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Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Rocket Lab Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings?

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Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 8, 2025, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $120.7 million, suggesting an improvement of 30.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for the bottom line is pegged at a loss of 10 cents per share, implying a deterioration from the prior-year quarter’s reported loss of 9 cents. The bottom-line estimate has remained unchanged in the past 60 days. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Rocket Lab has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 9.04%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for RKLB this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Rocket Lab has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +33.25% at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Key Factors to Consider

The strong revenue performance across both the company’s business segments is likely to add impetus to its overall first-quarter results amid the effects of higher operating expenses.

RKLB’s Launch Services Unit to Post Solid Sales

Higher revenues generated from growth in the number of launch missions, as well as solid revenue contributions from strong bookings witnessed in the prior quarters must have bolstered the top line of the Launch Services business segment. HASTE missions performed during the quarter, which come at a higher average selling price versus standard electron missions, are also likely to have aided this unit’s revenues in the first quarter.   

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $35.6 million, indicating a solid 8.9% increase from the top line reported a year ago.

RKLB’s Space Systems Unit Also Holds Potential

Solid growth in spacecraft and satellite manufacturing, along with a strong contribution from RKLB’s control subsystem business, is likely to have boosted revenue growth for its Space Systems business segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $85.5 million, indicating 42.4% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

What Impacted RKLB’s Bottom Line?

Solid revenue contribution from both of its segments must have bolstered Rocket Lab’s overall revenues in the first quarter.

Such a solid top-line projection is also likely to have aided RKLB’s first-quarter bottom-line growth. However, higher operating expenses due to a step-up in spending for Neutron program development, continued growth in headcount, higher research and development expenses, along with higher IT-related spending, including a step-up in cybersecurity requirements related to RKLB’s US Government programs, might have put downward pressure on its operating margin. This, in turn, must have adversely impacted its overall earnings.

Price Performance & Valuation

RKLB’s shares have exhibited an upward trend, gaining a notable percentage over the past year. Specifically, the stock soared 466.2% in the timeframe, outperforming the Zacks aerospace-defense industry’s rise of 6%. It has also outpaced the broader Zacks Aerospace sector’s return of 10% as well as the S&P 500’s gain of 9.9%.

A similar stellar performance has been delivered by other industry players, such as Embraer (ERJ - Free Report) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR - Free Report) , whose shares have surged 72.5% and 66.9%, respectively, over the past year.

In terms of valuation, RKLB’s forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) is 15.49X, a premium to its industry’s average of 1.99X. This suggests that investors will be paying a higher price than the company's expected sales growth compared to that of its industry’s P/S ratio.

RKLB’s Price-to-Earnings (Forward 12 Months)

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

However, its industry peers are currently trading at a discount compared to RKLB. While the forward 12-month price/earnings multiple for Embraer is 1.11, the same for Intuitive Machines is 5.31.

Investment Thesis

According to a World Economic Forum report from April 2024, the space economy may reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, driven by the increasing adoption of satellite and rocket-enabled technologies. This outlook strengthens the long-run growth prospects of space stocks like LUNR and RKLB. Notably, RKLB’s Electron launch vehicle ranks as the second most frequently launched orbital rocket by U.S. companies.

However, RKLB faces certain challenges at present, which one should consider before investing in the stock. One such hazard is the high operating expenses that the company incurs due to its consistent investments in developing new products and enhancing the existing ones. Such high operating expenses largely offset the benefits of strong revenue growth, causing RKLB to report quarterly losses.

Moreover, in February 2025, Bleecker Street Research published a report accusing Rocket Lab of misleading investors regarding the development timeline of its Neutron rocket, suggesting potential delays and financial concerns. Later, in a press release, it was announced that a securities class action lawsuit had been filed against Rocket Lab USA, citing that the company had failed to disclose the aforementioned delays to its investors and that the only contract for its Neutron launch vehicle was made at a discount with an unreliable partner. This lawsuit might have affected RKLB’s first-quarter performance.

Further, the company is highly debt-ridden at this moment compared to its peer group (as is evident from the image for its long-term debt-to-capital ratio, available below), as it is investing heftily in designing, manufacturing and commercializing new technologies.  Such high debt burdens might be a cause of concern for its investors.

RKLB’s Long-term Debt-to-Capital

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Should You Buy RKLB Before May 8?

To conclude, investors interested in RKLB should refrain from adding this stock to their portfolio before Thursday, considering its premium valuation as well as higher operating expenses. The company may disappoint with its first-quarter results, considering the year-over-year deterioration in its quarterly earnings estimates as well as an unfavorable Zacks rank.

Moreover, RKLB currently has a VGM Score of F, which is another indicator of the stock’s poor performance.


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