Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Chipotle Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Lag, Stock Slips 5%

Read MoreHide Full Article

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) posted fourth-quarter 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Following the results, shares of the company declined 5% in the after-hours trading session yesterday. Negative investor sentiments were witnessed as CMG announced tepid annual comparable sales growth for 2025.

The company remains cautious of higher costs of raw materials (including avocados) and potential tariffs on Mexican imports. If the recently announced tariffs go into full effect, they could impose an ongoing impact of about 60 basis points on the company's cost of sales, potentially adding further margin pressures.

CMG’s Q4 Earnings & Revenue Discussion

In the quarter under review, CMG reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 25 cents, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents. The bottom line increased 19% from 21 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

Quarterly revenues of $2.8 billion missed the consensus mark by 0.2%. However, the top line rose 13.1% on a year-over-year basis. This upside was driven by new restaurant openings and strong comparable restaurant sales growth.

Comparable restaurant sales in the fourth quarter rose 5.4% compared with 6% growth in the previous quarter. Our estimate was pegged at 6.5%. During the quarter, comps were backed by higher transactions of 4% as well as a 1.4% rise in average checks.

During the fourth quarter, digital sales contributed 34.4% to total food and beverage revenues.

Chipotle’s Restaurant Openings

Strength in new restaurant openings aided the company’s performance in the fourth quarter. In the reported quarter, Chipotle opened 119 new restaurants in 95 locations, including a Chipotlane. It also opened an internationally licensed restaurant.

CMG’s Costs, Operating Highlights & Net Income

In the fourth quarter of 2024, food, beverage and packaging costs, as a percentage of revenues, came in at 30.4% compared with 29.7% reported in the prior-year quarter. The rise in costs was driven by inflationary costs across avocados and dairy and increased ingredient usage (aimed at delivering consistent, generous portions). Additionally, a shift in protein mix, spurred by the popularity of the Smoked Brisket limited-time offering, contributed to the cost uptick. This was partly offset by the positive impact of menu price hikes. We expected the metric to be 30.9%.

In the quarter under discussion, the restaurant-level operating margin reached 24.8%, down from 25.4% reported in the prior-year period. We predicted the metric to be 24.6%.

Adjusted net income in the reported quarter amounted to $340 million, up 18.8% year over year. Our estimate for the metric was $322.8 million.

Balance Sheet of Chipotle

As of Dec. 31, 2024, the company reported cash and cash equivalents of $748.5 million compared with $560.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2023.

As of Dec. 31, 2024, inventory totaled $48.9 million compared with $39.3 million as of Dec. 31, 2023. Goodwill (as a percentage of total assets) reached 0.23% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.

CMG 2024 Highlights

Total revenues in 2024 amounted to $11.3 billion compared with $9.87 billion in 2023.

Adjusted net income in 2024 came in at $1.54 billion compared with $1.24 billion reported in 2023.

In 2024, adjusted diluted EPS came in at $1.12 compared with 90 cents reported in the previous year.

CMG’s 2025 Outlook

For 2025, management continues to expect comps growth in the low to mid-single-digit range. The management expects to open between 315 and 345 new company-operated restaurants in 2025, with more than 80% featuring a Chipotlane. It expects a tax rate in the range of 25-27% in 2025.

CMG’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

Chipotle currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Some other better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry are:

Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) presently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). EAT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.7%, on average. The stock has surged 322% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.

The consensus estimate for EAT’s fiscal 2025 sales and EPS indicates growth of 17.2% and 92.9%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s levels.

Kura Sushi USA, Inc. (KRUS - Free Report) currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1. KRUS has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 70.8%, on average. The stock has declined 18.9% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KRUS’ 2025 sales and EPS indicates a rise of 18.3% and 237.5%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s levels.

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB - Free Report) currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. PBPB has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 67.5%, on average. The stock has gained 4.5% in the past year.

The consensus estimate for PBPB’s 2025 sales and EPS indicates growth of 4.3% and 12.5%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s levels.

Published in