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Why Is Agnico (AEM) Down 3.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Agnico due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Agnico Eagle's Earnings and Sales Outpace Q3 Estimates

Agnico Eagle Mines reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of $1.14 per share, up from 44 cents in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 98 cents.

The company generated revenues of $2,155.6 million, up 31.2% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,825.8 million.

Net income, in the reported quarter, increased due to stronger mine operating margins resulting from higher realized gold prices and higher sales volumes, gains on derivative financial instruments and lower amortization expenses. These were partly offset by higher income and mining tax expenses and increased production costs.

Operational Highlights

Payable gold production was 863,445 ounces in the reported quarter, up from 850,429 ounces in the prior-year quarter. The figure surpassed our estimate of 811,249 ounces.
Total cash costs per ounce for gold were $921, up from $898 a year ago. It was higher than our estimate of $903.

Realized gold prices were $2,492 per ounce in the quarter, up from $1,928 a year ago. It was above our estimate of $2,265.

AISC were $1,286 per ounce in the quarter compared with $1,210 per ounce a year ago. It was higher than our estimate of $1,260.

Financial Position

Agnico Eagle ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $977.2 million, up 174.8% year on year. Long-term debt was around $1,052.2 million, down 42.9%.

Total cash from operating activities amounted to $1,084.5 million in the third quarter, up from $502 million a year ago.

Outlook

The company expects its 2024 gold production to be in the range of 3.35-3.55 million ounces and is on track to meet the mid-point of the range. Agnico Eagle anticipates meeting its 2024 projection of between $875 and $925 for total cash costs per ounce and between $1,200 and $1,250 for AISC per ounce. With capitalized exploration excluded, it expects total capital expenditures for 2024 to be in the range of $1.6 million to $1.7 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 12.91% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Agnico has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Agnico has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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