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Big Changes in Economic Data, Pre-Markets Hold Gains
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Thursday, June 26, 2025
Pre-market futures are up this morning, though by slimmer margins upon a bevy of economic data hitting the tape. The Nasdaq, nearing all-time highs as of Wednesday’s close (and getting there on the Nasdaq 100) is down 40 points to 74 at this hour. The Dow went from 105 to 90 points and the S&P 500 has remained constant at 15 points.
Weekly Jobless Claims Notably Mixed
While Initial Jobless Claims have come down -9K to 236K from a slightly upwardly revised 245K the prior week — which is good: the lowest print since mid-May, in fact — it’s Continuing Claims that carries the bigger story this morning. Longer-term jobless claims reached 1.974 million two weeks ago (Continuing Claims are reported a week in arrears from new claims), above 1.9 million for the fifth-straight week and the highest level we’ve seen since mid-November of 2021.
Check this graph to see what’s gone on in Continuing Claims over the past year: for the first part of 2025, we were ping-ponging around that 1.9 million level, but now jobless claims on the longer-term side are clearly trying to break out. And, while 1.9 million is merely a psychological touch-point, once Continuing Claims reach 2 million per week, expect a change in the narrative — including from the Fed — on our steady and secure labor market.
Image Source: St Louis Federal Reserve
Pre-PCE Data Comes Down Demonstrably
The second revision of Q1 GDP usually doesn’t waver too much from estimates, but in this case, -0.5% is more than twice as low as the first revision to -0.2% (-0.3% was the original Q1 GDP print). This is the weakest quarter since Q1 2022. We see Consumption cut by more than half from the previous read: from +1.2% last time to +0.5% this morning. The PCE Index and core both tick up 10 basis points (bps) to +3.8% and +3.5%, respectively. The full Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report comes out Friday morning.
Durable Goods, Trade and Inventories Reflect Tariff Culture
The preliminary May headline for Durable Goods Orders blasted off into a new orbit: +16.4% more than doubles the +7% anticipated, led by a huge +234% change in non-defense aircraft. Stripping out airlines, airplanes and transportation, we see a still-strong +0.5% — the highest print since September of last year. Officially, non-defense, ex-aircraft came in at +1.7%, and that’s the largest tally we’ve seen since January.
The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance for May reached -$96.6 billion, sinking deeper from the upwardly revised -$87.0 billion. We’re thankfully off the early 2025 levels that hit record lows in March of -$162 billion, but still pretty deep in the hole. Imports remained fairly steady but Exports fell -5.2% for the month.
Advanced Retail Inventories in May jumped to +0.3% month over month and +3.2% year over year. Advanced Wholesale Inventories, on the other hand, sank -0.3% for the month and +1.4% from the year-ago number. All of this data can be seen through the prism of tariff realities — both those already levied and those anticipated, which led to much higher trading volume ahead of reciprocal tariffs, which remain murky looking ahead.
What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market
Once the regular trading day gets going, Pending Home Sales for May will come out. These are expected to improve to -0.5% from -6.3% the prior month. This metric follows Wednesday’s New Home Sales tallies, which came way down to 623K in May from an estimate of 695K and -99K month over month. Existing Home Sales, released on Monday, outperformed expectations: 4.03 million versus 3.95 million projected.
While Q2 earnings season is unofficially a couple weeks away, Nike (NKE - Free Report) posts fiscal Q4 results after today’s closing bell. This is a good representative of an American manufacturer with deep ties to Asia and this year’s new tariff realities. As such, Nike is expected to bring in earnings down -88% year over year and -15% on revenues. Yet the company has a 7-straight quarterly earnings beat, with a trailing 4-quarter average of +42.5%.
Image: Bigstock
Big Changes in Economic Data, Pre-Markets Hold Gains
Thursday, June 26, 2025
Pre-market futures are up this morning, though by slimmer margins upon a bevy of economic data hitting the tape. The Nasdaq, nearing all-time highs as of Wednesday’s close (and getting there on the Nasdaq 100) is down 40 points to 74 at this hour. The Dow went from 105 to 90 points and the S&P 500 has remained constant at 15 points.
Weekly Jobless Claims Notably Mixed
While Initial Jobless Claims have come down -9K to 236K from a slightly upwardly revised 245K the prior week — which is good: the lowest print since mid-May, in fact — it’s Continuing Claims that carries the bigger story this morning. Longer-term jobless claims reached 1.974 million two weeks ago (Continuing Claims are reported a week in arrears from new claims), above 1.9 million for the fifth-straight week and the highest level we’ve seen since mid-November of 2021.
Check this graph to see what’s gone on in Continuing Claims over the past year: for the first part of 2025, we were ping-ponging around that 1.9 million level, but now jobless claims on the longer-term side are clearly trying to break out. And, while 1.9 million is merely a psychological touch-point, once Continuing Claims reach 2 million per week, expect a change in the narrative — including from the Fed — on our steady and secure labor market.
Image Source: St Louis Federal Reserve
Pre-PCE Data Comes Down Demonstrably
The second revision of Q1 GDP usually doesn’t waver too much from estimates, but in this case, -0.5% is more than twice as low as the first revision to -0.2% (-0.3% was the original Q1 GDP print). This is the weakest quarter since Q1 2022. We see Consumption cut by more than half from the previous read: from +1.2% last time to +0.5% this morning. The PCE Index and core both tick up 10 basis points (bps) to +3.8% and +3.5%, respectively. The full Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report comes out Friday morning.
Durable Goods, Trade and Inventories Reflect Tariff Culture
The preliminary May headline for Durable Goods Orders blasted off into a new orbit: +16.4% more than doubles the +7% anticipated, led by a huge +234% change in non-defense aircraft. Stripping out airlines, airplanes and transportation, we see a still-strong +0.5% — the highest print since September of last year. Officially, non-defense, ex-aircraft came in at +1.7%, and that’s the largest tally we’ve seen since January.
The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance for May reached -$96.6 billion, sinking deeper from the upwardly revised -$87.0 billion. We’re thankfully off the early 2025 levels that hit record lows in March of -$162 billion, but still pretty deep in the hole. Imports remained fairly steady but Exports fell -5.2% for the month.
Advanced Retail Inventories in May jumped to +0.3% month over month and +3.2% year over year. Advanced Wholesale Inventories, on the other hand, sank -0.3% for the month and +1.4% from the year-ago number. All of this data can be seen through the prism of tariff realities — both those already levied and those anticipated, which led to much higher trading volume ahead of reciprocal tariffs, which remain murky looking ahead.
What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market
Once the regular trading day gets going, Pending Home Sales for May will come out. These are expected to improve to -0.5% from -6.3% the prior month. This metric follows Wednesday’s New Home Sales tallies, which came way down to 623K in May from an estimate of 695K and -99K month over month. Existing Home Sales, released on Monday, outperformed expectations: 4.03 million versus 3.95 million projected.
While Q2 earnings season is unofficially a couple weeks away, Nike (NKE - Free Report) posts fiscal Q4 results after today’s closing bell. This is a good representative of an American manufacturer with deep ties to Asia and this year’s new tariff realities. As such, Nike is expected to bring in earnings down -88% year over year and -15% on revenues. Yet the company has a 7-straight quarterly earnings beat, with a trailing 4-quarter average of +42.5%.
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