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This Global Week Ahead ahead is crammed with central bank decisions — first and foremost: the U.S. Federal Reserve.
But much of the action that whiplashed markets at breakneck speed happened on the political stage.
There's little sense that this will change.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, rank-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Is This a “New World Order”?
World markets — and policymakers, corporates and consumers — have been left reeling as a new world order brings upheaval.
Donald Trump's ditching of decades of U.S. foreign policy positions has shocked allies; a tariff policy targeting friends and foes alike could leave a lasting impact on trade.
Some fear a "tri-partite" carve up of the world between the Washington, Moscow and Beijing is next.
Germany's likely next leader Friedrich Merz reckons it's "five minutes to midnight" for Europe, warning a hostile Russia and unreliable U.S. could leave Europe exposed.
Its parliament votes on Tuesday on a fiscal bonanza partly to increase defense spending.
Meanwhile, Trump's push to get a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire over the line is intensifying.
JPMorgan's chief economist warns lasting damage to the U.S's standing as an investment destination is at risk — if Trump undermines trust in governance.
Watch how that Wall Street selloff unfolds.
(2) On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve Concludes Its 2-Day Meeting
Bets have been rising with growing concerns about the outlook for economic growth exacerbated by uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff war.
The case for easing got a little stronger thanks to the latest tame Consumer Price Index.
But the Fed is also juggling the potential impact on inflation from new import tariffs, causing widespread uncertainty among businesses and consumers.
(3) After the Fed Meeting, Plenty of Other Central Bank Decisions
In case you didn't have enough central bank excitement, the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Sweden's Riksbank are also all up.
Markets expect the Riksbank to hold rates steady on Thursday — notable, as it will likely mark the end of the easing cycle in Sweden, which has been among the most aggressive of developed-market central banks.
The BoE is set to hold as well, but that's probably a breather before more easing later in the year, with much focus on the vote split between hawks and doves.
It's a different story in dovish Switzerland. The SNB — already having the lowest rates in the G10 — is expected to cut its benchmark rate to just 0.25%, potentially fueling more questions about whether policy makers would go back into negative territory, but that's not traders' current expectation.
(4) The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Ready to Hike Policy Rate
Meanwhile, conditions are falling into place for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again… just maybe not quite yet.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda set the tone with hawkish comments in parliament on Thursday, predicting a steady rise in wages will transform into increased consumer spending.
Japan's heavyweight unions look set to get average pay increases of about 6% again in this year's spring negotiations, one just struck a deal for an average rise of just over 5%.
Sources say a hike could be under serious discussion as soon as the April/May gathering, though the majority of economists see July as most likely.
Meanwhile in the background is an intractable rise in super-long JGB yields over the past week to the highest since 2006.
(5) Fighting Inflation Remains the Focus -- for Emerging Market Central Banks
Fighting inflation remains the name of the game for almost all emerging central banks, with a number of meetings ahead.
On a tightening push after front-running the Fed and other developed peers in recent years, Brazil is all but certain to deliver another 100 bps hike on Wednesday, which could take rates to a more than eight-year high of 14.25%.
South Africa's policy makers, deciding on rates on Thursday, face a challenging mix of U.S. tensions and domestic political disputes that have stymied efforts to get the country's budget over the line.
Most economists expect the SARB to hold, though the direction of travel will be for lower rates.
Meanwhile Turkey's central bank governor Fatih Karaha has pledged to do “whatever needed”; to reach its year-end inflation target of 24% including maintaining a "tight" policy stance, ahead of the bank's meeting on Thursday.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked three large-cap stocks, experiencing major share price momentum runs of late.
(1) JD.com (JD - Free Report) : This is a $41 a share stock with a market cap of $63.7B. It is a major player in Mainland China, in the Internet Commerce space. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JD.com, Inc. operates as an online direct sales company in China.
The company, through its website www.jd.com and mobile applications offers a selection of authentic products.
It offers computers; mobile handsets and other digital products, home appliances; automobile accessories; clothing and shoes; luxury goods including handbags, watches and jewelry, furniture and household products; cosmetics and other personal care items; food and nutritional supplements ; books, e-books, music, movies and other media products; mother and childcare products; toys, sports and fitness equipment; and virtual goods.
JD.com, Inc. is based in Beijing, China.
(2) Coinbase (COIN - Free Report) : This is a $177 a share stock with a market cap of $48.7B. It is found in the Financial – Miscellaneous industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Value score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Founded in 2012, Coinbase, Inc. is an American publicly traded company that operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform.
It is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States in terms of trading volume. In April 2014, Coinbase, Inc. became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Coinbase Global, Inc. in connection with a corporate reorganization.
Coinbase offers consumers its primary financial account for the crypto economy, institutions a full-service prime brokerage platform with access to deep pools of liquidity across the crypto marketplace, and develops a suite of products granting access to its ecosystem.
Coinbase offers a suite of products and services that are designed to meet the distinct needs of three customer groups: consumers, institutions and developers. Their product offerings primarily include trading products that generate transaction revenues as well as a variety of ecosystem products, many of which generate subscription and services revenues.
Trading Products: Trading is the primary source of the transaction revenues, and is driven by consumer and institutional customers. It comprises Consumer Trading, Coinbase Prime and Markets.
Ecosystem Products: Coinbase offers a suite of products and other services that are key parts of the cry pto ecosystem. They are as follows Stablecoins: Staking, Custody, Coinbase One, Financing, Coinbase Wallet, Easier Onchain Access and Developer Suite.
Coinbase provides a trusted platform that serves as a compliant gateway to the on-chain economy and enables customers to engage in a wide variety of activities, including discovering, trading, staking, storing, spending, earning and using their crypto assets in both proprietary and third-party product experiences enabled by access to decentralized applications.
Coinbase is remote-first and accordingly, does not maintain a headquarters.
(3) Robinhood (HOOD - Free Report) : This is a $36 a share stock with a market cap of $34.4B. It is found in the Financial – Investment Bank industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Value score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Menlo Park, CA, Robinhood Markets Inc. is a financial services company that offers trading services in crypto, stocks, options and ETFs, cash management, margin and securities lending, and Robinhood Gold. The company aims to democratize finance through its commission-free trading model, which was launched in 2013, with no account minimums.
The company serves in the United States, U.K., and selected European Union (EU) jurisdictions through its apps and subsidiaries.
The company's main subsidiaries include Robinhood Financial LLC. (introducing broker-dealer), Robinhood Securities, LLC (clearing broker-dealer), Robinhood Crypto, LLC (allows crypto dealings and is responsible for custody of users’ cryptocurrencies), Robinhood Credit, Inc. (offers credit cards) and Robinhood Money, LLC (offers spending card and spending account).
The company went public in July 2021 with an initial public offering of 52.4 million shares, raising roughly $2 billion.
Since then, it has expanded its services and user base through the introduction of new features and offerings and international expansion.
In July 2024, Robinhood acquired Pluto Capital Inc. to enhance its wealth management business
In January 2024, the company acquired MNA Holdco LLC & its subsidiary Marex North America LLC and its licenses
In 2023, the company acquired Chartr Ltd and X1 Inc. (renamed Robinhood Credit)
In 2021, Robinhood took over A Say Inc. and its subsidiaries
Further, the company launched Robinhood Wallet in 2023, its first international offering to global clients
In 2023, it launched brokerage services in the United Kingdom on a rolling basis and the Robinhood Crypto App for all eligible customers in selected jurisdictions in the EU
As of Sept. 30, 2024, Robinhood had 24.8 million funded customers, $194.6 billion in total assets under custody (AUC), 4.5 million in daily average revenue trades (DARTs) and $5.6 billion in net deposits.
Key Global Macro
The FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, out on Wednesday, are the main data event this week.
On Monday, Mainland China’s Retail Sales for FEB come out. The consensus is for +4% y/y growth, rising from a prior reading of +3.7% y/y.
New Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data for Mainland China comes out too. The prior reading there is -13.4% y/y.
U.S. Retail Sales for FEB comes out too. I see a prior +4.2% y/y reading. Ex-autos retail sales were down -0.45 m/m in JAN. It is supposed to rebound +0.5% m/m in FEB.
On Tuesday, U.S. Building Permits for FEB come out. The prior JAN reading was 1.473M. Housing Starts come out too. The prior JAN reading there was 1.366M.
On Wednesday, the Eurozone’s Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) comes out for FEB. The consensus is for +2.6 5y/y, in line with the prior JAN reading of +2.6% y/y.
The FOMC should keep its monetary policy rate at 4.33%. We do get new Economic Projections, which are a key input here. There will be a Powell presser too.
On Thursday, a 2-day E.U. leader’s summit starts.
There is a PBoC policy rate decision made for Mainland China. 3.1% is the current level.
The Bank of England (BoE) should leave their policy rate at 4.5%, much like the FOMC.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims come out. The prior reading was still low at 220K. These get more intense scrutiny now, with Federal DOGE cuts in play.
“Tariffs are starting to become a material headwind to the overall corporate earnings picture, raising doubts about current market expectations for the coming periods.”
“This follows the overall positive trends that emerged out of the Q4 earnings season, with the growth pace showing a notable acceleration from the trend line of recent quarters.”
“The way tariffs weigh on earnings outlook is either through pressuring margins or revenues or both."
When a company, say Best Buy (BBY - Free Report) , is faced with higher tariffs on its merchandize, it will either have to absorb all of the incremental cost on its own, share it with its foreign supplier, or pass all or part of the tariff effect to its customers
All of these options are problematic for Best Buy’s earnings outlook, with the in-house absorption option causing margin suppression and the pass-through option potentially resulting in a lost sale
Best Buy is a good example of understanding the impact of tariffs, as the bulk of its merchandize is sourced from abroad, with Mexico and China as notable countries of origin
“Other retailers like Target (TGT - Free Report) and Walmart (WMT - Free Report) will also have such exposure, but they have a relatively smaller proportion of their merchandize subject to higher tariffs and they also likely have greater flexibility in where they can source their merchandize from.”
“Estimates from Goldman Sachs suggest that an incremental 5% higher tariff, outside of Canada and Mexico, will have a negative earnings impact in the 1% to 2% range and a comparable incremental tariff on these two neighboring markets will cause an additional negative earnings impact in that same range.”
“Keep in mind, however: none of this is carved in stone at this stage.”
“We have yet to see the final shape of the new tariff regime and for how long they will remain in place.”
“The associated uncertainty with all of this tariff talk is also problematic.”
“It has started to weigh on consumer and business confidence.”
That’s it for me.
Have an excellent trading week!
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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Is This a "New World Order"? Global Week Ahead
This Global Week Ahead ahead is crammed with central bank decisions — first and foremost: the U.S. Federal Reserve.
But much of the action that whiplashed markets at breakneck speed happened on the political stage.
There's little sense that this will change.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, rank-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Is This a “New World Order”?
World markets — and policymakers, corporates and consumers — have been left reeling as a new world order brings upheaval.
Donald Trump's ditching of decades of U.S. foreign policy positions has shocked allies; a tariff policy targeting friends and foes alike could leave a lasting impact on trade.
Some fear a "tri-partite" carve up of the world between the Washington, Moscow and Beijing is next.
Germany's likely next leader Friedrich Merz reckons it's "five minutes to midnight" for Europe, warning a hostile Russia and unreliable U.S. could leave Europe exposed.
Its parliament votes on Tuesday on a fiscal bonanza partly to increase defense spending.
Meanwhile, Trump's push to get a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire over the line is intensifying.
JPMorgan's chief economist warns lasting damage to the U.S's standing as an investment destination is at risk — if Trump undermines trust in governance.
Watch how that Wall Street selloff unfolds.
(2) On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve Concludes Its 2-Day Meeting
Bets have been rising with growing concerns about the outlook for economic growth exacerbated by uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff war.
The case for easing got a little stronger thanks to the latest tame Consumer Price Index.
But the Fed is also juggling the potential impact on inflation from new import tariffs, causing widespread uncertainty among businesses and consumers.
(3) After the Fed Meeting, Plenty of Other Central Bank Decisions
In case you didn't have enough central bank excitement, the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Sweden's Riksbank are also all up.
Markets expect the Riksbank to hold rates steady on Thursday — notable, as it will likely mark the end of the easing cycle in Sweden, which has been among the most aggressive of developed-market central banks.
The BoE is set to hold as well, but that's probably a breather before more easing later in the year, with much focus on the vote split between hawks and doves.
It's a different story in dovish Switzerland. The SNB — already having the lowest rates in the G10 — is expected to cut its benchmark rate to just 0.25%, potentially fueling more questions about whether policy makers would go back into negative territory, but that's not traders' current expectation.
(4) The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Ready to Hike Policy Rate
Meanwhile, conditions are falling into place for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again… just maybe not quite yet.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda set the tone with hawkish comments in parliament on Thursday, predicting a steady rise in wages will transform into increased consumer spending.
Japan's heavyweight unions look set to get average pay increases of about 6% again in this year's spring negotiations, one just struck a deal for an average rise of just over 5%.
Sources say a hike could be under serious discussion as soon as the April/May gathering, though the majority of economists see July as most likely.
Meanwhile in the background is an intractable rise in super-long JGB yields over the past week to the highest since 2006.
(5) Fighting Inflation Remains the Focus -- for Emerging Market Central Banks
Fighting inflation remains the name of the game for almost all emerging central banks, with a number of meetings ahead.
On a tightening push after front-running the Fed and other developed peers in recent years, Brazil is all but certain to deliver another 100 bps hike on Wednesday, which could take rates to a more than eight-year high of 14.25%.
South Africa's policy makers, deciding on rates on Thursday, face a challenging mix of U.S. tensions and domestic political disputes that have stymied efforts to get the country's budget over the line.
Most economists expect the SARB to hold, though the direction of travel will be for lower rates.
Meanwhile Turkey's central bank governor Fatih Karaha has pledged to do “whatever needed”; to reach its year-end inflation target of 24% including maintaining a "tight" policy stance, ahead of the bank's meeting on Thursday.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked three large-cap stocks, experiencing major share price momentum runs of late.
(1) JD.com (JD - Free Report) : This is a $41 a share stock with a market cap of $63.7B. It is a major player in Mainland China, in the Internet Commerce space. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JD.com, Inc. operates as an online direct sales company in China.
The company, through its website www.jd.com and mobile applications offers a selection of authentic products.
It offers computers; mobile handsets and other digital products, home appliances; automobile accessories; clothing and shoes; luxury goods including handbags, watches and jewelry, furniture and household products; cosmetics and other personal care items; food and nutritional supplements ; books, e-books, music, movies and other media products; mother and childcare products; toys, sports and fitness equipment; and virtual goods.
JD.com, Inc. is based in Beijing, China.
(2) Coinbase (COIN - Free Report) : This is a $177 a share stock with a market cap of $48.7B. It is found in the Financial – Miscellaneous industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Value score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Founded in 2012, Coinbase, Inc. is an American publicly traded company that operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform.
It is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States in terms of trading volume. In April 2014, Coinbase, Inc. became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Coinbase Global, Inc. in connection with a corporate reorganization.
Coinbase offers consumers its primary financial account for the crypto economy, institutions a full-service prime brokerage platform with access to deep pools of liquidity across the crypto marketplace, and develops a suite of products granting access to its ecosystem.
Coinbase offers a suite of products and services that are designed to meet the distinct needs of three customer groups: consumers, institutions and developers. Their product offerings primarily include trading products that generate transaction revenues as well as a variety of ecosystem products, many of which generate subscription and services revenues.
Coinbase provides a trusted platform that serves as a compliant gateway to the on-chain economy and enables customers to engage in a wide variety of activities, including discovering, trading, staking, storing, spending, earning and using their crypto assets in both proprietary and third-party product experiences enabled by access to decentralized applications.
