We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Jobless Claims, Q1 Productivity Hit Multi-Year Levels
Read MoreHide Full Article
Thursday, May 8, 2025
Pre-market futures are up at this hour, off early-morning highs but otherwise seemingly unbothered by economic reports this morning that are less than full flattering. The Dow is currently +300 points, the S&P 500 +50, the Nasdaq +250 and the small-cap Russell 2000 is +25 points. Markets are up strongly over the last month — but that was off a pretty low base.
Weekly Jobless Claims Steady, but Reach 3 1/2-Year Threshold
Initial Jobless Claims this morning came in relatively in-line with expectations — 228K versus 230K estimated — which is -13K from the prior week’s downwardly revised 241K. Aside from one outlier week in early October of last year, we’ve been remarkably consistent for the past year on new jobless claims. This is the sort of metric Fed Chair Jerome Powell might point to as a healthy print for the labor market.
Continuing Claims reached 1.879 million two weeks ago (Continuing Claims are reported a week in arrears from Initial Claims), which is consistent with the ebb-and-flow of longer-term claims over the past six months. But the previous week, which routinely would report above 1.9 million and then revise below the following week, stuck at 1.916 million — the first print above 1.9 million since November 2021.
Is this the first dent in the armor on the employment front? Possibly we’re at the foothills of a higher unemployment reality in the weeks and months to come, but 1.9 million is not in any way a sign that the sky is falling. In fact, only when these levels broach 2+ million longer-term jobless claims over a certain period of time would we consider changing the healthy labor market narrative. Perhaps a fast approach to that 2 million threshold may make investors mindful of this, but we’re not there now.
Q1 Productivity Goes Negative: -0.8%
Quarterly U.S. Productivity numbers are out this morning, with a negative print for the first time since Q2 2022. The headline -0.8% was 10 basis points (bps) lower than expected, and follows Q4 2024’s final +1.5% — which itself was the weakest quarter since Q3 2023. Those first two quarters of 2022 was back when the Fed started raising interest rates from the floor, and was the last period that could reasonably called a recession.
Unit Labor Costs came in hotter than anticipated: +5.7% versus +5.1% expected. This is the highest level we’ve seen since Q3 2020, when we were still deep in pandemic territory. The combination negative Productivity and multi-year highs in Labor Costs are not a recipe for a strengthening economy, but like jobless claims, we’re nowhere near any sort of panic levels.
Q1 Earnings Roundup: SHOP, COP, CROX
E-commerce major Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) reported mixed results in its Q1 earnings release ahead of today’s open. Earnings of 25 cents per share missed the Zacks consensus by a penny (and still a nickel higher than earnings reported in the year-ago quarter), and revenues of $2.36 billion outpaced expectations by +1.32%. Yet shares are down -7% at this hour, even with revenue guidance revised higher for the current quarter. Shares of SHOP were already down -11% year to date. For more on SHOP’s earnings, click here. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.)
Oil & gas supermajor ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) surpassed estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning. Earnings of $2.09 per share slipped past consensus by 3 cents, while $17.1 billion outperformed by +3.37%. The company’s top-line number was also nicely ahead of the $14.48 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Shares are trading up +1.6% on the news, bringing the losses for the stock back to single digits year to date. For more on COP’s earnings, click here.
Shoewear innovator Crocs (CROX - Free Report) put up a strong earnings beat this morning, with $3.00 per share +19.5% above expectations for $2.51 per share. The company has not missed on earnings for five years. Revenues of $937.3 million came in +3% ahead of estimates, though slightly below the year-ago levels. Shares are up +4.7% in today’s pre-market, more than cutting in half its -8% deficit year to date. For more on CROX’s earnings, click here.
Image: Bigstock
Jobless Claims, Q1 Productivity Hit Multi-Year Levels
Thursday, May 8, 2025
Pre-market futures are up at this hour, off early-morning highs but otherwise seemingly unbothered by economic reports this morning that are less than full flattering. The Dow is currently +300 points, the S&P 500 +50, the Nasdaq +250 and the small-cap Russell 2000 is +25 points. Markets are up strongly over the last month — but that was off a pretty low base.
Weekly Jobless Claims Steady, but Reach 3 1/2-Year Threshold
Initial Jobless Claims this morning came in relatively in-line with expectations — 228K versus 230K estimated — which is -13K from the prior week’s downwardly revised 241K. Aside from one outlier week in early October of last year, we’ve been remarkably consistent for the past year on new jobless claims. This is the sort of metric Fed Chair Jerome Powell might point to as a healthy print for the labor market.
Continuing Claims reached 1.879 million two weeks ago (Continuing Claims are reported a week in arrears from Initial Claims), which is consistent with the ebb-and-flow of longer-term claims over the past six months. But the previous week, which routinely would report above 1.9 million and then revise below the following week, stuck at 1.916 million — the first print above 1.9 million since November 2021.
Is this the first dent in the armor on the employment front? Possibly we’re at the foothills of a higher unemployment reality in the weeks and months to come, but 1.9 million is not in any way a sign that the sky is falling. In fact, only when these levels broach 2+ million longer-term jobless claims over a certain period of time would we consider changing the healthy labor market narrative. Perhaps a fast approach to that 2 million threshold may make investors mindful of this, but we’re not there now.
Q1 Productivity Goes Negative: -0.8%
Quarterly U.S. Productivity numbers are out this morning, with a negative print for the first time since Q2 2022. The headline -0.8% was 10 basis points (bps) lower than expected, and follows Q4 2024’s final +1.5% — which itself was the weakest quarter since Q3 2023. Those first two quarters of 2022 was back when the Fed started raising interest rates from the floor, and was the last period that could reasonably called a recession.
Unit Labor Costs came in hotter than anticipated: +5.7% versus +5.1% expected. This is the highest level we’ve seen since Q3 2020, when we were still deep in pandemic territory. The combination negative Productivity and multi-year highs in Labor Costs are not a recipe for a strengthening economy, but like jobless claims, we’re nowhere near any sort of panic levels.
Q1 Earnings Roundup: SHOP, COP, CROX
E-commerce major Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) reported mixed results in its Q1 earnings release ahead of today’s open. Earnings of 25 cents per share missed the Zacks consensus by a penny (and still a nickel higher than earnings reported in the year-ago quarter), and revenues of $2.36 billion outpaced expectations by +1.32%. Yet shares are down -7% at this hour, even with revenue guidance revised higher for the current quarter. Shares of SHOP were already down -11% year to date. For more on SHOP’s earnings, click here. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.)
Oil & gas supermajor ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) surpassed estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning. Earnings of $2.09 per share slipped past consensus by 3 cents, while $17.1 billion outperformed by +3.37%. The company’s top-line number was also nicely ahead of the $14.48 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Shares are trading up +1.6% on the news, bringing the losses for the stock back to single digits year to date. For more on COP’s earnings, click here.
Shoewear innovator Crocs (CROX - Free Report) put up a strong earnings beat this morning, with $3.00 per share +19.5% above expectations for $2.51 per share. The company has not missed on earnings for five years. Revenues of $937.3 million came in +3% ahead of estimates, though slightly below the year-ago levels. Shares are up +4.7% in today’s pre-market, more than cutting in half its -8% deficit year to date. For more on CROX’s earnings, click here.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>