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Markets Slide to Flat on Jobs, Trade, Beige Book, Earnings
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Wednesday, June 4, 2025
Market activity this Hump Day was a little of this, a little of that. Pre-markets were lower on a weaker-than-expected private-sector payrolls report from ADP (ADP - Free Report) , but most major market indexes spent most of the session in the green. This took a downward turn this afternoon, perhaps somewhat on a cooler Beige Book, but likely more a lack of enthusiasm to propel markets higher amid continuing trade uncertainty.
This is, after all, the self-imposed deadline for major deals to be announced with U.S. trading partners. Perhaps they’re all waiting until this evening to spring the news, but currently there aren’t any new trade deals. The Dow closed -0.18% while the S&P 500 was +0.01%. The Nasdaq, still kept somewhat aloft by the continuing AI trade, was +0.32%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped -0.08%.
Beige Book for May Shows Economy Slowing Slightly
The fourth of eight Beige Books this year from the Federal Reserve was released this afternoon for the month of May. Overall, it demonstrated a slight decline from the April 23rd report, with half of the 12 cities (regions) posting slightly negative economic growth: Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Kansas City and San Francisco.
The three cities that saw slight increases in economic activity were Richmond, VA, Atlanta and Chicago. Those flat cities from the prior report included Cleveland, St Louis and Dallas. All 12 districts saw an increase in economic and policy uncertainty, and showed manufacturing slowing as a result. Consumer spending throughout the regions were mixed, generally along economic growth lines.
Final May Services Numbers Go in Opposite Directions
Earlier today, we saw the final print for both S&P Services PMI and ISM Services, both for May. S&P PMI came in higher than the flash headline — +53.7 versus +52.3 — and up strongly from the previous month’s +50.8%. ISM Services dipped just below the 50% threshold to +49.9%, off the +52.1% flash number and the +51.6% reported previously.
While the S&P PMI saw a stable business environment domestically (tempered somewhat by two-straight down months on foreign demand), ISM showed orders and inventories shrinking while prices continuing to rise — now at their highest levels since November 2022. The last sub-50% print on ISM Services was back in June of last year; S&P hasn’t been sub-50 since January of ’23.
Q1 Earnings After the Close: FIVE
Youth-oriented discount retailer Five Below (FIVE - Free Report) outperformed Q1 estimates on both top and bottom lines after today’s close, with earnings of 86 cents per share surpassing the 83 cents in the Zacks consensus on $970.5 million in revenues. This improved over the $967.6 million analysts had been expecting. Comps were good at +7.1%, and Q2 comps guidance is set between +5-7%.
The company has raised the lower end of their earnings guidance for the full year, but is still a few cents beneath our consensus. Also, Five Below announced that its COO will be stepping down for personal reasons, to be replaced by the current CFO, who used to have that job previously. Shares initially dipped on the news but at now back up +1.7% in late-day trading.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Thursday
As we see most Thursdays, Jobless Claims will hit the tape ahead of the opening bell tomorrow. These jobs numbers, finely parsed as they are into weekly sets, follow Tuesday’s unexpected rise in JOLTS job openings for April to 7.4 million and this morning’s lower-than-expected private-sector payrolls from ADP (ADP - Free Report) . (Friday morning brings us the big Employment Situation report from the U.S. government.)
Also tomorrow, we expect to see an update on the April U.S. trade deficit, expected to improve greatly to -$63.3 billion from -$140.5 billion in the prior month. Also, Q1 Productivity is expected to remain steady at -0.8% ahead of Thursday’s opening bell. There will also be mid-day speeches given by Fed Governor Kugler and Philly Fed President Harker tomorrow.
Image: Bigstock
Markets Slide to Flat on Jobs, Trade, Beige Book, Earnings
Wednesday, June 4, 2025
Market activity this Hump Day was a little of this, a little of that. Pre-markets were lower on a weaker-than-expected private-sector payrolls report from ADP (ADP - Free Report) , but most major market indexes spent most of the session in the green. This took a downward turn this afternoon, perhaps somewhat on a cooler Beige Book, but likely more a lack of enthusiasm to propel markets higher amid continuing trade uncertainty.
This is, after all, the self-imposed deadline for major deals to be announced with U.S. trading partners. Perhaps they’re all waiting until this evening to spring the news, but currently there aren’t any new trade deals. The Dow closed -0.18% while the S&P 500 was +0.01%. The Nasdaq, still kept somewhat aloft by the continuing AI trade, was +0.32%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped -0.08%.
Beige Book for May Shows Economy Slowing Slightly
The fourth of eight Beige Books this year from the Federal Reserve was released this afternoon for the month of May. Overall, it demonstrated a slight decline from the April 23rd report, with half of the 12 cities (regions) posting slightly negative economic growth: Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Kansas City and San Francisco.
The three cities that saw slight increases in economic activity were Richmond, VA, Atlanta and Chicago. Those flat cities from the prior report included Cleveland, St Louis and Dallas. All 12 districts saw an increase in economic and policy uncertainty, and showed manufacturing slowing as a result. Consumer spending throughout the regions were mixed, generally along economic growth lines.
Final May Services Numbers Go in Opposite Directions
Earlier today, we saw the final print for both S&P Services PMI and ISM Services, both for May. S&P PMI came in higher than the flash headline — +53.7 versus +52.3 — and up strongly from the previous month’s +50.8%. ISM Services dipped just below the 50% threshold to +49.9%, off the +52.1% flash number and the +51.6% reported previously.
While the S&P PMI saw a stable business environment domestically (tempered somewhat by two-straight down months on foreign demand), ISM showed orders and inventories shrinking while prices continuing to rise — now at their highest levels since November 2022. The last sub-50% print on ISM Services was back in June of last year; S&P hasn’t been sub-50 since January of ’23.
Q1 Earnings After the Close: FIVE
Youth-oriented discount retailer Five Below (FIVE - Free Report) outperformed Q1 estimates on both top and bottom lines after today’s close, with earnings of 86 cents per share surpassing the 83 cents in the Zacks consensus on $970.5 million in revenues. This improved over the $967.6 million analysts had been expecting. Comps were good at +7.1%, and Q2 comps guidance is set between +5-7%.
The company has raised the lower end of their earnings guidance for the full year, but is still a few cents beneath our consensus. Also, Five Below announced that its COO will be stepping down for personal reasons, to be replaced by the current CFO, who used to have that job previously. Shares initially dipped on the news but at now back up +1.7% in late-day trading.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Thursday
As we see most Thursdays, Jobless Claims will hit the tape ahead of the opening bell tomorrow. These jobs numbers, finely parsed as they are into weekly sets, follow Tuesday’s unexpected rise in JOLTS job openings for April to 7.4 million and this morning’s lower-than-expected private-sector payrolls from ADP (ADP - Free Report) . (Friday morning brings us the big Employment Situation report from the U.S. government.)
Also tomorrow, we expect to see an update on the April U.S. trade deficit, expected to improve greatly to -$63.3 billion from -$140.5 billion in the prior month. Also, Q1 Productivity is expected to remain steady at -0.8% ahead of Thursday’s opening bell. There will also be mid-day speeches given by Fed Governor Kugler and Philly Fed President Harker tomorrow.
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