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Restaurant Stocks' Q3 Earnings Slated for Oct 26: BWLD, CAKE

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The third-quarter earnings is slated to be the first quarter to report positive earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index following five back to back declines.

Per our latest Earnings Preview report, total earnings for the 116 S&P 500 members that have reported results (as of Oct 21) are up 3.3% from the year-ago quarter, courtesy of a 1.8% rise in revenues. Notably, 80.2% of the companies that have reported their quarterly numbers have beaten earnings estimates while 62.9% have surpassed top-line expectations.

Coming to the restaurant industry which belongs to the broader Retail-Wholesale sector, the space is expected to fare well this earnings season.

Some major players that have already reported their numbers include McDonald’s Corporation (MCD - Free Report) , Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) , Dunkin’ Brands Group , to name a few. While McDonald’s and Domino’s posted robust results beating their respective earnings and revenue estimates, Dunkin’ Brands missed its revenue estimates due to sluggish comps.

On the other hand, BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) posted disappointing results wherein both the earnings and sales missed their respective estimates due to a challenging sales environment.

We thus note that a soft consumer spending environment in the U.S. restaurant space which is leading to lower traffic and comps is turning out to be a major top-line headwind for most of the restaurateurs.

Two restaurant companies are set to report their third-quarter 2016 numbers on Oct 26. Will these companies manage to put up a decent performance? Let’s take a look at what might be in store for them this quarter:

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. posted a positive earnings surprise of 0.79% last quarter. However, before that, the company lagged earnings estimates in the three trailing quarters, bringing the average surprise in last four quarters to a negative 8.25%.

BUFFALO WLD WNG Price and EPS Surprise

Notably, our proven model shows that an earnings beat is uncertain for Buffalo Wild Wings in the quarter. This is because a company needs the right combination of the two key ingredients – a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better – to increase its odds of an earnings surprise. Please check our Earnings ESP Filter that enables you to find stocks that are expected to come out with earnings surprises.

For the quarter, the company has an Earnings ESP of -2.40% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s earnings is pegged at $1.25. We believe that the menu price increases made by the company along with a challenging macro environment in the U.S. restaurant industry might affect the to-be-reported quarter’s traffic trends, thereby putting comps under pressure. Nonetheless, Buffalo Wild Wings’ efforts to revive comps growth via various digital initiatives, remodeling of existing locations, promotional offerings, better food presentation and operational efficiency could aid in somewhat boosting the quarterly results (read more: Buffalo Wild Wings Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?).

The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE - Free Report) recorded a positive earnings surprise of 11.43% in the last quarter. In fact, the company posted positive earnings surprises in each of the past four quarters, with an average beat of 8.49%.

CHEESECAKE FACT Price and EPS Surprise

We note that Cheesecake Factory is unlikely to post a beat in the quarter as it has a Zacks Rank #4 and an Earnings ESP of +1.64%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s bottom line is pegged at 61 cents.

The company’s increased focus on home and office delivery, menu innovation, the rollout of an improved server training program and the launch of a mobile payment app should help in boosting comps this quarter. However, high costs and other sales-boosting initiatives might impact profitability, while a muted consumer spending environment in the U.S. restaurant space might hurt comps (read more: Cheesecake Factory Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?).

Stay tuned! Check back on our full write-up on earnings releases of these stocks.

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