jobless claims come out. A prior week’s count at 236K was low, and does not foreshadow a U.S. recession.
Yet. Stay tuned to this claims data, though. The 4-week average is higher at 245K.
U.S. co-incident non-farm Federal payrolls for June should be +129K, a slight 10K lower than the prior May data at +139K.
The lagging U.S. household unemployment rate is pegged to stay flat at 4.2%.
On Friday, an Independence Day holiday is held in the USA. Markets are closed.
Conclusion
On June 25th, 2025, Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian put out this latest S&P500 earnings update for Q2, which officially closes out in this trading week.
His five key points:
(1) Total S&P500 earnings for the June quarter are expected to be up +4.9% from the same period last year on +3.9% higher revenues.
While negative revisions to Q2 estimates have stabilized in recent weeks, estimates for the period have been under significant pressure relative, to other recent periods since the June-quarter got underway.
(2) Q2-25 earnings estimates for 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors have come down since the quarter got underway.
Aerospace, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary are the only sectors whose estimates have modestly moved higher, since the start of April.
(3) Q2-25 earnings estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the two largest contributors to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, accounting for 51% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter got underway.
The quarter started with significant pressure on Tech sector estimates. But the negative revisions trend notably stabilized in the subsequent weeks.
(4) In terms of year-over-year growth, three sectors are expected to enjoy double-digit earnings growth in Q2-25:
Aerospace (+15.1%)
Tech (+11.8%), and
Consumer Discretionary (+105.6%)
On the negative side, seven sectors are expected to earn less in Q2 relative to the year-earlier period, with double-digit declines at the Energy (-24.9%), Construction (-14.4%), and Autos (-30.2%) sectors.
(5) The Q2-25 earnings season will really get going once JP Morgan (JPM - Free Report) , Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) kick-off the June-quarter reporting cycle for the Finance sector.
Enjoy this first trading week — of the 2nd half of 2025! Without any Q2 earnings reports on the daily slate, the U.S. June nonfarm jobs data is what is likely to focus trader’s attention.
That is, only if they are in the office, and not on a summer holiday.
Warm regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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First Half of 2025 Is Over! Global Week Ahead
What is happening across this four-trading day Global Week Ahead?
A momentous first half of 2025 comes to an end.
Trade, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitics stay high on the market watch list; for the second half.
There's plenty to chew over:
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) The First Half of 2025 Is Over!
The year crosses the halfway line, and while U.S. President Donald Trump's return to power in January was always going to ruffle markets, even the most grizzled of traders have been shocked by the rodeo ride.
Some describe it as a once-in-a-generation "great rotation.”
The main evidence is that King Dollar is having its worst start to a year since the era of free-floating currencies began in the early 1970s, as U.S. debt worries grow.
The "Magnificent 7" stocks are flat for the year too, compared to a near +20% leap by Chinese "Big Tech,” gold's +25% surge and a +60% boom in European defense stocks.
There won't be much time for an H2 breather, either.
Trump wants to ram his "Big Beautiful" fiscal bill though by the Independence Day holiday, his temporary ceasefire in the global trade war is due to run out five days later.
(2) The June 2025 Federal Nonfarm Jobs Numbers Come In
Latest U.S. jobs data will shed light on the health of the labor market at a time when investors are debating at what point the Fed will next cut rates.
June numbers, due on July 3rd in the holiday-shortened week, are expected to show employment grew by +129K jobs, according to a Reuters poll.
That would be modestly slower growth than May's +139K increase.
While a possibly weaker labor market is one consideration for rate cuts, the Fed is also monitoring inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell just told Congress that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer.
Investors are also watching the progress of Trump's tax-cut and spending bill in Congress, with his Republican party hoping to keep it on track for the president to sign into law before the July 4th holiday.
(3) Global M&A is up +25% y/y across the First Half of 2025
Given tariffs and heightened market volatility, the first half has not gone too badly for dealmakers.
China and Japan, for instance, saw huge jumps in M&A, Dealogic data in the year to June 23rd suggests.
Hong Kong awaits a possible Shein IPO, which would give Asia equity issuance a further boost.
Global M&A remains off 2021 highs, but is still up on the same period last year, by nearly +25% at just over $2 trillion.
The activity was driven by fewer but bigger deals like Charter Communications' (CHTR - Free Report) , $22 billion bid for rival Cox Communications.
This trend is likely to persist, at least in the U.S., where M&A rose +8% to nearly $885 billion.
While a KPMG survey of U.S.-based corporate and private equity dealmakers found that nearly all said tariffs had impacted dealmaking plans, nearly three quarters expected M&A to exceed last year's levels.
For about two-thirds, potential tax policy changes would increase their appetite for M&A, and the new U.S. administration's approach to anti-trust would make deals easier.
(4) The European Central Bank’s Annual Forum Happens in Sintra, Portugal
Central bankers meet for the ECB's annual forum in the foothills of Portugal's Sintra Mountains on Tuesday, with focus on what rates-setters from ECB chief Christine Lagarde to the Fed's Powell say on never-ending geopolitical turbulence.
Whether it's the economic impact of renewed Middle East tensions or the July 9 tariff deadline, there's little clarity ahead, blurring rate cut expectations.
Investors will look for clues on ECB policy, and Powell is in the spotlight with Trump considering naming his successor early, fanning worries over Fed independence.
The ECB could also announce the results of its strategy review. For all the post-pandemic turmoil, policymakers are seen side-stepping calls for self-criticism, standing by the last decade's aggressive stimulus.
And Tuesday's data should show whether Eurozone inflation returns to its 2% target in June after dipping below it in May.
(5) Mainland China PMIs Will Educate Traders on the Growth Outlook There
It's already midway through the year, but China's long-awaited economic recovery has barely taken off.
Monday's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures are likely to paint the same bleak picture investors have faced for most of the year as Trump's tariffs hit manufacturing activity.
The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI reading follows the official release a day later, and the bar to surpass May's dismal numbers is relatively low.
Chinese officials sound upbeat about the growth outlook, but huge uncertainties loom.
Domestic deflationary pressures continue to deepen and a fragile Sino-U.S. trade truce is hardly the endgame. Tensions between the world's two largest economies remain, even if they are out of sight for now.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I deliberately picked three U.S. Info Tech sector large-cap stocks, to compare and contrast their charts and narratives.
They are U.S.-based. But their main corporate offices are not headquartered in Silicon Valley proper.
(1) Rockwell Automation (ROK - Free Report) : This is a $326 a share stock, with a market cap of $36.3B. It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Miscellaneous Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Based in Milwaukee, WI, Rockwell Automation provides industrial automation and information solutions worldwide. The company has a wide network spanning more than 100 countries.
The United States generates around 50% of the company’s total sales. Outside the U.S., the company’s primary markets are China, Canada, Mexico, Italy, the U.K., Germany, and Australia.
The company operates manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and multiple other countries. Manufacturing space occupied approximately 2.8 million square feet, of which 38% is in North America. Its brands include Rockwell Automation, Allen-Bradley and Rockwell Software.
Effective first-quarter fiscal 2021, Rockwell Automation started reporting results based on three operating segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services.
This change simplifies its structure around essential offerings, leverages its sharpened industry focus, and recognizes the growing importance of software in delivering value to customers.
Major markets served by the company consist of discrete end-markets (Automotive, Semiconductor, and Warehousing & Logistics, General Industries), which accounted for 25% of Rockwell Automation’s total sales in fiscal 2022.
Hybrid end-markets including Food & Beverage, Life Sciences and Household and Personal Care (among others) generated 40% of the company’s sales. The balance 35% of sales were generated from process end markets such as Oil & Gas, Metals, Chemicals, Pulp & Paper, to name a few.
(2) Jabil (JBL - Free Report) : This is a $215 a share stock, with a market cap of $23.0B. It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Manufacturing Services Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in St. Petersburg, FL, Jabil, Inc. is one of the largest global suppliers of electronic manufacturing services.
The company offers electronics design, production, product management and after-market services to customers in the aerospace, automotive, computing, consumer, defense, industrial, instrumentation, medical, networking, peripherals, storage and telecommunications industries.
The company reported revenues of $28.9 billion in fiscal 2024.
Jabil has reorganized its internal structure, and beginning fiscal 2025, the company is set to report its quarterly numbers under three reporting segments: Regulated Industries, Intelligent Infrastructure, Connected Living & Digital Commerce.
The company’s largest customers are Apple, Cisco, Hewlett-Packard Company, Keysight Technologies, LM Ericsson, NetApp, Nokia Networks, SolarEdge Technologies, Valeo S.A. and Zebra Technologies.
Jabil faces significant competition from the likes of Benchmark Electronics, Celestica, Flex, Hon-Hai Precision Industry, Plexus and Sanmina.
(3) Paycom Software (PAYC - Free Report) : This is a $225 a share stock, with a market cap of $12.9B. It is found in the Zacks Internet Software Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Oklahoma City, Paycom Software, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) software as a service solution for integrated software for both employee records and talent management processes.
Founded in 1998, the company offers analytics that manages the complete employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement.
Paycom serves nearly 37,500 clients or nearly 19,400 customers based on Parent Company Grouping.
Its human resource services include retirement services administration, workers’ compensation administration, employee benefit solutions, professional employer organization and other administrative services for businesses.
Paycom’s HCM solution offers a full suite of applications that generally falls within the following categories, namely talent acquisition, time and labor management, payroll, talent management and HR management.
Its HCM software streamlines and automates many of the day-to-day record-keeping processes and provides a framework for HR staff to manage benefits administration and payroll, map out succession planning and document such things as personnel actions and compliance with industry and/or government regulations.
The cloud-based HCM reduces the administrative burden on employers and increases employee productivity.
In 2024, Paycom reported revenues of $1.88 billion, representing growth of +11% year over year. Recurring revenues of $1.76 billion grew +11% from the prior year and constituted 93% of total revenues.
As of Dec. 31st, 2024, the company had 7,300 employees across the United States.
Key Global Macro
Thursday’s June U.S. non-farm jobs data is the key print. Any meaningful surprises from this set of U.S. co-incident macro data will move stock and bond markets, up or down.
On Monday, Mainland China’s NBS manufacturing PMI for June ticked up to 49.7 from the prior May reading of 49.5. The consensus for June was 49.6. Non-Manufacturing PMI reached 50.5 for the month.
The Chicago PMI for June also came out at the second-lowest reading of 2025: 40.4. The prior May reading was already weak at 40.5. The June consensus was for 42.7.
The ECB’s President LaGarde gives a speech.
On Tuesday, the Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for June comes out. The prior May reading was 50.4.
The smaller company Caixin Manufacturing PMI for Mainland China comes out for June. The prior May reading was 48.3. The June reading was 49.0.
The Euro Area HCOB manufacturing PMI for June comes out. The prior May readding was 49.4.
The BoJ Governor Ueda, the BoE’s Governor Bailey, and the Fed’s Chair Powell give speeches from the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June comes out. The prior May reading was 48.5, while the June consensus is for 48.8.
U.S. JOLTS job openings for May come out. The prior month’s reading of 7.39M is roughly +400K more than the pre-COVID era.
On Wednesday, the Euro Area household unemployment rate for May comes out. The prior reading was 6.2%.
U.S. ADP job additions for June should be +81K. The May job adds were +37K.
On Thursday, U.S. weekly jobless claims come out. A prior week’s count at 236K was low, and does not foreshadow a U.S. recession.
Yet. Stay tuned to this claims data, though. The 4-week average is higher at 245K.
U.S. co-incident non-farm Federal payrolls for June should be +129K, a slight 10K lower than the prior May data at +139K.
The lagging U.S. household unemployment rate is pegged to stay flat at 4.2%.
On Friday, an Independence Day holiday is held in the USA. Markets are closed.
Conclusion
On June 25th, 2025, Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian put out this latest S&P500 earnings update for Q2, which officially closes out in this trading week.
His five key points:
(1) Total S&P500 earnings for the June quarter are expected to be up +4.9% from the same period last year on +3.9% higher revenues.
While negative revisions to Q2 estimates have stabilized in recent weeks, estimates for the period have been under significant pressure relative, to other recent periods since the June-quarter got underway.
(2) Q2-25 earnings estimates for 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors have come down since the quarter got underway.
Aerospace, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary are the only sectors whose estimates have modestly moved higher, since the start of April.
(3) Q2-25 earnings estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the two largest contributors to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, accounting for 51% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter got underway.
The quarter started with significant pressure on Tech sector estimates. But the negative revisions trend notably stabilized in the subsequent weeks.
(4) In terms of year-over-year growth, three sectors are expected to enjoy double-digit earnings growth in Q2-25:
On the negative side, seven sectors are expected to earn less in Q2 relative to the year-earlier period, with double-digit declines at the Energy (-24.9%), Construction (-14.4%), and Autos (-30.2%) sectors.
(5) The Q2-25 earnings season will really get going once JP Morgan (JPM - Free Report) , Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) kick-off the June-quarter reporting cycle for the Finance sector.
Enjoy this first trading week — of the 2nd half of 2025!
Without any Q2 earnings reports on the daily slate, the U.S. June nonfarm jobs data is what is likely to focus trader’s attention.
That is, only if they are in the office, and not on a summer holiday.
Warm regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist