A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO Quick QuoteAPO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 15.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Apollo Global Management due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Apollo Global Q4 Earnings Beat as AUM Rises, Revenues Decline Y/Y

Apollo Global Management, LLC reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted net income (ANI) per share of $1.91, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89. However, the reported figure compared unfavorably with ANI of $2.22 per share reported in the year-ago period.

For 2024, the adjusted ANI per share was $7.39, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.09. This compares favorably with $6.58 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Results were primarily aided by a rise in assets under management balances, along with a decline in expenses. However, lower revenues acted as a headwind during the quarter.

GAAP net income attributable to Apollo Global was $2.73 billion, which jumped 86.9% from the prior-year quarter.

For 2024, GAAP net income attributable to Apollo Global was $4.48 billion, which declined 10.4% year over year.

APO’s Quarterly Revenues & Expenses Decline

Total revenues were $795 million, down 16.8% year over year. Also, it missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $940.9 million. 

Full-year revenues were $3.7 billion, which increased 15.4% year over year. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.64 billion. 

Total expenses for combined segments decreased 20.7% year over year to $138 million in the reported quarter.

APO’s AUM Balance Rises

Fee-earnings AUM increased 15.4% on a year-over-year basis to $569 billion. 

As of Dec. 31, 2024, total AUM was $751 billion, up 15.3% on a year-over-year basis. Total AUM benefited from $81 billion of inflows from Asset Management and $71 billion of gross inflows from Retirement Services, partially offset by $59 billion of outflows driven by normal course activity at Athene and $23 billion of realization activity.

APO’s Capital and Liquidity Position Weak

As of Dec. 31, 2024, Apollo Global had $2.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents and $4.08 billion of debt.

Apollo’s Capital Distribution Update

Apollo Global declared a quarterly cash distribution of 46 cents per share, along with the earnings release. This distribution will be paid on Feb. 28, 2024, to shareholders of record at the close of business on Feb. 18.

Outlook

2025

In 2025, Apollo expects fee-related earnings growth to approximate 15% to 20%.

2029

Apollo expects fee-related earnings to witness 20% average annual growth by 2029, while spread-related earnings are projected to witness 10% average annual growth by 2029.

Management projects $15 in ANI per share for 2029.

By 2029, Apollo expects to grow its total AUM to $1.5 trillion by scaling its private equity business.

Equity AUM is expected to reach $270 billion by 2029.

The company expects to expand its Global Wealth Management business to more than $150 billion by 2029.

Apollo anticipates generating $21 billion in capital by 2029.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Apollo Global Management has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Apollo Global Management has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.