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Pacific Biosciences (PACB) Up 5.5% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.5% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Pacific Biosciences (PACB - Free Report) Q4 Loss Narrower than Estimated

Headquartered in Menlo Park, CA, Pacific Biosciences of California Inc. (PACB - Free Report) , a pioneer in the field of single molecule long resequencing, reported loss of $0.21 per share in the fourth quarter of 2016, $0.02 narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the figure was much wider than the loss of $0.02 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues of $25.7 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $24 million but declined 27.8% on a year-over-year basis.

For the full year, Pacific Biosciences reported revenues of $90.7 million, down 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. Furthermore, the company reported loss of 83 cents per share, wider than the year-ago loss of 42 cents.

RevenueDetails

Product revenues rose 110.2% to almost $20.5 million. Service revenues grew 31.08% from the year-ago quarter to almost $3.8 million.

Instrument revenues surged more than 151.9% year over year to $13.1 million, driven by growing Sequel instrument shipments. For the full year, the company registered instrument revenues of $41 million, up 119% on a year-over-year basis.

Consumable revenues totaled $7.5 million, up 64% on a year-over-year basis. For the full year, consumable revenues increased 26% on a year-over-year basis to $23.6 million.

Of the major fourth-quarter highlights, Pacific Biosciences witnessed order bookings for 30 systems, up from 20 systems booked in the third quarter. Notably, these bookings include a 5-system order from GrandOmics.

Meanwhile, Pacific Biosciences got featured in over 2000 publications in the fourth quarter, courtesy of its smart sequencing platform.

Margin Details

Gross profit was $11.4 million (44% gross margin) as compared with $26.5 million (73% gross margin) in the year-ago quarter.

Research & development (R&D) expenses were $16.3 million, higher than $14.7 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Selling, general & administrative (SG&A) expenses totaled $13 million, marginally higher than $12.8 million in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet

Cash and investments at the end of the fourth quarter was $72 million, compared with $82.3 million as of Dec 31, 2015.

Guidance

Management expects first-quarter revenues to be lower than the fourth quarter due to the decline in contractual revenues. However, revenues in the first quarter revenue are expected to grow significantly on a year-over-year basis.

For the full year, the company forecasts a 15% hike in operating expenses on a year-over-year basis. However, the company projects a wider loss for 2017 on a reported basis.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been two revisions lower for the current quarter. While looking back an additional 30 days, we can see even more downward momentum. There have been two downward revisions in the last two months. In the past month, the consensus estimate has shifted 8.75% downward due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Pacific Biosciences' stock has a poor Growth Score of 'F', however its Momentum is doing a bit better with a 'D'. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'F' on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate investors will probably be better served looking elsewhere.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift.  Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.


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