In the Global Week Ahead, a Christmas holiday 2024 trading week is upon us.

During this final "Week Ahead" of the year, a spare set of macro data releases will be eyed for divergences, between a strong U.S. economy and “The Rest of the World.”

In particular, stock traders will look for macro-level behavioral changes, ahead of the incoming Trump administration.

However, New Year’s 2025 clues likely are needed.

To gauge any meaningfully change in U.S. or global macro-economic trends better.

Here is what S&P Global Chief Economist Chris Williamson shared—

(1) Highlights for the Christmas 2024 trading week include:

• Real GDP growth updates from the U.K. and Spain, accompanied later in the week by industrial production and retail sales for Japan, plus trade balance data out of the U.S. 
• Central bank meeting minutes from Japan, Canada and Australia.

1. The Bank of Japan's meeting notes will be eyed for a sense of how hawkish BoJ policymakers are, after December's 8-1 decision to hold, 
2. Dovish outlooks at the central banks of Canada and Australia will be monitored, especially for any clues as to how policymakers in these countries may respond to a changing tariff environment in 2025.

(2) We must wait for New Year 2025 to see more interesting, timelier economic data. 

• In particular, the first week of the New Year includes worldwide PMI data, while 
• The second week brings the U.S. non-farm payroll report, along with
• Flash December inflation numbers out of the Eurozone, and an update on U.K. recruitment. 
• The latter has become especially newsworthy, as U.K. companies have shown a reluctance to hire following recent payroll-tax rises announced by the government.

(3) December flash PMIs showed a widening divergence, between a fast-expanding U.S. economy and a Euro Zone economy mired in a downturn for a second month running.

Japan's economy also remained subdued.

U.S. survey respondents have reported increasingly robust outlooks for the year ahead -- amid hopes of increased government support in terms of protectionism, lower taxation, domestic political stability and looser regulation.

The opposite applies in Europe. U.S. protectionism worries are compounded by political crisis in Germany and France.

How such tariff worries are playing out in other economies, notably mainland China, will be especially awaited.

(4) Finally, we may see some pull-back in the December 2024 U.S. non-farm payroll numbers from the hurricane-related rebound seen in November.

Though U.S. PMI data have hinted at a modest rise in private sector jobs to signal some sustained underlying labor market health.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

I picked a diverse set of large-cap stocks this week.

(1) Marvel Technologies (MRVL Quick QuoteMRVL - Free Report) : This is a $112 a share stock, with a market cap of $94.4B, found in the electronics-semiconductor industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

(2) Zurich Insurance Companies (ZURVY Quick QuoteZURVY - Free Report) : This is a $30 a share stock, with a market cap of $87.7B, found in the insurance-multi-line industry. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

(3) McKesson (MCK Quick QuoteMCK - Free Report) : This is a $581 a share stock, with a market cap of $73.5B, found in the medical-dental supplies industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
 

Key Global Macro

With a four-day trading week, and a major Western holiday, don’t expect much to stir U.S. or global share markets in terms of macro data.

On Monday, the latest U.S. Consumer Confidence numbers for DEC come out. The 113 median forecast is higher than the prior 111.3 monthly reading. The U.S. consumer continues to be a strong source of spending support.

Spain’s final y/y GDP growth numbers come out. Consensus looks for a +3.4% y/y following a 3.2% y/y reading last year.

Australia’s latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes come out.

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) meeting minutes come out.

On Tuesday, U.S. Durable Goods numbers for NOV come out. The median forecast looks for a -0.3% m/m decline, following a +0.2% prior reading.

On Wednesday, there is the Christmas holiday for the Western world.

On Thursday, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on Dec. 21st should be low at 225K, following an also low 220K the week prior.

On Friday, U.S. Goods Trade Balances come out. This subject has regained scrutiny, in a post-U.S. presidential election world. Expect a -$100.9B monthly U.S. goods trade deficit.
 

Conclusion

On Dec. 13th, 2024, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian supplied his latest earnings insights—

I will conclude with his four fresh Q4-24 earnings updates.

(1) For Q4-24, Zacks expects total S&P500 earnings to be up +7.4% from the same period last year, on +4.8% higher revenues.

(2) Q4-24 earnings growth improves to +9.5%, once the Energy sector’s drag is removed from the aggregate numbers.

But the S&P500 index earnings growth pace drops to +4.0%, once the critical Info Tech sector’s substantial contribution is excluded.

(3) S&P500 earnings estimates for the Q4-24 period have steadily come down since the quarter got underway.

The current +7.4% growth rate is down from a +9.8% growth rate seen in early October.

(4) Zacks expect Q4-24 earnings for the ‘Mag 7’ group of companies to be up a still-strong +20.7% from the same period last year, on +12.3% higher revenues.

If we exclude the ‘Mag 7’ contribution?

Q4-24 earnings for the rest of the S&P500 index would be up only +3.4% (vs. +7.4%).

That’s it for me.

Have a nice Christmas holiday, all!

Warm Regards,

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist