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Can Diamondback Energy Pull Off a Strong Show in Q4 Earnings?

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Diamondback Energy (FANG - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 24. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $3.26 per share on revenues of $3.4 billion.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the Permian-focused oil and gas producer’s performance in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at FANG’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, this Midland, TX-based upstream player missed the consensus mark due to a fall in overall realization. Diamondback had reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.38 in the third quarter, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.80. However, revenues of $2.6 billion went past the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.6% on strong production.

FANG beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. This is depicted in the graph below:

Diamondback Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Diamondback Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Diamondback Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Diamondback Energy, Inc. Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 0.9% downward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 31.2% drop year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, however, suggests a 52.7% increase from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

Diamondback is sitting on about 476,000 net acres in the Delaware and Midland regions, with more than 8,000 drilling locations and production of more than 450,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Overall, the wells drilled by the company have extremely low oil price breakeven costs and need the commodity to be at just $40 a barrel to be profitable.

In particular, Diamondback’s $26 billion Endeavor Energy acquisition significantly strengthens its Permian Basin position. The deal provides access to high-quality acreage with lower production costs.

Following the deal, Diamondback Energy is expected to have benefited from higher production during the fourth quarter. The company continues to churn out impressive volumes from its wide inventory of drill-ready locations in the Permian Basin — America's hottest and lowest-cost shale region. Consequently, our expectation for FANG’s average fourth-quarter volume is pegged at 845,967.5 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), up 82.9% from the year-ago quarter’s level of 462,565 BOE/d.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Diamondback Energy this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

FANG has an Earnings ESP of +0.02% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Diamondback Energy is not the only company looking up this earnings cycle. Here are some other energy firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Coterra Energy (CTRA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 24.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The 2025 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coterra Energy indicates 107.4% year-over-year earnings per share growth. Valued at around $20.5 billion, CTRA has gone up 9.6% in a year.

Delek US Holdings (DK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.46% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 25.

Delek US Holdings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed on the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 15.8%, on average. Valued at around $1.1 billion, DK has lost 36.3% in a year.

Range Resources Corporation (RRC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.17% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 25.

Range Resources beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 28.8%, on average. Valued at around $9.4 billion, RRC has gained 21.3% in a year.

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