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The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Soars to 52-Week High, Time to Cash Out?
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Shares of Progressive (PGR - Free Report) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 12.7% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $270.79 in the previous session. Progressive has gained 12.5% since the start of the year compared to the 6.4% move for the Zacks Finance sector and the 5.5% return for the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on January 29, 2025, Progressive reported EPS of $4.08 versus consensus estimate of $3.43.
For the current fiscal year, Progressive is expected to post earnings of $14.51 per share on $87.39 billion in revenues. This represents a 3.27% change in EPS on a 16.36% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $15.38 per share on $96.38 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 6.05% and 10.28%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
Progressive may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Progressive has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and D, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 18.6X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is a premium to the peer industry average of 11X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 39.8X versus its peer group's average of 11.5X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 0.68. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Progressive currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Progressive meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though Progressive shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.
How Does PGR Stack Up to the Competition?
Shares of PGR have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR - Free Report) . PLMR has a Zacks Rank of # 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value Score of F, a Growth Score of B, and a Momentum Score of A.
Earnings were strong last quarter. Palomar Holdings, Inc. beat our consensus estimate by 22.58%, and for the current fiscal year, PLMR is expected to post earnings of $6.54 per share on revenue of $733.9 million.
Shares of Palomar Holdings, Inc. have gained 13.9% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 18.79X and a P/CF of 35.91X.
The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is in the top 26% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for PGR and PLMR, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.
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The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Soars to 52-Week High, Time to Cash Out?
Shares of Progressive (PGR - Free Report) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 12.7% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $270.79 in the previous session. Progressive has gained 12.5% since the start of the year compared to the 6.4% move for the Zacks Finance sector and the 5.5% return for the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on January 29, 2025, Progressive reported EPS of $4.08 versus consensus estimate of $3.43.
For the current fiscal year, Progressive is expected to post earnings of $14.51 per share on $87.39 billion in revenues. This represents a 3.27% change in EPS on a 16.36% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $15.38 per share on $96.38 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 6.05% and 10.28%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
Progressive may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Progressive has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and D, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 18.6X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is a premium to the peer industry average of 11X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 39.8X versus its peer group's average of 11.5X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 0.68. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Progressive currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Progressive meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though Progressive shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.
How Does PGR Stack Up to the Competition?
Shares of PGR have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR - Free Report) . PLMR has a Zacks Rank of # 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value Score of F, a Growth Score of B, and a Momentum Score of A.
Earnings were strong last quarter. Palomar Holdings, Inc. beat our consensus estimate by 22.58%, and for the current fiscal year, PLMR is expected to post earnings of $6.54 per share on revenue of $733.9 million.
Shares of Palomar Holdings, Inc. have gained 13.9% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 18.79X and a P/CF of 35.91X.
The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is in the top 26% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for PGR and PLMR, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.