What can move share markets, in the Global Week Ahead?

• Rising oil prices
• Middle East tensions
• A NATO meeting, and 
• Testimony by the U.S. Federal Reserve chief

All vie for equity market attention, in the days ahead.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) Across Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell Testifies before Senate & House Committees

Markets will look to Fed boss Jerome Powell to elaborate on what his expectation for "meaningful" inflation means for the rate outlook when he testifies before Senate and House committees on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Powell told reporters after the Fed's June meeting that goods price inflation is coming as tariffs work their way to consumers.

Having stressed that a solid expansion continues, Powell could also be asked how a further Middle East escalation impacts inflation.

Thursday's final read on first quarter GDP meanwhile should confirm that the economy shrank.

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May on Friday, will be read through the lens of the Fed's decision to leave rates alone, while predicting two cuts this year.
 

(2) Has Macro Data Held Up? Or is Global Activity Receding? New Data Informs

U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs initially led to order front-loading, supporting global business activity, but that is fading fast with global recession conditions creeping back up.

With little forward guidance from companies, economic indicators are more vital than ever for markets, and a raft of them hit screens in days to come.

Monday brings the first release of June business activity for a host of economies including the euro area, Britain and the United States.

Hopes are for better news from the Eurozone after May's PMI slipped to 50.2 from 50.4 in April, moving closer to the 50 mark that separates a contraction from an expansion.

Particularly concerning was the bloc's dominant services sector contracting for the first time since November.

Meanwhile in the U.K., the May PMI showed the services sector returning to tepid growth.
 

(3) Worries About Israel-Iranian War Actions Multiply

The Israel/Iran war has lit the fuse for a possible oil supply shock for investors. Brent crude has topped $75 for the first time since January.

For now, there are no signs of disruption to output. Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels a day and exports around half that, according to Reuters and LSEG calculations, a fraction of the world's roughly-100 million barrels in daily consumption.

A shortfall in Iranian barrels, while jarring to markets, could be offset by other OPEC countries tapping spare capacity to fill that void.

What markets are more worried about is Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of total daily crude supply passes. Analysts say it's unlikely.

But a lot of things that were considered unlikely six months ago and are now a reality.

Market volatility has room to pick up.

European foreign ministers were set to meet their Iranian counterpart on Friday aiming to create a pathway back to diplomacy over its contested nuclear program despite the U.S. considering joining Israeli strikes against Iran.
 

(4) NATO Meets, Wants Members in Europe to Get to 5% of GDP Defense Targets Sooner

NATO aims to keep Donald Trump happy, hold the alliance together and agree a big new spending target in The Hague.

It's also hoping the Israel-Iran conflict won't overshadow Wednesday’s summit.

Trump lambasted NATO members in his first term and threatened to quit the military alliance if they did not raise defense spending.

Now, NATO boss Mark Rutte wants all allies to commit to Trump’s proposed target of 5% of GDP.

To do that, NATO will interpret defense more broadly.

It would hike its current target of spending 2% of GDP on traditional defense – weapons, troops etc. – to 3.5%.

And members would spend at least 1.5% of GDP on broader measures such as adapting roads, bridges and ports to handle military vehicles and protecting against cyber-attacks.

Only Spain is publicly opposing the new target.

Due to the focus on pleasing Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may have to settle for a seat at the pre-summit dinner rather than the meeting itself.
 

(5) Bank of Japan and Japanese Ministry of Finance Teamwork Shifted the Japanese Bond Market’s Tone

A month ago, Japanese government bond yields surged to record peaks as investors baulked at auctions and the prime minister ill-advisedly compared Japan's fiscal predicament to Greece’s.

Now, things couldn't look more different thanks to some deft team play between the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance.

Just days after the BOJ tweaked its bond taper plans to keep buying more of the super-long debt at the heart of the yield spike, the finance ministry presents a plan to cut issuance of the longest-dated securities.

The BOJ's dovish tone on future rate hikes has also helped keep yields in check this week, although Governor Kazuo Ueda left the door open to policy tightening this year by highlighting the risks from broadening price pressures.

Tokyo CPI for this month and published on June 27th will give fresh hints on how soon the central bank may need to act.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

I picked three #1 large cap stocks with Zacks long-term Value-Growth-Momentum (VGM) scores of A or B.

(1)  Dell Technologies (DELL Quick QuoteDELL - Free Report) : This is a $116 a share stock with a market cap of $79.2B. The stock is found in Zacks Computer-Micro Computer industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Dell Technologies is a leading provider of servers, storage and PCs.

It offers secure, integrated solutions that extend from the edge to the core to the cloud. Dell’s IT solutions support customers both in traditional infrastructure and multi-cloud environments.

Round Rock, TX-based Dell operates in roughly 180 countries. The company reported revenues of $95.6 billion in the fiscal 2025.

Dell reports under two segments, Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) and Client Solutions Group (CSG).

ISG contributed 45.6% to fiscal 2025 revenues, while CSG contributed 50.6%.

(a) ISG offers solutions that support multi-cloud environments, machine learning, AI and data analytics

ISG solutions are built for multi-cloud environments and are optimized to run cloud-native workloads in both public and private clouds, as well as traditional on-premises workloads.

Approximately half of ISG revenues are generated by sales to customers in the Americas.

ISG portfolio includes storage as well as server offerings. Storage portfolio includes traditional as well as next-generation storage solutions, including all-flash arrays, scale-out files, object platforms, hyper-converged infrastructure and software-defined storage.

The storage portfolio includes high-performance rack, blade and tower servers.

ISG also offers networking as well as converged and hyper-converged solutions.

(b) CSG offers branded PCs, including notebooks, desktops, and workstations and branded peripherals, including displays and docking stations, as well as third-party software and peripherals

Approximately 60% of CSG revenues are generated by sales to customers in the Americas.

Dell is a key channel partner for VMware, and it resells VMware’s offerings to its customers. The company recently scrapped the Commercial Framework Agreement with VMware. It also sells solutions from cybersecurity provider Secureworks.

Moreover, Dell Financial Services (DFS) offers and arranges various financing options and services for its customers globally.

(2) BAE Systems (BAESY Quick QuoteBAESY - Free Report) : This is a $105 a share stock with a market cap of $79.2B. The stock is found in Zacks Aerospace-Defense industry. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

BAE Systems is a global company engaged in the development, delivery and support of advanced defense and aerospace systems in the air, on land and at sea.

BAE Systems Inc. is the US subsidiary of BAE Systems plc.

Headquartered in Rockville, Maryland, BAE Systems Inc. consists of three Operating Groups that provide support and service solutions for current and future defense, intelligence, and civilian systems.

• They design, develop and manufacture a wide range of electronic systems and subsystems for both military and commercial applications
• They also design, develop, produce, and provide service support of armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, and intelligent munitions

(3) Henkel AG (HENKY Quick QuoteHENKY - Free Report) : This is an $18 a share stock with a market cap of $29.4B. The stock is found in Zacks Consumer Products-Staples industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Henkel AG ADR's principal activities are divided into four product divisions:

• Henkel technologies-industrial adhesives, contact adhesives and sealant
• Cosmetics/toiletries-hair cosmetics, toiletries, oral and skin care, hair salon products
• Detergents/household cleaners-heavy duty and specialty detergents, fabric softeners, household cleansers, kitchen care products, shoe care products, plant care products
• Adhesives-adhesives, contact adhesives and sealant for consumer and craftsman

Key Global Macro

I would focus on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Monday, the Japanese Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for June gets released. I see a prior 49.4 reading.

The HCOB manufacturing PMI for the Euro Area comes out for June too. I see another prior 49.4 reading.

The S&P U.S. global manufacturing PMI for June comes out. I see a prior 52 reading.

The Fed’s influential Waller gives a speech. The Fed’s Goolsbee and Kugler also speak.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell testifies.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell testifies.

On Thursday, a 2-day E.U. summit begins.

U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for Q1 come out. +3.4% q/q is the consensus.

U.S. weekly Initial Jobless Claims come out. 245K is the current level.

On Friday, the E.U leader’s summits runs all day and concludes.
 

Conclusion

On June 13th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian put out his latest earnings update.

His Key Takeaways:

• Zacks expects Q2 earnings to be up +5.1% y/y, on +3.8% y/y higher revenues
• Earnings estimates for the Q2 period have decreased, in recent months
• The +5.1% earnings growth pace in Q2 reflects a deceleration relative to Q1

Zacks expectation is for Q2 earnings to increase by +5.1% from the same period last year on +3.8% higher revenues.

This will be a material deceleration from the +11.9% earnings growth in Q1, on +3.6% revenue growth.

In the unlikely event — that actual Q2 earnings growth for the S&P500 index turns out to be +5.1%, as currently expected?

This will be the lowest earnings growth pace for the index since the +4.3% growth rate in Q3-23.

I think I can write this, safely.

Tariff headwinds have appeared in the Q2 earnings data.

Have a nice trading day!

Warm regards,
John Blank