Wednesday, November 27, 2024
The morning before our Thanksgiving holiday this year, we see a large data dump of economic reports hitting the tape. Normally we’d see these spread out through the end of the week, but with everyone off on Thursday and only a half-day of trading Friday, we pull all these pertinent data points to this morning.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain Calm
Initial Jobless Claims continue to defy any perceived weakness in the overall labor market. For last week, 213K new claims were reportedly filed, below expectations of 215K and slightly down from the upwardly revised 215K the previous week. This marks the third-straight week below 220K, and considering we had jumped to 260K back in the first week of October, these lower weekly numbers sill look like a win.
Of course, a significant number of retirees factor into this data. A young Baby Boomer or an older, successful Gen-Xer may have gotten their pink slip in recent weeks and decided to call it a career instead of file for unemployment claims. This would answer at least partly for these relatively low new claims numbers with the low monthly non-farm payroll headlines we’ve seen lately.
Continuing Claims, which had crossed over to 1.9 million in last week’s report for the first time in three years, ticks down ever so slightly, from 1.91 million posted a week ago to 1.907 million this morning. It would appear we’ve embarked on a new tier higher in longer-term jobless claims, from 1.7-1.8 million at the start of 2024 to around 1.85 million mid-year to 1.9 million now. At this rate, we’d be back up at 2 million longer-term jobless claims by next summer. This wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it would be a clear sign of a further cooling labor market.
Other Economic Data: Durable Goods, Trade Balance, GDP
As we say, it’s a veritable smorgasbord of pre-Thanksgiving data today:
Durable Goods Orders for October swung back into the positive column this morning, +0.2%, from an upwardly revised -0.4% the prior month, but lower than the +0.5% consensus estimate.
Ex-transportation, this headline shrinks to +0.1%, with
non-Defense, ex-aircraft (a proxy for “normal” business spending) a higher-than-expected +0.2%.
Capital goods orders came in at +0.3%, down from the previous read of +0.7%.
Shipments were in-line at +0.2%.
U.S. Trade Balance of Goods, also for October, thankfully cooled a bit to a still-deep -$99.1 billion from the prior-month print of -$108.7 billion, which was the second-worst trade balance headline of all-time (going back to 1999). We can look at this as companies pulling business forward ahead of President-elect Trump’s new tariffs policy coming down the pike.
The first revision to
Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained steady at +2.8%, same as the first look, and inoffensively 20 basis points (bps) below Q2’s final +3.0%. The
Price Index ticked up to +1.9% from +1.8% reported a month ago, with the core headline +2.1%, down 10 bps from +2.2% last time around.
Consumption cooled a tad to +3.5%, down 20 bps from the last read.
What to Expect for the Last Full Trading Day of the Week
After the opening bell today, we’ll get the full
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Year over year, analysts expect +2.3% for October, up from the +2.1% reported last month. Core year over year (subtracting volatile food and energy prices) is expected to reach +2.8%, 10 bps up from September’s +2.7%.
We’ll also see
Pending Home Sales for October come out at 10am ET today. Expectations are for this to drop significantly to +1.8% from the prior month’s +7.4%. This report follows yesterday’s New Home Sales, which came in well below expectations: +610K seasonally adjusted, annualized units from +738K for September.
In any case, the Dow looks to add to its record-high close Tuesday, +57 points, while the S&P 500, which also put up an all-time high close yesterday, is currently down -3 points in the pre-market. The Nasdaq looks to shed -50 points at this hour, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is +17 points currently.
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Pre-Thanksgiving Smorgasbord of Econ Data
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
The morning before our Thanksgiving holiday this year, we see a large data dump of economic reports hitting the tape. Normally we’d see these spread out through the end of the week, but with everyone off on Thursday and only a half-day of trading Friday, we pull all these pertinent data points to this morning.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain Calm
Initial Jobless Claims continue to defy any perceived weakness in the overall labor market. For last week, 213K new claims were reportedly filed, below expectations of 215K and slightly down from the upwardly revised 215K the previous week. This marks the third-straight week below 220K, and considering we had jumped to 260K back in the first week of October, these lower weekly numbers sill look like a win.
Of course, a significant number of retirees factor into this data. A young Baby Boomer or an older, successful Gen-Xer may have gotten their pink slip in recent weeks and decided to call it a career instead of file for unemployment claims. This would answer at least partly for these relatively low new claims numbers with the low monthly non-farm payroll headlines we’ve seen lately.
Continuing Claims, which had crossed over to 1.9 million in last week’s report for the first time in three years, ticks down ever so slightly, from 1.91 million posted a week ago to 1.907 million this morning. It would appear we’ve embarked on a new tier higher in longer-term jobless claims, from 1.7-1.8 million at the start of 2024 to around 1.85 million mid-year to 1.9 million now. At this rate, we’d be back up at 2 million longer-term jobless claims by next summer. This wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it would be a clear sign of a further cooling labor market.
Other Economic Data: Durable Goods, Trade Balance, GDP
As we say, it’s a veritable smorgasbord of pre-Thanksgiving data today:
Durable Goods Orders for October swung back into the positive column this morning, +0.2%, from an upwardly revised -0.4% the prior month, but lower than the +0.5% consensus estimate. Ex-transportation, this headline shrinks to +0.1%, with non-Defense, ex-aircraft (a proxy for “normal” business spending) a higher-than-expected +0.2%. Capital goods orders came in at +0.3%, down from the previous read of +0.7%. Shipments were in-line at +0.2%.
U.S. Trade Balance of Goods, also for October, thankfully cooled a bit to a still-deep -$99.1 billion from the prior-month print of -$108.7 billion, which was the second-worst trade balance headline of all-time (going back to 1999). We can look at this as companies pulling business forward ahead of President-elect Trump’s new tariffs policy coming down the pike.
The first revision to Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained steady at +2.8%, same as the first look, and inoffensively 20 basis points (bps) below Q2’s final +3.0%. The Price Index ticked up to +1.9% from +1.8% reported a month ago, with the core headline +2.1%, down 10 bps from +2.2% last time around. Consumption cooled a tad to +3.5%, down 20 bps from the last read.
What to Expect for the Last Full Trading Day of the Week
After the opening bell today, we’ll get the full Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Year over year, analysts expect +2.3% for October, up from the +2.1% reported last month. Core year over year (subtracting volatile food and energy prices) is expected to reach +2.8%, 10 bps up from September’s +2.7%.
We’ll also see Pending Home Sales for October come out at 10am ET today. Expectations are for this to drop significantly to +1.8% from the prior month’s +7.4%. This report follows yesterday’s New Home Sales, which came in well below expectations: +610K seasonally adjusted, annualized units from +738K for September.
In any case, the Dow looks to add to its record-high close Tuesday, +57 points, while the S&P 500, which also put up an all-time high close yesterday, is currently down -3 points in the pre-market. The Nasdaq looks to shed -50 points at this hour, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is +17 points currently.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>