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Target's Core Operating Margin Slides to 3.7%: Tougher Road Ahead?

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Key Takeaways

  • TGT's core operating margin fell 160 bps Y/Y to 3.7%, excluding a $593M one-time litigation settlement.
  • Gross margin narrowed to 28.2% on markdowns and rising digital fulfillment and supply-chain costs.
  • TGT stock is down 8.4% over three months, trailing an industry gain of 7.3% amid declining EPS estimates.

Target Corporation’s (TGT - Free Report) core operating margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 came in at 3.7%, excluding the impact of a one-time litigation settlement related to credit card interchange fees. This figure represents a notable contraction compared to the reported 6.2% operating margin, which included the $593 million pre-tax gains from the settlement. The underlying 3.7% reveals a more challenging picture, marking a 160-basis-point decline from the year-ago period.

Several factors contributed to this squeeze. The gross margin, for instance, contracted to 28.2% from 28.8% in the prior year. This stemmed from increased markdown activity and rising costs tied to digital fulfillment and supply-chain operations. The margin pressure was influenced by higher digital sales penetration and expenses related to the ramp-up of new supply-chain facilities. While Target saw relief from easing inventory shrink, it was not enough to offset the pressure.

Concurrently, the selling, general & administrative (SG&A) expense rate, excluding the litigation gains, would have been higher at 21.7%, reflecting continued investments in pay, benefits and deleveraging from lower sales. This combination of a tighter gross margin and persistent SG&A expenses in the absence of one-time boosts impacted the core operating margin. 

Target hinted that challenges experienced in the first quarter, including sales pressure, potential impacts from tariffs and incremental costs related to inventory adjustments, may extend into the second quarter. However, management also expects to continue benefiting from improvements in inventory shrink and gains in operational productivity. We expect the operating margin to shrink 110 basis points in the second quarter.

TGT’s Margin Versus WMT & DG

Walmart Inc.’s (WMT - Free Report) gross margin expansion appears increasingly supported by structural advantages, yet headwinds loom. Walmart continues leveraging disciplined inventory management and improved e-commerce economics to drive gross margin gains, with the U.S. gross margin up 25 basis points in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Walmart's e-commerce profitability and mix shift toward high-margin advertising and membership are helping offset pressure from tariffs. However, elevated tariffs, especially on Chinese imports, are a concern.

Dollar General Corporation’s (DG - Free Report) first-quarter fiscal 2025 gross margin expanded 78 basis points to 31%, driven by a 61-basis-point improvement in shrink and higher inventory markups. Dollar General’s ability to sustain margin improvement will be tested by tariff-related cost pressures. While mitigation strategies are in place, including vendor negotiations and sourcing diversification, Dollar General may face margin constraints.

Target’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Target stock has declined 8.4% over the past three months against the industry’s growth of 7.3%. 
 

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Target’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.49 reflects a lower valuation compared to the industry’s average of 32.73X. TGT carries a Value Score of A.
 

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target’s current financial-year sales and earnings per share implies a year-over-year decline of 1.9% and 15.2%, respectively. 
 

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Target currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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