APA Corporation (APA Quick QuoteAPA - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2025 results on May 7. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of 83 cents per share on revenues of $2.2 billion.

Let’s delve into the factors that might influence this upstream operator’s results for the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at APA’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the independent oil and gas explorer missed the consensus mark due to lower commodity prices and higher costs. APA reported adjusted earnings per share of 79 cents, underperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents. However, revenues of $2.5 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by nearly 10% on the back of the contribution from the Callon Petroleum acquisition and higher-than-expected production.

APA beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the last four quarters and missed in the others. This is depicted in the graph below:

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has been revised 2.5% upward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 6.4% improvement year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 16.3% increase from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

APA is set to post strong first-quarter production gains, driven by higher domestic output from its prolific Permian Basin assets. We project average volumes of roughly 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d)—marking a sharp 40% year-over-year increase from 214,050 BOE/d. This growth reflects both robust well performance and the added impact of the Callon Petroleum acquisition completed in April 2024.

Since 2020, APA has reshaped its portfolio with over $5 billion in strategic acquisitions and $2.5 billion in divestitures of non-core assets. These moves have more than doubled its unconventional output in the Permian, enhanced drilling inventory, and cut operating costs. As a result, APA now stands out as a leaner, more profitable operator with increased scale and long-term durability in one of North America’s most cost-advantaged oil regions.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for APA Corporation this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

APA has an Earnings ESP of +4.52% and a Zacks Rank #3.

(See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

Other Stocks to Consider

APA is not the only company looking up this earnings cycle. Here are some other energy firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA Quick QuotePBA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 8.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pembina Pipeline’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 3.2% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $23 billion, Pembina Pipeline has gained 8.2% in a year.

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT Quick QuoteCLMT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.32% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 9.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calumet’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 73.4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $970 million, Calumet has lost 32% in a year.

New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE Quick QuoteNFE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +57.05% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 12.

New Fortress Energy beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. Valued at around $1.7 billion, New Fortress Energy has lost 78.8% in a year.