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An Uneasy Calm and 2025 Outlooks: Global Week Ahead
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What is going on in this Global Week Ahead?
As U.S. and global financial markets try to move past tariff fears, attention turns to:
What Mainland China will do to its monetary policy rate to buffer its economy
How corporate America reports its Q1 earnings, and sets up 2025 outlooks
How business activity globally, in the latest manufacturing PMIs, holds up
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring 2025 meetings take place in Washington DC, meanwhile — against this backdrop of increased concern about U.S. isolationism.
Next comes Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Mega-cap Q1-25 S&P500 Earnings Reports Arrive. Plus, a Number of Others.
A slew of quarterly earnings in the coming week led by Tesla TSLA and Alphabet GOOGL could shed greater light on how U.S. companies are wrestling with a shifting trade landscape.
Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker and Google’s parent are the first of the "Magnificent Seven" companies to report quarterly results, with the mega-cap growth stocks under pressure.
AI-related spending will be another focus, while Tesla, whose shares have been hit particularly hard in 2025, is also in the spotlight because of Musk's close ties to U.S. President Donald Trump.
United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) last Tuesday warned of downside risks to its financial outlook if the U.S. economy slips into a recession — one sign of the challenges facing companies.
(2) An Uneasy Calm Is Here. Has Tariff-Turmoil Passed Its Peak?
An uneasy calm has descended on investors, hopeful that the worst of the tariff-induced turmoil has passed.
Wall Street shares have recovered from more than one-year lows, corporate bond spreads have come back in (a little) and signs of dysfunction in the $29 trillion Treasury market have eased after a pause to hefty duties.
Trump is considering modifying auto tariffs.
But with confidence shaken, focus is fixed on Washington, especially since aggressive tariffs against China remain and growth fears persist.
The dollar is still heading for its worst month since 2022 and global investors have slashed U.S. stock holdings by a record amount in the past two months, says BofA.
Deutsche Bank reckons a sustained shift in foreign investor allocation could generate "huge negative dollar flows.”
Markets rarely move in a straight line but when a trend is set, it's hard to reverse quickly.
(3) On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Did Not Ease Its Policy Rate.
China sets its benchmark lending rates on Monday at a time when investors are bracing for more monetary easing from Beijing to help offset the headwinds from hefty U.S. tariffs on the world's second-largest economy.
The 1-year LPR was kept at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%.
Some analysts had expected a reduction in one-year and five-year loan prime rates. This would have marked the People's Bank of China's first cut since October of last year.
Tariffs between the U.S. and China now stand at eye-watering levels of more than 100%, and some banks are already cutting their China growth forecasts in a sign of the toll the trade war is expected to take.
Elsewhere in Asia, Bank Indonesia meets on Wednesday and policymakers are straddling a fine line as they weigh a darkening economic outlook against a rupiah that's pinned near record lows.
(4) On Wednesday, a Slew of Manufacturing PMIs from April 2025 Come Out.
Wednesday's April flash PMIs should also give markets a sense of the first hit from Trump's tariff chaos.
Trump has postponed reciprocal tariffs, but a widespread 10% levy on imports remains.
U.S. companies' input prices were already feeling the heat before the latest measures, Canada's services PMI had hit a five-year low.
Expect things to get worse.
The key number to watch is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI input prices index, what S&P Global, which compiles the data, dubs the first port of call for the inflationary impact of tariffs.
It had already risen sharply to signal the fastest rate of input price rises for U.S. companies in almost two years in March.
Traders expect at least three U.S. rate cuts this year, but some banks are skeptical that it can cut at all, given inflation risks.
(5) The IMF/World Bank Spring 2025 Meetings Get Underway.
Finance officials head to Washington for the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings — one of the biggest gatherings of such policy makers in the year.
Jobs growth is a focus at the meeting. But there's no doubt trade tensions and a glum growth outlook will be in focus with finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world also jostling for face time with the Trump administration.
The contours of how Trump sees Washington's future role in and cooperation with Bretton Woods institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank might also become clearer.
Among the big set items is the Fund's global economic outlook to be released on Tuesday.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already flagged that sweeping U.S. tariffs posed a "significant risk,” appealing to Washington and its trading partners to work constructively to reduce tensions.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
(1) ASML Holding (ASML - Free Report) : This is a $640 a share stock, with a market cap of $249.8B, found in the Semiconductor Equipment – Wafer Fabrication industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ASML is a world leader in the manufacture of advanced technology systems for the semiconductor industry.