Coinbase is remote-first and accordingly, does not maintain a headquarters.
(3) Robinhood (HOOD - Free Report) : This is a $36 a share stock with a market cap of $34.4B. It is found in the Financial – Investment Bank industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Value score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Menlo Park, CA, Robinhood Markets Inc. is a financial services company that offers trading services in crypto, stocks, options and ETFs, cash management, margin and securities lending, and Robinhood Gold. The company aims to democratize finance through its commission-free trading model, which was launched in 2013, with no account minimums.
The company serves in the United States, U.K., and selected European Union (EU) jurisdictions through its apps and subsidiaries.
The company's main subsidiaries include Robinhood Financial LLC. (introducing broker-dealer), Robinhood Securities, LLC (clearing broker-dealer), Robinhood Crypto, LLC (allows crypto dealings and is responsible for custody of users’ cryptocurrencies), Robinhood Credit, Inc. (offers credit cards) and Robinhood Money, LLC (offers spending card and spending account).
The company went public in July 2021 with an initial public offering of 52.4 million shares, raising roughly $2 billion.
Since then, it has expanded its services and user base through the introduction of new features and offerings and international expansion.
As of Sept. 30, 2024, Robinhood had 24.8 million funded customers, $194.6 billion in total assets under custody (AUC), 4.5 million in daily average revenue trades (DARTs) and $5.6 billion in net deposits.
Key Global Macro
The FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, out on Wednesday, are the main data event this week.
On Monday, Mainland China’s Retail Sales for FEB come out. The consensus is for +4% y/y growth, rising from a prior reading of +3.7% y/y.
New Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data for Mainland China comes out too. The prior reading there is -13.4% y/y.
U.S. Retail Sales for FEB comes out too. I see a prior +4.2% y/y reading. Ex-autos retail sales were down -0.45 m/m in JAN. It is supposed to rebound +0.5% m/m in FEB.
On Tuesday, U.S. Building Permits for FEB come out. The prior JAN reading was 1.473M. Housing Starts come out too. The prior JAN reading there was 1.366M.
On Wednesday, the Eurozone’s Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) comes out for FEB. The consensus is for +2.6 5y/y, in line with the prior JAN reading of +2.6% y/y.
The FOMC should keep its monetary policy rate at 4.33%. We do get new Economic Projections, which are a key input here. There will be a Powell presser too.
On Thursday, a 2-day E.U. leader’s summit starts.
There is a PBoC policy rate decision made for Mainland China. 3.1% is the current level.
The Bank of England (BoE) should leave their policy rate at 4.5%, much like the FOMC.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims come out. The prior reading was still low at 220K. These get more intense scrutiny now, with Federal DOGE cuts in play.
On Friday, the NY Fed’s Williams speaks.
Conclusion
On Thursday, March 13th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian had this to say, about The Earnings Impact of the New Tariff Regime.
“Tariffs are starting to become a material headwind to the overall corporate earnings picture, raising doubts about current market expectations for the coming periods.”
“This follows the overall positive trends that emerged out of the Q4 earnings season, with the growth pace showing a notable acceleration from the trend line of recent quarters.”
“The way tariffs weigh on earnings outlook is either through pressuring margins or revenues or both."
“Other retailers like Target (TGT - Free Report) and Walmart (WMT - Free Report) will also have such exposure, but they have a relatively smaller proportion of their merchandize subject to higher tariffs and they also likely have greater flexibility in where they can source their merchandize from.”
“Estimates from Goldman Sachs suggest that an incremental 5% higher tariff, outside of Canada and Mexico, will have a negative earnings impact in the 1% to 2% range and a comparable incremental tariff on these two neighboring markets will cause an additional negative earnings impact in that same range.”
“Keep in mind, however: none of this is carved in stone at this stage.”
“We have yet to see the final shape of the new tariff regime and for how long they will remain in place.”
“The associated uncertainty with all of this tariff talk is also problematic.”
“It has started to weigh on consumer and business confidence.”
That’s it for me.
Have an excellent trading week!
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist