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UAL's Q4 Earnings Coming Up: Time to Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

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United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) is set to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 21, after market close.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised 1.7% upward in the past 60 days and is pegged at $3.01 per share. Additionally, the consensus mark implies a 50.5% uptick from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 revenues is pegged at $14.4 billion, indicating a 5.6% upward movement from the year-ago actual.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

UAL has a stellar earnings surprise history, as reflected in the chart below.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Q4 Earnings Whispers for UAL

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for UAL this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

The company's Earnings ESP is +1.57%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $3.06 per share, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.01. UAL currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Factors to Note

Upbeat passenger volumes are expected to have boosted UAL’s top-line performance in the December quarter. Notably, the majority of passenger revenues are likely to have come from domestic markets. Having said that, international passenger revenues are also likely to have been strong in the quarter to be reported with demand for international flights being robust.

United Airlines’ strong presence in international markets is likely to have driven international passenger revenues. Upbeat passenger volumes during the winter holiday period are likely to have boosted the top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. The Chicago-based carrier's transatlantic bookings for the 2024 winter were 30% higher than pre-COVID levels. We expect total passenger revenues to increase 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from year-ago actuals.

Low oil prices are expected to have aided the bottom line. We expect the fuel price per gallon in the December quarter to be $2.81. Our estimate indicates a 10.1% decline from year-ago actuals.  High labor costs are likely to have hurt the bottom line.

UAL’s Price Performance & Valuation

Driven by upbeat air travel demand, UAL shares have performed exceedingly well over the past year, gaining in triple digits and outperforming its industry, the S&P 500 index and fellow airlines, Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) and American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) .

One-Year Price Performance

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation perspective, United Airlines is trading cheaper than the industry. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.58X, lower than the industry average of 1.16X. The company has a Value Score of A.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Investment Thesis of UAL

Improvement in air travel demand following the end of the pandemic bodes well for United Airlines' top line. While air travel demand is particularly strong on the leisure front, business travel has also made an encouraging comeback.

United Airlines is well-positioned for continued success in 2025. With air travel demand expected to remain healthy, UAL stock should continue to perform well. UAL’s expansion strategy, coupled with a focus on premium demand, serves it well and positions the Chicago-based carrier to capture a larger slice of the recovering travel market. Donald Trump's re-election is a positive for the airline industry and is expected to lead to a return to the pro-business stance that characterized his first term.

Final Thoughts on UAL’s Q4 Outcome

UAL is set for an impressive fourth-quarter performance, backed by strong passenger revenues and low fuel costs. Despite high labor costs, UAL’s commitment to improving efficiency reinforces its growth outlook, making it a compelling investment option ahead of earnings.


 


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