The company offers an integrated portfolio for manufacturing complex integrated circuits.
ASML designs, develops, integrates, markets and services advanced systems used by customers the major global semiconductor manufacturers to create chips that power a wide array of electronic, communications and information technology products.
(2) HSBC (HSBC - Free Report) : This is a $52.50 a share stock, with a market cap of $185.1B, found in the Zacks Foreign Bank industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Operating through a global network of various offices in nearly 60 countries and regions in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and North and Latin America, it provides a wide range of financial services. Effective Jan. 1 2025, HSBC implemented a new organizational business structure:
The Hong Kong business (constituting 25% of net loans and advances to customers in 2024) comprises Personal Banking and Commercial Banking of HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank.
The U.K. business (29%) comprises U.K. Personal Banking (including first direct and M&S Bank) and U.K. Commercial Banking including HSBC Innovation Bank.
Corporate and Institutional Banking (31%) integrates the Commercial Banking business outside of the U.K. and Hong Kong together with the Global Banking and Markets business, the U.K. non-ring-fenced bank (HSBC Bank plc), Europe, and the Americas.
International Wealth and Premier Banking (15%) comprises Premier banking outside of Hong Kong and the U.K., the Global Private Bank and the wealth manufacturing businesses of Asset Management and Insurance.
Corporate Centre (1%) includes central treasury, U.S. CML run-off, legacy credit, associates and joint venture (JV) and others.
As part of its business simplifying and restructuring effort, HSBC announced winding down of its investment banking activities in the U.K., Europe, and the United States, and divestitures of its French life insurance arm and private banking business in Germany.
Also, the company completed the sale of its businesses in the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Greece, Russia, Argentina and Armenia, as well as the retail banking operations in France and Mauritius. It also announced the planned sale of its business in South Africa. HSBC is listed on the London, Hong Kong, New York, and Bermuda stock exchanges.
(3) Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY - Free Report) : This is a $36 a share stock, with a market cap of $181.3B, found in the Diversified Communication Services industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Deutsche Telekom is Europe's largest communications company and one of the largest communications carriers worldwide.
Through T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom's mobile telephony subsidiary, and through other subsidiaries and investments, Deutsche Telekom serves mobile telephony customers worldwide.
Deutsche Telekom offers its customers a complete range of fixed-line voice telephony products and services.
Key Global Macro
The manufacturing PMI from the U.S., out on Wednesday, should be worth inspecting.
On Monday, hours Before the U.S Markets Opened (BMO), the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy rate decision happened. 3.1% remained the 1-year loan policy rate.
The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings kick off.
On Tuesday, the Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI for April comes out. I see a 52.1 prior March reading.
The Fed’s Kashkari gives a speech.
On Wednesday, the Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI for April comes out. 48.4 was the prior March reading.
The Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI for April comes out. 48.6 was the prior March reading.
The U.S. S&P global Manufacturing PMI for April comes out. 50.2 was the prior March reading.
The Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions comes out.
On Thursday, U.S. weekly Initial Jobless Claims comes out. I see a still low 215K prior week’s reading.
U.S. Existing Home Sales for March come out. I see 4.14M is the consensus, following a 4.26 prior Feb. reading.
On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April comes out. I see a low 50.8 prior reading. 1-year consumer inflation expectations are at a high +6.7% y/y now.
Conclusion
On April 16th, 2025, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian supplied his latest Q1 earnings updates.
Here are the key points:
(1) Total Q1 earnings for the 44 S&P 500 members that have reported results are up +6.9% from the same period last year on +5.8% higher revenues.
72.7% beat EPS estimates and 70.5% beat revenue estimates.
(2) We continue to believe that this Q1 earnings season is less about what companies earned in the first quarter of 2025, and more about sizing up the earnings impact, of the emerging tariff and macroeconomic backdrop.
Guidance is always the most important aspect of any earnings season. But it will be an even more significant part of the Q1 reporting cycle.
(3) Zacks expects Q1 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies to be up +12.5% from the same period last year, on +11.4% higher revenues.
Exclude that ‘Mag 7’ contribution?
Then Q1 earnings for the rest of the S&P500 index would be up +5.2% (versus +6.8% otherwise).
(4) For Q2-25, Zacks expects total S&P500 earnings to be up +8.6% from the same period last year, on +4.1% higher revenues.
Estimates for the Q2 period have started coming down.
This aligns with the negative trend S&P500 Q1 earnings experienced, before the start of the Q1 earnings season.
That’s it for me.
Enjoy a successful week, trading and investing.
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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An Uneasy Calm and 2025 Outlooks: Global Week Ahead
What is going on in this Global Week Ahead?
As U.S. and global financial markets try to move past tariff fears, attention turns to:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring 2025 meetings take place in Washington DC, meanwhile — against this backdrop of increased concern about U.S. isolationism.
Next comes Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Mega-cap Q1-25 S&P500 Earnings Reports Arrive. Plus, a Number of Others.
A slew of quarterly earnings in the coming week led by Tesla TSLA and Alphabet GOOGL could shed greater light on how U.S. companies are wrestling with a shifting trade landscape.
Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker and Google’s parent are the first of the "Magnificent Seven" companies to report quarterly results, with the mega-cap growth stocks under pressure.
AI-related spending will be another focus, while Tesla, whose shares have been hit particularly hard in 2025, is also in the spotlight because of Musk's close ties to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Investors will look for any insight from executives into the fallout from tariffs, with reports slated from major companies including 3M (MMM - Free Report) , Boeing (BA - Free Report) , IBM (IBM - Free Report) , Merck (MRK - Free Report) , Intel (INTC - Free Report) and Procter & Gamble (PG - Free Report) .
United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) last Tuesday warned of downside risks to its financial outlook if the U.S. economy slips into a recession — one sign of the challenges facing companies.
(2) An Uneasy Calm Is Here. Has Tariff-Turmoil Passed Its Peak?
An uneasy calm has descended on investors, hopeful that the worst of the tariff-induced turmoil has passed.
Wall Street shares have recovered from more than one-year lows, corporate bond spreads have come back in (a little) and signs of dysfunction in the $29 trillion Treasury market have eased after a pause to hefty duties.
Trump is considering modifying auto tariffs.
But with confidence shaken, focus is fixed on Washington, especially since aggressive tariffs against China remain and growth fears persist.
The dollar is still heading for its worst month since 2022 and global investors have slashed U.S. stock holdings by a record amount in the past two months, says BofA.
Deutsche Bank reckons a sustained shift in foreign investor allocation could generate "huge negative dollar flows.”
Markets rarely move in a straight line but when a trend is set, it's hard to reverse quickly.
(3) On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Did Not Ease Its Policy Rate.
China sets its benchmark lending rates on Monday at a time when investors are bracing for more monetary easing from Beijing to help offset the headwinds from hefty U.S. tariffs on the world's second-largest economy.
The 1-year LPR was kept at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%.
Some analysts had expected a reduction in one-year and five-year loan prime rates. This would have marked the People's Bank of China's first cut since October of last year.
Tariffs between the U.S. and China now stand at eye-watering levels of more than 100%, and some banks are already cutting their China growth forecasts in a sign of the toll the trade war is expected to take.
Elsewhere in Asia, Bank Indonesia meets on Wednesday and policymakers are straddling a fine line as they weigh a darkening economic outlook against a rupiah that's pinned near record lows.
(4) On Wednesday, a Slew of Manufacturing PMIs from April 2025 Come Out.
Wednesday's April flash PMIs should also give markets a sense of the first hit from Trump's tariff chaos.
Trump has postponed reciprocal tariffs, but a widespread 10% levy on imports remains.
U.S. companies' input prices were already feeling the heat before the latest measures, Canada's services PMI had hit a five-year low.
Expect things to get worse.
The key number to watch is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI input prices index, what S&P Global, which compiles the data, dubs the first port of call for the inflationary impact of tariffs.
It had already risen sharply to signal the fastest rate of input price rises for U.S. companies in almost two years in March.
Traders expect at least three U.S. rate cuts this year, but some banks are skeptical that it can cut at all, given inflation risks.
(5) The IMF/World Bank Spring 2025 Meetings Get Underway.
Finance officials head to Washington for the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings — one of the biggest gatherings of such policy makers in the year.
Jobs growth is a focus at the meeting. But there's no doubt trade tensions and a glum growth outlook will be in focus with finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world also jostling for face time with the Trump administration.
The contours of how Trump sees Washington's future role in and cooperation with Bretton Woods institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank might also become clearer.
Among the big set items is the Fund's global economic outlook to be released on Tuesday.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already flagged that sweeping U.S. tariffs posed a "significant risk,” appealing to Washington and its trading partners to work constructively to reduce tensions.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
(1) ASML Holding (ASML - Free Report) : This is a $640 a share stock, with a market cap of $249.8B, found in the Semiconductor Equipment – Wafer Fabrication industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ASML is a world leader in the manufacture of advanced technology systems for the semiconductor industry.
The company offers an integrated portfolio for manufacturing complex integrated circuits.
ASML designs, develops, integrates, markets and services advanced systems used by customers the major global semiconductor manufacturers to create chips that power a wide array of electronic, communications and information technology products.
(2) HSBC (HSBC - Free Report) : This is a $52.50 a share stock, with a market cap of $185.1B, found in the Zacks Foreign Bank industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Operating through a global network of various offices in nearly 60 countries and regions in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and North and Latin America, it provides a wide range of financial services.
Effective Jan. 1 2025, HSBC implemented a new organizational business structure:
As part of its business simplifying and restructuring effort, HSBC announced winding down of its investment banking activities in the U.K., Europe, and the United States, and divestitures of its French life insurance arm and private banking business in Germany.
Also, the company completed the sale of its businesses in the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Greece, Russia, Argentina and Armenia, as well as the retail banking operations in France and Mauritius. It also announced the planned sale of its business in South Africa.
HSBC is listed on the London, Hong Kong, New York, and Bermuda stock exchanges.
(3) Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY - Free Report) : This is a $36 a share stock, with a market cap of $181.3B, found in the Diversified Communication Services industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Deutsche Telekom is Europe's largest communications company and one of the largest communications carriers worldwide.
Through T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom's mobile telephony subsidiary, and through other subsidiaries and investments, Deutsche Telekom serves mobile telephony customers worldwide.
Deutsche Telekom offers its customers a complete range of fixed-line voice telephony products and services.
Key Global Macro
The manufacturing PMI from the U.S., out on Wednesday, should be worth inspecting.
On Monday, hours Before the U.S Markets Opened (BMO), the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy rate decision happened. 3.1% remained the 1-year loan policy rate.
The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings kick off.
On Tuesday, the Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI for April comes out. I see a 52.1 prior March reading.
The Fed’s Kashkari gives a speech.
On Wednesday, the Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI for April comes out. 48.4 was the prior March reading.
The Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI for April comes out. 48.6 was the prior March reading.
The U.S. S&P global Manufacturing PMI for April comes out. 50.2 was the prior March reading.
The Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions comes out.
On Thursday, U.S. weekly Initial Jobless Claims comes out. I see a still low 215K prior week’s reading.
U.S. Existing Home Sales for March come out. I see 4.14M is the consensus, following a 4.26 prior Feb. reading.
On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April comes out. I see a low 50.8 prior reading. 1-year consumer inflation expectations are at a high +6.7% y/y now.
Conclusion
On April 16th, 2025, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian supplied his latest Q1 earnings updates.
Here are the key points:
(1) Total Q1 earnings for the 44 S&P 500 members that have reported results are up +6.9% from the same period last year on +5.8% higher revenues.
72.7% beat EPS estimates and 70.5% beat revenue estimates.
(2) We continue to believe that this Q1 earnings season is less about what companies earned in the first quarter of 2025, and more about sizing up the earnings impact, of the emerging tariff and macroeconomic backdrop.
Guidance is always the most important aspect of any earnings season. But it will be an even more significant part of the Q1 reporting cycle.
(3) Zacks expects Q1 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies to be up +12.5% from the same period last year, on +11.4% higher revenues.
Exclude that ‘Mag 7’ contribution?
Then Q1 earnings for the rest of the S&P500 index would be up +5.2% (versus +6.8% otherwise).
(4) For Q2-25, Zacks expects total S&P500 earnings to be up +8.6% from the same period last year, on +4.1% higher revenues.
Estimates for the Q2 period have started coming down.
This aligns with the negative trend S&P500 Q1 earnings experienced, before the start of the Q1 earnings season.
That’s it for me.
Enjoy a successful week, trading and investing.
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist