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AbbVie Stock Falls 11% in a Month: Should You Buy the Dip?
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AbbVie’s (ABBV - Free Report) stock declined almost 11% in the past month, mainly due to a recent pipeline setback. In November, AbbVie announced that two registration-enabling phase II studies on emraclidine, its once-daily oral candidate for treating schizophrenia, failed to meet their primary endpoints. Emraclidine was added to AbbVie’s pipeline with this year’s acquisition of Cerevel and was a key reason for AbbVie to buy the company, thus bringing into question the viability of the deal.
The failure of the phase II studies came as a surprise to investors, given the strength of the phase Ib data on emraclidine. ABBV’s stock crashed on the news, making investors wonder if they should sell the stock.
Though such pipeline failures hit a stock hard, we should understand the company’s fundamentals and its strengths and weaknesses to better analyze how to play the stock after the recent price dip.
ABBV’s Successful New Drugs — Skyrizi and Rinvoq
AbbVie lost patent protection for Humira in the United States in January 2023 and in the EU in 2018. Sales of Humira are declining due to loss of exclusivity and biosimilar erosion. However, AbbVie has successfully navigated Humira's loss of exclusivity by launching two other successful new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are performing extremely well, bolstered by approvals in new indications.
Both these medicines are likely to support top-line growth in the next few years. Importantly, Skyrizi and Rinvoq have demonstrated compelling head-to-head data against several novel therapies in clinical studies, which have given them a competitive advantage. AbbVie expects the combined sales (risk-adjusted) of Skyrizi and Rinvoq to be more than $27 billion by 2027. These drugs have the potential to replace Humira.
In the popular inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) space, which includes two conditions, ulcerative colitis (“UC”) and Crohn’s disease (”CD”), Rinvoq's uptake continues to be strong. Skyrizi is performing extremely well in CD and expects rapid access for the UC indication, for which approval was received in the United States in June and in the EU in July. AbbVie expects Skyrizi and Rinvoq to double their respective sales in IBD indications in 2024.
Meanwhile, new migraine drugs, Ubrelvy and Qulipta/Aquipta, represent a combined $3 billion-plus peak sales opportunity.
Boosted by its new product launches, AbbVie expects to return to robust mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 with a high single-digit CAGR through the end of the decade.
ABBV Boasts an Attractive Pipeline
AbbVie has several early/mid-stage pipeline candidates that have blockbuster potential. The company expects several regulatory submissions and approvals and key data readouts in the next 12 months.
For blood cancers and solid tumors, AbbVie has an exciting and diverse pipeline of promising new therapies like ABBV-383, a BCMA CD3 bispecific, in late-stage development for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma and Teliso-V, a promising c-Met ADC, which has been developed for nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer. AbbVie filed a biologics license application to the FDA for Teliso-V in September.
AbbVie and partner Genmab’s (GMAB - Free Report) Epkinly/Tepkinly (formerly epcoritamab) was approved for relapsed or refractory (r/r) third-line diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the United States and EU in 2023 and for third-line r/r follicular lymphoma in the United States in 2024. Earlier this month, AbbVie gained approval for Vyalev, a transformative therapy for treating advanced Parkinson’s disease. Studies are also ongoing to evaluate new indications for Botox and Juvederm Collection of fillers.
AbbVie on an Acquisition Spree This Year
AbbVie has been on an acquisition spree lately, which is strengthening its pipeline. It has signed several M&A deals in the immunology space, its core area, while also signing some early-stage deals in oncology and neuroscience areas.
In 2024, it acquired smaller biotechs like Landos Biopharma and Celsius Therapeutics, which are making novel drugs for treating IBD. It also signed a license agreement with China’s FutureGen to develop a next-generation anti-TL1A antibody for IBD. Among some recent deals, AbbVie agreed to acquire Aliada, a private biotech that makes neuroscience medicines and also expanded its existing neuroscience collaboration with Gedeon Richter.
ABBV’s Slowing Aesthetics Sales & Humira Erosion
Sales of AbbVie’s blockbuster drug Humira are declining due to biosimilar erosion. Though, till the first half of 2024, the erosion in Humira’s sales was slower than expected, on the third-quarter conference call, the company said that it has now begun to see more erosion in Humira volume to other novel mechanisms (including Skyrizi and Rinvoq) than previously anticipated. The company reduced its U.S. sales expectations for Humira for 2024.
AbbVie is also seeing declining sales of Juvederm fillers in the United States and China. Slowing growth of U.S. facial injectables market and persistent economic headwinds impacting consumer spending in China are hurting sales of Juvederm due to its higher price point. Juvederm sales declined 14.6% in the first nine months of 2024.
ABBV Stock Price Increase & Attractive Valuation
AbbVie stock has gained 9.5% so far this year compared with an increase of 8.0% for the industry.
ABBV Stock Outperforms Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, AbbVie appears attractive relative to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 14.11 forward earnings, lower than 16.95 for the industry. The stock is cheaper than some other large drugmakers like Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report)
ABBV Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings has risen from $10.87 to $10.93 per share over the past 30 days. For 2025, earnings estimates have risen from $12.10 to $12.18 per share over the past 30 days.
ABBV Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stay Invested in ABBV Stock
AbbVie’s third-quarter results, announced last month, were strong. It beat estimates for earnings and sales and raised its earnings and sales expectations for the year.
AbbVie faces its share of headwinds like Humira biosimilar erosion, increasing competitive pressure on cancer drug Imbruvica and slow market growth trends for fillers in the United States and China. However, AbbVie has faced its biggest challenge — Humira’s patent cliff — quite well and looks well-positioned for continued strong growth in the years ahead. Strong sales performance of drugs like Rinvoq, Skyrizi, Venclexta and Vraylar, coupled with significant contributions from newer drugs, like Ubrelvy, Elahere, Epkinly and Qulipta, should keep driving the company’s top line.
AbbVie is generating double-digit sales growth from its ex-Humira platform, which covers more than 80% of its total sales, exceeding the company’s expectations. The stock has an attractive dividend yield of around 3.6%. AbbVie recently announced an increase of 5.8% in its quarterly dividend for 2025.
AbbVie’s reasonable valuation, rising estimates, a solid pipeline and the prospect of growth in sales and profits in 2025 are good enough reasons for those who own this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock to stay invested. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The latest price dip can be a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
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AbbVie Stock Falls 11% in a Month: Should You Buy the Dip?
AbbVie’s (ABBV - Free Report) stock declined almost 11% in the past month, mainly due to a recent pipeline setback. In November, AbbVie announced that two registration-enabling phase II studies on emraclidine, its once-daily oral candidate for treating schizophrenia, failed to meet their primary endpoints. Emraclidine was added to AbbVie’s pipeline with this year’s acquisition of Cerevel and was a key reason for AbbVie to buy the company, thus bringing into question the viability of the deal.
The failure of the phase II studies came as a surprise to investors, given the strength of the phase Ib data on emraclidine. ABBV’s stock crashed on the news, making investors wonder if they should sell the stock.
Though such pipeline failures hit a stock hard, we should understand the company’s fundamentals and its strengths and weaknesses to better analyze how to play the stock after the recent price dip.
ABBV’s Successful New Drugs — Skyrizi and Rinvoq
AbbVie lost patent protection for Humira in the United States in January 2023 and in the EU in 2018. Sales of Humira are declining due to loss of exclusivity and biosimilar erosion. However, AbbVie has successfully navigated Humira's loss of exclusivity by launching two other successful new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are performing extremely well, bolstered by approvals in new indications.
Both these medicines are likely to support top-line growth in the next few years. Importantly, Skyrizi and Rinvoq have demonstrated compelling head-to-head data against several novel therapies in clinical studies, which have given them a competitive advantage. AbbVie expects the combined sales (risk-adjusted) of Skyrizi and Rinvoq to be more than $27 billion by 2027. These drugs have the potential to replace Humira.
In the popular inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) space, which includes two conditions, ulcerative colitis (“UC”) and Crohn’s disease (”CD”), Rinvoq's uptake continues to be strong. Skyrizi is performing extremely well in CD and expects rapid access for the UC indication, for which approval was received in the United States in June and in the EU in July. AbbVie expects Skyrizi and Rinvoq to double their respective sales in IBD indications in 2024.
Meanwhile, new migraine drugs, Ubrelvy and Qulipta/Aquipta, represent a combined $3 billion-plus peak sales opportunity.
Boosted by its new product launches, AbbVie expects to return to robust mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 with a high single-digit CAGR through the end of the decade.
ABBV Boasts an Attractive Pipeline
AbbVie has several early/mid-stage pipeline candidates that have blockbuster potential. The company expects several regulatory submissions and approvals and key data readouts in the next 12 months.
For blood cancers and solid tumors, AbbVie has an exciting and diverse pipeline of promising new therapies like ABBV-383, a BCMA CD3 bispecific, in late-stage development for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma and Teliso-V, a promising c-Met ADC, which has been developed for nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer. AbbVie filed a biologics license application to the FDA for Teliso-V in September.
AbbVie and partner Genmab’s (GMAB - Free Report) Epkinly/Tepkinly (formerly epcoritamab) was approved for relapsed or refractory (r/r) third-line diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the United States and EU in 2023 and for third-line r/r follicular lymphoma in the United States in 2024. Earlier this month, AbbVie gained approval for Vyalev, a transformative therapy for treating advanced Parkinson’s disease. Studies are also ongoing to evaluate new indications for Botox and Juvederm Collection of fillers.
AbbVie on an Acquisition Spree This Year
AbbVie has been on an acquisition spree lately, which is strengthening its pipeline. It has signed several M&A deals in the immunology space, its core area, while also signing some early-stage deals in oncology and neuroscience areas.
In 2024, it acquired smaller biotechs like Landos Biopharma and Celsius Therapeutics, which are making novel drugs for treating IBD. It also signed a license agreement with China’s FutureGen to develop a next-generation anti-TL1A antibody for IBD. Among some recent deals, AbbVie agreed to acquire Aliada, a private biotech that makes neuroscience medicines and also expanded its existing neuroscience collaboration with Gedeon Richter.
ABBV’s Slowing Aesthetics Sales & Humira Erosion
Sales of AbbVie’s blockbuster drug Humira are declining due to biosimilar erosion. Though, till the first half of 2024, the erosion in Humira’s sales was slower than expected, on the third-quarter conference call, the company said that it has now begun to see more erosion in Humira volume to other novel mechanisms (including Skyrizi and Rinvoq) than previously anticipated. The company reduced its U.S. sales expectations for Humira for 2024.
AbbVie is also seeing declining sales of Juvederm fillers in the United States and China. Slowing growth of U.S. facial injectables market and persistent economic headwinds impacting consumer spending in China are hurting sales of Juvederm due to its higher price point. Juvederm sales declined 14.6% in the first nine months of 2024.
ABBV Stock Price Increase & Attractive Valuation
AbbVie stock has gained 9.5% so far this year compared with an increase of 8.0% for the industry.
ABBV Stock Outperforms Industry
From a valuation standpoint, AbbVie appears attractive relative to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 14.11 forward earnings, lower than 16.95 for the industry. The stock is cheaper than some other large drugmakers like Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report)
ABBV Stock Valuation
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings has risen from $10.87 to $10.93 per share over the past 30 days. For 2025, earnings estimates have risen from $12.10 to $12.18 per share over the past 30 days.
ABBV Estimate Movement
Stay Invested in ABBV Stock
AbbVie’s third-quarter results, announced last month, were strong. It beat estimates for earnings and sales and raised its earnings and sales expectations for the year.
AbbVie faces its share of headwinds like Humira biosimilar erosion, increasing competitive pressure on cancer drug Imbruvica and slow market growth trends for fillers in the United States and China. However, AbbVie has faced its biggest challenge — Humira’s patent cliff — quite well and looks well-positioned for continued strong growth in the years ahead. Strong sales performance of drugs like Rinvoq, Skyrizi, Venclexta and Vraylar, coupled with significant contributions from newer drugs, like Ubrelvy, Elahere, Epkinly and Qulipta, should keep driving the company’s top line.
AbbVie is generating double-digit sales growth from its ex-Humira platform, which covers more than 80% of its total sales, exceeding the company’s expectations. The stock has an attractive dividend yield of around 3.6%. AbbVie recently announced an increase of 5.8% in its quarterly dividend for 2025.
AbbVie’s reasonable valuation, rising estimates, a solid pipeline and the prospect of growth in sales and profits in 2025 are good enough reasons for those who own this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock to stay invested. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The latest price dip can be a buying opportunity for long-term investors.