Tuesday, June 24, 2025
We have a potentially newsworthy day for the stock market today, although pre-market trading is again shrugging off most of what might bring negative connotations. The blue-chip Dow is +265 points at this hour, +0.62%, while the S&P 500 is up +42 points, +0.70%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq again leads the way, up +213 points, +0.97%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is +18, +0.87%.
Bond yields are roughly where we left them as of yesterday’s close: +4.35% on the 10-year and +3.85% on the 2-year. Oil prices have remained tame since temporarily spiking over the weekend with Middle East tensions. The WTI is currently $65 per barrel and ICE Brent crude is $67. Market resiliency is apparent via all of these various metrics this morning.
Case-Shiller Home Prices Lower than Expected
The well-respected but relatively dusty Case-Shiller Home Price Index is out today, showing an overall +2.7% gains in home prices year over year. We say “dusty” because this read is from April. The 20-city print was well below expectations of +4% growth to +3.4%, and down 70 basis points (bps) from the prior month’s unrevised +4.1%.
New York City once again led the way in price growth, at +7.9%. This was followed by Chicago at +6.0% and Detroit at +5.5%. The lowest in this survey was once again Tampa, -2.2%, which was only one of two cities in this index to post a negative April number (Dallas, at -0.2%, was the other). Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates were in the mid-6% range for most of April; we can expect further headwinds in this metric going forward, when mortgages crept back toward 7%.
Fed Chair Powell on Capitol Hill Today
After regular trading gets underway today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, to speak on the health of the economy and the likelihood that the Fed will resume interest rate cuts at some point during the current calendar year. We don’t expect Powell to deviate from his statements and press conference last week, when the Fed voted unanimously to keep the 4.25-4.50% Fed funds rate steady for the fourth-straight meeting.
Powell returns to the Hill Wednesday to face the Senate Banking Committee, much for the same reasons. His press conference last Wednesday was fairly comprehensive and Powell’s comments were consistent with those he’d made in past months. We don’t expect much change on this front in either of his appearances this week.
Consumer Confidence Expected Higher
The June print on Consumer Confidence comes out after today’s open. Expectations are for this to ramp back up toward levels we’d largely maintained over the past few years, around 110 or so. But after the “Liberation Day” tariffs were enacted in April, we saw a significant slide to 85.7.
Today, analysts are looking for a 99.5 consensus, following last month’s bump up to 98.0. Ultimately, these figures from The Conference Board do carry a certain level of volatility: highs of the past several years reached nearly 140 back in 2018, while the global financial crisis which resulted in the Great Recession back in 2009 sent Consumer Confidence below 30.
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Home Price Increases Cool, Fed Chair on Capitol Hill Today
Tuesday, June 24, 2025
We have a potentially newsworthy day for the stock market today, although pre-market trading is again shrugging off most of what might bring negative connotations. The blue-chip Dow is +265 points at this hour, +0.62%, while the S&P 500 is up +42 points, +0.70%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq again leads the way, up +213 points, +0.97%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is +18, +0.87%.
Bond yields are roughly where we left them as of yesterday’s close: +4.35% on the 10-year and +3.85% on the 2-year. Oil prices have remained tame since temporarily spiking over the weekend with Middle East tensions. The WTI is currently $65 per barrel and ICE Brent crude is $67. Market resiliency is apparent via all of these various metrics this morning.
Case-Shiller Home Prices Lower than Expected
The well-respected but relatively dusty Case-Shiller Home Price Index is out today, showing an overall +2.7% gains in home prices year over year. We say “dusty” because this read is from April. The 20-city print was well below expectations of +4% growth to +3.4%, and down 70 basis points (bps) from the prior month’s unrevised +4.1%.
New York City once again led the way in price growth, at +7.9%. This was followed by Chicago at +6.0% and Detroit at +5.5%. The lowest in this survey was once again Tampa, -2.2%, which was only one of two cities in this index to post a negative April number (Dallas, at -0.2%, was the other). Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates were in the mid-6% range for most of April; we can expect further headwinds in this metric going forward, when mortgages crept back toward 7%.
Fed Chair Powell on Capitol Hill Today
After regular trading gets underway today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, to speak on the health of the economy and the likelihood that the Fed will resume interest rate cuts at some point during the current calendar year. We don’t expect Powell to deviate from his statements and press conference last week, when the Fed voted unanimously to keep the 4.25-4.50% Fed funds rate steady for the fourth-straight meeting.
Powell returns to the Hill Wednesday to face the Senate Banking Committee, much for the same reasons. His press conference last Wednesday was fairly comprehensive and Powell’s comments were consistent with those he’d made in past months. We don’t expect much change on this front in either of his appearances this week.
Consumer Confidence Expected Higher
The June print on Consumer Confidence comes out after today’s open. Expectations are for this to ramp back up toward levels we’d largely maintained over the past few years, around 110 or so. But after the “Liberation Day” tariffs were enacted in April, we saw a significant slide to 85.7.
Today, analysts are looking for a 99.5 consensus, following last month’s bump up to 98.0. Ultimately, these figures from The Conference Board do carry a certain level of volatility: highs of the past several years reached nearly 140 back in 2018, while the global financial crisis which resulted in the Great Recession back in 2009 sent Consumer Confidence below 30.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>