What to expect in the Global Week Ahead?

The first three months of 2025 promised to be bumpy.

But few expected the world to be on the verge of a full-on trade war, and for investors to be fleeing Wall Street quite so fast, after U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House.

Meanwhile:

• Investors in emerging markets have been rattled by a spate of domestic crises
• U.K. markets are facing a domestic budget reckoning of their own
• As the impact of Trump's tariffs becomes apparent in global economic data

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) TIARA – There Is A Real Alternative to U.S. Stocks

U.S. equities are bleeding money at one of the fastest weekly rates on record, and the cash is finding a home in previously neglected markets. 

Europe's STOXX 600 is set for a gain of +9.3% in the first quarter, against the S&P's -4.5% loss, its strongest performance against the U.S. benchmark in the first 12 weeks of the year since 2015.

Defense stocks have led the charge higher as European leaders have sought ways to fund spending on security, with U.S. support no longer seeming to be a given. 

Chinese tech stocks have shot up, with a regional index over 30% higher, while a basket of Wall Street's Big Tech stocks is down 15%.

World stocks minus the United States are heading for their best first-quarter performance since 2019.

Move over, TINA (“There Is No Alternative”); investors are considering TIARA: “There Is A Real Alternative” to U.S. stocks.
 

(2) On Friday, the U.S. Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure, PCE, Gets an Update

Investors wary of signs of slowing growth and tariff uncertainty get a raft of fresh U.S. data in the coming week, including a key inflation gauge.

February's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a closely watched measure of inflation, is due on March 28. 

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lifted its expectation for PCE, projecting it would end the year at +2.7%, up from a previous forecast of +2.5% — above its +2% target for annual inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the U.S. central bank will wait for more clarity on Trump administration policies as it assesses when to resume rate cuts.

Measures of consumer confidence and consumer sentiment will also be in the spotlight after U.S. Retail Sales rebounded marginally in February.
 

(3) Sell-offs in Turkey, Indonesia and Colombia

Selloffs in Turkey, Indonesia and Colombia in recent days have focused investors' minds on slow-burning issues plaguing some developing economies.

A return to orthodox monetary policy over the past two years had seen investors warm to Turkey again. 

But authorities detaining Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, caused a lira rout and sent stocks and bonds sharply lower, prompting the central bank to raise overnight lending rates.

Worries over Indonesia's fiscal strategy and growth outlook roiled the rupiah and stocks, prompting central bank intervention. 

Also, Colombia's finance minister resigned amid clashes over budget cuts, hours after lawmakers rejected a labor reform by leftist President Gustavo Petro, who has already replaced 12 of his 19 ministers.
 

(4) The U.K. Government Has Budget Troubles

U.K. investors are about to discover whether weak growth and unexpectedly high borrowing have blown the Labor government's budget goals far enough off course for markets to call for a return to austerity measures.

Alongside finance minister Rachel Reeves' March 26th Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to reduce forecasts that, back in October, assumed the government would just meet its self-imposed spending rules.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that even a minor OBR downgrade would force Reeves to choose between tax increases, spending cuts or months of "damaging speculation" about what she will do in the Autumn budget.

Long-term U.K. debt costs set by the gilt markets are about 15 basis points (bps) below January's multi-decade highs after Labor's welfare cut pledges, but bond investors are on high alert for a rule breach the government cannot fix.
 

(5) Australia and Japan Offer Up Fresh Inflation Reports Too

Australia and Tokyo will get their inflation report cards in the week ahead, as central bankers around the world try to assess the impact of Trump's tariff policies on global price pressures.

Australian consumer prices on Wednesday are expected to have held steady in February. 

This could support the still-cautious Reserve Bank of Australia's patient approach to future rate cuts.

Tokyo inflation is due on Friday, as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to monitor mounting domestic price pressures that could warrant further monetary tightening.

The BOJ kept rates unchanged at its March meeting and offered few hints on the timing of its next rate hike. 

But Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested the central bank could deliver one even before the dust settles on the impact of U.S. tariffs.
 

Three Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

(1) Doximity (DOCS Quick QuoteDOCS - Free Report) : This is a $67 a share stock, with a market cap of $11.7B. It is found in the Medical Services industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Doximity Inc. provides digital platform for medical professionals. 

The company's network members include physicians across all specialties and practice areas. 

It provides its verified clinical membership with digital tools built for medicine, enabling them to collaborate with colleagues, stay up to date with the latest medical news and research, manage their careers and conduct virtual patient visits.

Doximity Inc. is based in San Francisco, CA.

(2) Arc Resources (AETUF Quick QuoteAETUF - Free Report) : This is a $20 a share stock, with a market cap of $11.4B. It is found in the Oil & Gas – Exploration & Production industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

ARC Resources Ltd. is engaged in the exploration, acquisition and development of oil and natural gas properties in western Canada.

ARC Resources Ltd., formerly known as ARC Energy Trust, is based in Calgary, Canada.

(3) Stifel Financial (SF Quick QuoteSF - Free Report) : This is a $98 a share stock, with a market cap of $10.2B. It is found in the Financial – Investment Bank industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stifel Financial Corp. is a holding company for Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Inc.

Key Global Macro

On Monday, Japan’s Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for March comes out. I see a 49 is the prior print.

The Euro Area HCOB manufacturing PMI for March comes out. I see a 47.6 is the prior print.

The S&P U.S. global manufacturing PMI for March comes out. I see a 52.7 is the prior print.

On Tuesday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for JAN comes out. The prior month’s reading was up +4.5% y/y.

The NY Fed’s Williams gives a speech.

On Wednesday, U.S. Durable Goods Orders, ex-defense, come out for FEB. The prior month’s reading was +3.5% y/y.

On Thursday, U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims comes out. The prior week’s reading was 223K.

U.S. Pending Home Sales for FEB comes out. I see a -5.2% prior month reading.

On Friday, U.S. core PCE for FEB comes out. The JAN reading was +2.6% y/y.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes out. I see a prior reading of 57.9.
 

Conclusion

I finish with Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian’s March 19th, 2025 earnings points.

Here are the four key points:

(1)  Zacks expects total Q1-25 earnings for the S&P500 index to be up +6.1% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues.

This would follow the +13.8% earnings growth, on +5.4% revenue growth, in the preceding Q4-24 period.

(2) Q1-25 earnings estimates steadily came down, since the quarter got underway.

The current +6.1% expected growth pace is down from +10.4% at the start of January 2025.

(3) Not only is the magnitude of negative revisions to Q1-25 estimates greater than what we had seen in the comparable periods of other recent periods?

But it is also more broad-based. Note this: 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors are suffering estimate cuts in this time period.

(4) Q1-25 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies are expected to be up +13.9% from the same period last year on +11.9% higher revenues. 

Exclude the ‘Mag 7’ contribution? 

Q1-25 earnings for the rest of the S&P500 index would be up +3.9% (versus +6.1%).

That’s it for me.

Have an excellent trading week!

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist.