Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC Quick QuoteMPC - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter results on Nov. 5. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of 97 cents per share on revenues of $31.6 billion.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the independent oil refiner and marketer’s results in the September quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at MPC’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q2 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator beat the consensus mark on the stronger-than-expected performance of its Refining & Marketing segment. MPC had reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.12, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.04. Revenues of $38.4 billion generated by the firm also came in above the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19.8%.

MPC beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, which resulted in an average earnings surprise of 29.6%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates an 88.1% drop year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 24.1% decrease from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

A lower refining margin may have acted as a headwind for Marathon Petroleum. Over the past few months, Gulf Coast crack spreads—a key profitability metric for refiners — have plunged almost 50% from previous levels. This significant dip impacts Marathon's earnings potential, as one-third of its refining capacity is located in this region. Although there has been some recovery in October, spreads remain below summer levels, posing a risk to near-term financial performance.

As per the Zacks Consensus Estimate, MPC’s Refining & Marketing unit is likely to have reported a loss of $64 million during the third quarter, implying a plunge from the $3.8 billion profit recorded in the year-ago period.

Marathon Petroleum is also expected to have suffered from higher costs during the quarter. In the second quarter of 2024, the company’s total costs and expenses of $35.8 billion rose 6.9% from a year ago. This trend is most likely to have continued in the July-September period of 2024.

But on a bullish note, the improvement in Marathon Petroleum’s Midstream segment results might have buoyed its to-be-reported bottom line. Thanks to higher gathering system throughputs, robust tariff rates and stable, fee-based revenues from its wide range of midstream energy services, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for this unit’s operating income is pegged at $1.3 billion, suggesting an increase of around $166 million from the prior-year quarter’s profit. This is likely to buoy the third-quarter results of MPC.

What Does Our Model Say?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Marathon Petroleum is likely to beat estimates in the third quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Marathon Petroleum has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 97 cents per share each.

Zacks Rank: MPC currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Marathon Petroleum, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Sunoco LP (SUN Quick QuoteSUN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.44% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sunoco indicates 154.3% year-over-year earnings per share growth. Valued at around $7.9 billion, SUN has increased 2.9% in a year.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM Quick QuoteXOM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.02% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 1.

ExxonMobil beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 1.8%, on average. Valued at around $468.8 billion, XOM has surged 10.8% in a year.

Energy Transfer LP (ET Quick QuoteET - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.29% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6.

Energy Transfer has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.2%, on average. Valued at around $56.1 million, ET has gained 24.6% in a year.